The efficient global primitive equation climate model SPEEDO V2.0

The efficient primitive-equation coupled atmosphere-ocean model SPEEDO V2.0 is presented. The model includes an interactive sea-ice and land component. SPEEDO is a global earth system model of intermediate complexity. It has a horizontal resolution of T30 (triangular truncation at wave number 30) and 8 vertical layers in the atmosphere, and a horizontal resolution of 2 degrees and 20 levels in the ocean. The parameterisations in SPEEDO are developed in such a way that it is a fast model suitable for large ensembles or long runs (of O(104) years) on a typical current workstation. The model has no flux correction. We compare the mean state and inter-annual variability of the model with observational fields of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular the atmospheric circulation, the midlatitude patterns of variability and teleconnections from the tropics are well simulated. To show the capabilities of the model, we performed a long control run and an ensemble experiment with enhanced greenhouse gases. The long control run shows that the model is stable. CO2 doubling and future climate change scenario experiments show a climate sensitivity of 1.84KW-1m2, which is within the range of state-of-the-art climate models. The spatial response patterns are comparable to state-of-the-art, higher resolution models. However, for very high greenhouse gas concentrations the parameterisations are not valid. We conclude that the model is suitable for past, current and future climate simulations and for exploring wide parameter ranges and mechanisms of variability. However, as with any model, users should be careful when using the model beyond the range of physical realism of the parameterisations and model setup

Survival of Listeria monocytogenes on a conveyor belt material with or without antimicrobial additives

Survival of Listeria monocytogenes on a conveyor belt material with or without antimicrobial additives, in the absence or presence of food debris from meat, fish and vegetables and at temperatures of 10, 25 and 37 °C was investigated. The pathogen survived best at 10 °C, and better at 25 °C than at 37 °C on both conveyor belt materials. The reduction in the numbers of the pathogen on belt material with antimicrobial additives in the first 6 h at 10 °C was 0.6 log unit, which was significantly higher (P <0.05) than the reduction of 0.2 log unit on belt material without additives. Reductions were significantly less (P <0.05) in the presence of food residue. At 37 °C and 20% relative humidity, large decreases in the numbers of the pathogen on both conveyor belt materials during the first 6 h were observed. Under these conditions, there was no obvious effect of the antimicrobial substances. However, at 25 °C and 10 °C and high humidity (60–75% rh), a rapid decrease in bacterial numbers on the belt material with antimicrobial substances was observed. Apparently the reduction in numbers of L. monocytogenes on belt material with antimicrobial additives was greater than on belt material without additives only when the surfaces were wet. Moreover, the presence of food debris neutralized the effect of the antimicrobials. The results suggest that the antimicrobial additives in conveyor belt material could help to reduce numbers of microorganisms on belts at low temperatures when food residues are absent and belts are not rapidly drie

Reproductive management in pigs: emphasis on the different roles of the boar and on optimal insemination management

Boars have different roles in the reproductive management in pigs. Boar contact can stimulate follicle development and thereby induce oestrus, both in gilts and sows. Boar contact during oestrus is essential for good oestrus expression, which is essential for the correct timing of insemination and the proper use of boar contact during insemination can stimulate sperm transport and thereby fertilisation. Stimulation by boars clearly has an olfactory component (the boar smell), but can also have an auditory, visual and evn tactile component. The background of the different roles and some of these different components of the boar are discussed. To enable a good farrowing rate and litter size, sows should be inseminated between 0 and 24h before ovulation. However, it is not possible to accurately predict the time of ovulation in sows. Although ovulation takes place at a relatively fixed 60-75% of the duration of oestrus, the duration of oestrus varies considerably between sows and between farms, resulting in a variable ovulation time from onset of oestrus. Therefore, most farmers inseminate their sows every day of oestrus to ensure insemination within the optimal period. Since post-ovulation inseminations should be avoided, it is adviced to only inseminate sows while they still show an optimal standing respons

Darkling beetles (Alphitobius diaperinus) and their larvae as potential vectors for the transfer of Campylobacter jejuni and Salmonella enterica serovar paratyphi B variant Java between successive broiler flocks

Broiler flocks often become infected with Campylobacter and Salmonella, and the exact contamination routes are still not fully understood. Insects like darkling beetles and their larvae may play a role in transfer of the pathogens between consecutive cycles. In this study, several groups of beetles and their larvae were artificially contaminated with a mixture of Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi B Variant Java and three C. jejuni strains and kept for different time intervals before they were fed to individually housed chicks. Most inoculated insects were positive for Salmonella and Campylobacter just before they were fed to the chicks. However, Campylobacter could not be isolated from insects that were kept for 1 week before they were used to mimic an empty week between rearing cycles. All broilers fed insects that were inoculated with pathogens on the day of feeding showed colonization with Campylobacter and Salmonella at levels of 50 to 100%. Transfer of both pathogens by groups of insects that were kept for 1 week before feeding to the chicks was also observed, but at lower levels. Naturally contaminated insects that were collected at a commercial broiler farm colonized broilers at low levels as well. In conclusion, the fact that Salmonella and Campylobacter can be transmitted via beetles and their larvae to flocks in successive rearing cycles indicates that there should be intensive control programs for exclusion of these insects from broiler houses

Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM

Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins. Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to 1961–1990. We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series

Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt

Here we present a set of regional climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In this study, the latest observations and results obtained with state-of-the-art climate models are combined. In addition, regional effects due to ocean dynamics and changes in the Earth’s gravity field induced by melting of land-based ice masses have been taken into account. The climate scenarios are constructed for the target years 2050 and 2100, for both a moderate and a large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature (2 °C and 4 °C in 2100 respectively). The climate scenarios contain contributions from changes in ocean density (global thermal expansion and local steric changes related to changing ocean dynamics) and changes in ocean mass (melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and (minor) terrestrial water-storage contributions). All major components depend on the global temperature rise achieved in the target periods considered. The resulting set of climate scenarios represents our best estimate of twenty-first century sea level rise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, given the current understanding of the various contributions. For 2100, they yield a local rise of 30 to 55 cm and 40 to 80 cm for the moderate and large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature, respectively. <br/

Tropical Pacific–Driven Decadel Energy Transport Variability

Abstract The atmospheric energy transport variability associated with decadal sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is studied using an atmospheric primitive equation model coupled to a slab mixed layer. The decadal variability is prescribed as an anomalous surface heat flux that represents the reduced ocean heat transport in the tropical Pacific when it is anomalously warm. The atmospheric energy transport increases and compensates for the reduced ocean heat transport. Increased transport by the mean meridional overturning (i.e., the strengthening of the Hadley cells) causes increased poleward energy transport. The subtropical jets increase in strength and shift equatorward, and in the midlatitudes the transients are affected. NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data show that the warming of the tropical Pacific in the 1980s compared to the early 1970s seems to have caused very similar changes in atmospheric energy transport indicating that these atmospheric transport variations were driven from the tropical Pacific. To study the implication of these changes for the coupled climate system an ocean model is driven with winds obtained from the atmosphere model. The poleward ocean heat transport increased when simulated wind anomalies associated with decadal tropical Pacific variability were used, showing a negative feedback between decadal variations in the mean meridional circulation in the atmosphere and in the Pacific Ocean. The Hadley cells and subtropical cells act to stabilize each other on the decadal time scale