Inverse modeling and mapping US air quality influences of inorganic PM_(2.5) precursor emissions using the adjoint of GEOS-Chem

Influences of specific sources of inorganic PM_(2.5) on peak and ambient aerosol concentrations in the US are evaluated using a combination of inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. First, sulfate and nitrate aerosol measurements from the IMPROVE network are assimilated using the four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) method into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model in order to constrain emissions estimates in four separate month-long inversions (one per season). Of the precursor emissions, these observations primarily constrain ammonia (NH_3). While the net result is a decrease in estimated US~NH_3 emissions relative to the original inventory, there is considerable variability in adjustments made to NH_3 emissions in different locations, seasons and source sectors, such as focused decreases in the midwest during July, broad decreases throughout the US~in January, increases in eastern coastal areas in April, and an effective redistribution of emissions from natural to anthropogenic sources. Implementing these constrained emissions, the adjoint model is applied to quantify the influences of emissions on representative PM_(2.5) air quality metrics within the US. The resulting sensitivity maps display a wide range of spatial, sectoral and seasonal variability in the susceptibility of the air quality metrics to absolute emissions changes and the effectiveness of incremental emissions controls of specific source sectors. NH_3 emissions near sources of sulfur oxides (SO_x) are estimated to most influence peak inorganic PM_(2.5) levels in the East; thus, the most effective controls of NH_3 emissions are often disjoint from locations of peak NH_3 emissions. Controls of emissions from industrial sectors of SO_x and NO_x are estimated to be more effective than surface emissions, and changes to NH_3 emissions in regions dominated by natural sources are disproportionately more effective than regions dominated by anthropogenic sources. NOx controls are most effective in northern states in October; in January, SO_x controls may be counterproductive. When considering ambient inorganic PM_(2.5) concentrations, intercontinental influences are small, though transboundary influences within North America are significant, with SO_x emissions from surface sources in Mexico contributing almost a fourth of the total influence from this sector

Specific Adhesion of Membranes Simultaneously Supports Dual Heterogeneities in Lipids and Proteins

Membrane adhesion is a vital component of many biological processes. Heterogeneities in lipid and protein composition are often associated with the adhesion site. These heterogeneities are thought to play functional roles in facilitating signalling. Here we experimentally examine this phenomenon using model membranes made of a mixture of lipids that is near a phase boundary at room temperature. Non-adherent model membranes are in a well-mixed, disordered-fluid lipid phase indicated by homogeneous distribution of a fluorescent dye that is a marker for the fluid-disordered (Ld) phase. We specifically adhere membranes to a flat substrate bilayer using biotin–avidin binding. Adhesion produces two types of coexisting heterogeneities: an ordered lipid phase that excludes binding proteins and the fluorescent membrane dye, and a disordered lipid phase that is enriched in both binding proteins and membrane dye compared with the non-adhered portion of the same membrane. Thus, a single type of adhesion interaction (biotin–avidin binding), in an initially-homogeneous system, simultaneously stabilizes both ordered-phase and disordered-phase heterogeneities that are compositionally distinct from the non-adhered portion of the vesicle. These heterogeneities are long-lived and unchanged upon increased temperature.This work was funded by start-up funds from The University of Texas at Austin (UT Austin) to VDG. MR was supported in part by undergraduate research fellowships from UT Austin. We are grateful to Professor Jeanne Stachowiak (Biomedical Engineering, UT Austin) for helpful conversations about membrane formation and to her and her group for technical assistance. We thank Professor Ernst-Ludwig Florin (Physics, UT Austin) for the extruder and for cover glasses. We thank Professor Lauren Ehrlich (Molecular Biosciences, UT Austin) for helpful conversations about the immune synapse.Center for Nonlinear Dynamic

Pattern formation in cell-sized membranes

The research presented in this dissertation follows in the tradition of experimental membrane biophysics. Our goal is to study the physical mechanisms underlying organization in the plasma membrane of living cells by using model systems. The central result from our experiments is that mixed-lipid membrane vesicles that are adhered by proteins to a solid-supported lipid membrane can dynamically form long-lived holes at the adhesion interface between the membranes. The first set of experiments we discuss exhibit the stable persistence of static patterns. The patterns are formed by adhering ternary-lipid vesicle membranes to a planar membrane supported on a solid, glass substrate \textit{via} biotin-avidin binding. The membrane and avidin are marked with spectrally distinct fluorescent dyes. We use fluorescence microscopy to acquire data. Adhesion causes half of adhered vesicles to form rough annular patterns with a central region that is devoid of membrane dye and protein binders. The peripheral region is dense in proteins and enriched in dye compared to the free, non-adhered portion of the same membrane. We measure the volume V and surface area A of adhered membranes. Using the measure 6[square root of pi]V/A[superscript 3/2] we find 0.84 for patterned and 0.98 for non-patterned membranes. Thus, adhered vesicles have two equilibrium states, one with annular patterns and one without, and the transition between them involves a loss of internal volume. Collectively our results suggest the annular patterns are holes. Finally, we report on a dynamic pattern that occurs in binary-lipid membranes adhered to a supported lipid bilayer. The pattern consists of finger-shaped holes that invade the protein-bound region. We show the characteristics of the fingers depend on the density [rho] of the protein binders in the adhered region: the width of static fingers [lambda] scales as [lambda] \sim\ [rho] and the rate of finger formation r, defined as the number of fingers that branch off from a boundary per unit time, scales as ln [r] \sim\ [rho]. Theoretically, we treat the formation of a finger as a thermally activated event occurring in a tense elastic film. The activation energy required to form a finger is approximately 3.5 kT, a biologically relevant energy scale.Physic

Decadal-scale modulation of the NAO/AO by external forcing: Current state of understanding

Analyses of observations show correlations between the mean state of indices representing either the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or the Arctic Oscillation (AO, also called Northern Annular Mode) with various external forcings. These include volcanic eruptions, solar variability, greenhouse gas levels and stratospheric ozone depletion. Climate model simulations have been able to reproduce many aspects of these correlations over a variety of time scales ranging from interannual to century scale. This has allowed some insight to be gained into how external forcings modulate these intrinsic variability patterns. I review current understanding derived from comparisons of a range of models with observations to highlight areas of commonality as well as remaining uncertainties. Contrasts between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres suggest that much of the response to external forcing occurs via wave-driven processes. Comparison of the response to forcings at different levels in the atmosphere indicate a sizeable role for both stratospheric and surface-level perturbations. Implications for forcing of changes in Mediterranean climate are presented for pre-industrial times during the last millennium, for the twentieth century, and for the potential future

The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate regional temperature responses may provide additional insight

Climate and air-quality benefits of a realistic phase-out of fossil fuels

The combustion of fossil fuels produces emissions of the long-lived greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and of short-lived pollutants, including sulfur dioxide, that contribute to the formation of atmospheric aerosols1. Atmospheric aerosols can cool the climate, masking some of the warming effect that results from the emission of greenhouse gases1. However, aerosol particulates are highly toxic when inhaled, leading to millions of premature deaths per year2,3. The phasing out of unabated fossil-fuel combustion will therefore provide health benefits, but will also reduce the extent to which the warming induced by greenhouse gases is masked by aerosols. Because aerosol levels respond much more rapidly to changes in emissions relative to carbon dioxide, large near-term increases in the magnitude and rate of climate warming are predicted in many idealized studies that typically assume an instantaneous removal of all anthropogenic or fossil-fuel-related emissions1,4,5,6,7,8,9. Here we show that more realistic modelling scenarios do not produce a substantial near-term increase in either the magnitude or the rate of warming, and in fact can lead to a decrease in warming rates within two decades of the start of the fossil-fuel phase-out. Accounting for the time required to transform power generation, industry and transportation leads to gradually increasing and largely offsetting climate impacts of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, with the rate of warming further slowed by reductions in fossil-methane emissions. Our results indicate that even the most aggressive plausible transition to a clean-energy society provides benefits for climate change mitigation and air quality at essentially all decadal to centennial timescales

Evaluation of the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential

The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28degS, 28degS-28degN, 28-60degN and 60-90degN) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within +/-20%of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28degS and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the +/-20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45% and 9-39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely

An exploration of ozone changes and their radiative forcing prior to the chlorofluorocarbon era

International audienceUsing historical observations and model simulations, we investigate ozone trends prior to the mid-1970s onset of halogen-induced ozone depletion. Though measurements are quite limited, an analysis based on multiple, independent data sets (direct and indirect) provides better constraints than any individual set of observations. We find that three data sets support an apparent long-term stratospheric ozone trend of -7.2 ± 2.3 DU during 1957-1975, which modeling attributes primarily to water vapor increases. The results suggest that 20th century stratospheric ozone depletion may have been roughly 50% more than is generally supposed. Similarly, three data sets support tropospheric ozone increases over polluted Northern Hemisphere continental regions of 8.2 ± 2.1 DU during this period, which are mutually consistent with the stratospheric trends. As with paleoclimate data, which is also based on indirect proxies and/or limited spatial coverage, these results must be interpreted with caution. However, they provide the most thorough estimates presently available of ozone changes prior to the coincident onset of satellite data and halogen dominated ozone changes. If these apparent trends were real, the radiative forcing by stratospheric ozone since the 1950s would then have been -0.15 ± 0.05 W/m2, and -0.2 W/m2 since the preindustrial. For tropospheric ozone, it would have been 0.38 ± 0.10 W/m2 since the late 1950s. Combined with even a very conservative estimate of tropospheric ozone forcing prior to that time, this would be larger than current estimates since 1850 which are derived from models that are even less well constrained. These calculations demonstrate the importance of gaining a better understanding of historical ozone changes