Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020: the Right to Sight: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: Many causes of vision impairment can be prevented or treated. With an ageing global population, the demands for eye health services are increasing. We estimated the prevalence and relative contribution of avoidable causes of blindness and vision impairment globally from 1990 to 2020. We aimed to compare the results with the World Health Assembly Global Action Plan (WHA GAP) target of a 25% global reduction from 2010 to 2019 in avoidable vision impairment, defined as cataract and undercorrected refractive error. Methods: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) of moderate and severe vision impairment (MSVI; presenting visual acuity from <6/18 to 3/60) and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10° visual field around central fixation) by cause, age, region, and year. Because of data sparsity at younger ages, our analysis focused on adults aged 50 years and older. Findings: Global crude prevalence of avoidable vision impairment and blindness in adults aged 50 years and older did not change between 2010 and 2019 (percentage change −0·2% [95% UI −1·5 to 1·0]; 2019 prevalence 9·58 cases per 1000 people [95% IU 8·51 to 10·8], 2010 prevalence 96·0 cases per 1000 people [86·0 to 107·0]). Age-standardised prevalence of avoidable blindness decreased by −15·4% [–16·8 to −14·3], while avoidable MSVI showed no change (0·5% [–0·8 to 1·6]). However, the number of cases increased for both avoidable blindness (10·8% [8·9 to 12·4]) and MSVI (31·5% [30·0 to 33·1]). The leading global causes of blindness in those aged 50 years and older in 2020 were cataract (15·2 million cases [9% IU 12·7–18·0]), followed by glaucoma (3·6 million cases [2·8–4·4]), undercorrected refractive error (2·3 million cases [1·8–2·8]), age-related macular degeneration (1·8 million cases [1·3–2·4]), and diabetic retinopathy (0·86 million cases [0·59–1·23]). Leading causes of MSVI were undercorrected refractive error (86·1 million cases [74·2–101·0]) and cataract (78·8 million cases [67·2–91·4]). Interpretation: Results suggest eye care services contributed to the observed reduction of age-standardised rates of avoidable blindness but not of MSVI, and that the target in an ageing global population was not reached. Funding: Brien Holden Vision Institute, Fondation Théa, The Fred Hollows Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Lions Clubs International Foundation, Sightsavers International, and University of Heidelberg

The incidence rate of tuberculosis and its associated factors among HIV-positive persons in Sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Abstract Background Tuberculosis, along with HIV, is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity globally. Despite the fact that several primary studies have been conducted on the incidence rate of tuberculosis in HIV-infected people in Sub-Saharan Africa, the regional-level tuberculosis incidence rate remains unknown. The objective of this study is to determine the tuberculosis incidence rate and its associated factors in HIV-infected people in Sub-Saharan Africa. Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted by searching four databases for studies published in English between January 1, 2000, and November 25, 2022. The study was carried out using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. To assess the quality of the studies, the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal checklist was used. A random-effects model meta-analysis was used to determine the pooled incidence of tuberculosis using STATA version 15. The I2 heterogeneity test was used to assess heterogeneity. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed. Funnel plots and Egger’s regression tests were used to investigate publication bias. The pooled estimate predictors of tuberculosis incidence rate with a 95% confidence interval were also determined using the hazard ratio of each factor (HR). Results Out of a total of 3339 studies, 43 were included in the analysis. The overall pooled incidence rate of tuberculosis in HIV-infected people was 3.49 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 2.88–4.17). In the subgroup analysis, the pooled incidence rate of tuberculosis in HIV-infected children was 3.42 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.78, 5.57), and it was 3.79 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 2.63, 5.15) in adults. A meta-analysis revealed that underweight (AHR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.61–1.96), low CD4 count (AHR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.13–1.35), male gender (AHR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.22–1.64), advanced WHO clinical stages (AHR = 2.29, 95% CI: 1.34–3.23), anemia (AHR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34–2.13), bedridden or ambulatory (AHR = 1.87, 95%), lack of isoniazid preventive therapy (AHR = 3.32, 95% CI: 1.08–2.28), and lack of cotrimoxazole (AHR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.08–2.28) were risk factors for tuberculosis incidence. HIV patients who received antiretroviral therapy had a 0.53 times higher risk of acquiring tuberculosis than HIV patients who did not receive antiretroviral therapy (AHR = 0.53; 95% CI: 0.3–0.77). Conclusion In this systematic review and meta-analysis study, the incidence rate of tuberculosis among HIV-positive people was higher than the WHO 2022 Africa regional estimated report. To reduce the incidence of tuberculosis among HIV patients, HIV patients should take isoniazid prevention therapy (IPT), cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) without interruption, as well as increase the frequency and diversity of their nutritional intake. Active tuberculosis screening should be increased among HIV-infected people

Table_2_COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.DOCX

BackgroundThe COVID-19 mortality rate continues to be high in low-income countries like Ethiopia as the new variant’s transmission expands and the countries’ limited capacity to combat the disease causes severe outcomes, including deaths. The aim of this study is to determine the magnitude of the COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia.MethodsThe main electronic databases searched were PubMed, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and African journals online. The included studies’ qualities were assessed independently using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The data was extracted in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format. The pooled effect size and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals across studies were determined using the random-effects model. I2 is used to estimate the percentage of overall variation across studies due to heterogeneity. Egger’s test and funnel plot were used to find the published bias. A subgroup analysis was conducted. The effect of a single study on the overall estimation was determined by sensitivity analysis.ResultsA total of 21 studies with 42,307 study participants were included in the final analysis. The pooled prevalence of COVID-19 mortality was 14.44% (95% CI: 10.35–19.08%), with high significant heterogeneity (I2 = 98.92%, p ConclusionA significant number of COVID-19 patients died in Ethiopia. COVID-19 patients with comorbidities, particularly those with cardiovascular disease, should receive special attention to reduce COVID-19 mortality.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, registration identifier (ID) CRD42020165740.</p

Table_2_The incidence of surgical site infection and its predictors among women delivered via cesarean sections in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.DOCX

BackgroundAlthough surgical wound infection remains a serious issue worldwide, the disease burden is greater in developing countries, including Ethiopia. Even though there were primary studies conducted at district levels in Ethiopia, there is little evidence about the pooled incidence of surgical site infections at the national level. Thus, this systematic review and meta-analysis determined the pooled incidence of surgical site infection and its associated factors among cesarean-delivered women in Ethiopia.MethodsWe searched PubMed, CINAHL, African Journals Online, Google Scholar, and higher educational institutional repositories. A random-effects model was used to estimate the pooled effect size with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Funnel plot and egger tests were computed to determine the existence of publication bias. A subgroup analysis was carried out.ResultsTwenty-three studies were included in the final analysis. The pooled incidence of surgical site infection among women delivered via cesarean section was 12.32% (95% CI: 8.96–16.11%). Rural residence (AOR = 2.51, 95% CI: 1.15–3.87), membrane rupture (AOR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.24–2.85), chorioammionitis (AOR = 4.13, 95% CI: 1.45–6.8), general anesthesia (AOR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.22–2.75), post-operative Hgb level less than 11 mg/dL (AOR = 3.25, 95% CI: 1.54–4.96) and membrane rupture greater or equal to 12 h (AOR = 3.93, 95% CI: 1.93–5.92) were independent risk factors for surgical site infections.ConclusionMore than one in 10 women delivered via cesarean section developed surgical site infections in Ethiopia. Women living in rural areas and those with a membrane rupture, chorioammionitis, or anemia should be given special attention. General anesthesia should not be a mandatory procedure.</p

Table_3_COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.DOCX

BackgroundThe COVID-19 mortality rate continues to be high in low-income countries like Ethiopia as the new variant’s transmission expands and the countries’ limited capacity to combat the disease causes severe outcomes, including deaths. The aim of this study is to determine the magnitude of the COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia.MethodsThe main electronic databases searched were PubMed, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and African journals online. The included studies’ qualities were assessed independently using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The data was extracted in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format. The pooled effect size and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals across studies were determined using the random-effects model. I2 is used to estimate the percentage of overall variation across studies due to heterogeneity. Egger’s test and funnel plot were used to find the published bias. A subgroup analysis was conducted. The effect of a single study on the overall estimation was determined by sensitivity analysis.ResultsA total of 21 studies with 42,307 study participants were included in the final analysis. The pooled prevalence of COVID-19 mortality was 14.44% (95% CI: 10.35–19.08%), with high significant heterogeneity (I2 = 98.92%, p ConclusionA significant number of COVID-19 patients died in Ethiopia. COVID-19 patients with comorbidities, particularly those with cardiovascular disease, should receive special attention to reduce COVID-19 mortality.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, registration identifier (ID) CRD42020165740.</p

Table_4_COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.DOCX

BackgroundThe COVID-19 mortality rate continues to be high in low-income countries like Ethiopia as the new variant’s transmission expands and the countries’ limited capacity to combat the disease causes severe outcomes, including deaths. The aim of this study is to determine the magnitude of the COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia.MethodsThe main electronic databases searched were PubMed, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and African journals online. The included studies’ qualities were assessed independently using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The data was extracted in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format. The pooled effect size and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals across studies were determined using the random-effects model. I2 is used to estimate the percentage of overall variation across studies due to heterogeneity. Egger’s test and funnel plot were used to find the published bias. A subgroup analysis was conducted. The effect of a single study on the overall estimation was determined by sensitivity analysis.ResultsA total of 21 studies with 42,307 study participants were included in the final analysis. The pooled prevalence of COVID-19 mortality was 14.44% (95% CI: 10.35–19.08%), with high significant heterogeneity (I2 = 98.92%, p ConclusionA significant number of COVID-19 patients died in Ethiopia. COVID-19 patients with comorbidities, particularly those with cardiovascular disease, should receive special attention to reduce COVID-19 mortality.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, registration identifier (ID) CRD42020165740.</p

Table_1_COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.docx

BackgroundThe COVID-19 mortality rate continues to be high in low-income countries like Ethiopia as the new variant’s transmission expands and the countries’ limited capacity to combat the disease causes severe outcomes, including deaths. The aim of this study is to determine the magnitude of the COVID-19 mortality rate and its determinants in Ethiopia.MethodsThe main electronic databases searched were PubMed, CINAHL, Google Scholar, and African journals online. The included studies’ qualities were assessed independently using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. The data was extracted in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format. The pooled effect size and odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals across studies were determined using the random-effects model. I2 is used to estimate the percentage of overall variation across studies due to heterogeneity. Egger’s test and funnel plot were used to find the published bias. A subgroup analysis was conducted. The effect of a single study on the overall estimation was determined by sensitivity analysis.ResultsA total of 21 studies with 42,307 study participants were included in the final analysis. The pooled prevalence of COVID-19 mortality was 14.44% (95% CI: 10.35–19.08%), with high significant heterogeneity (I2 = 98.92%, p ConclusionA significant number of COVID-19 patients died in Ethiopia. COVID-19 patients with comorbidities, particularly those with cardiovascular disease, should receive special attention to reduce COVID-19 mortality.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, registration identifier (ID) CRD42020165740.</p