Optimal Incentive Contracts for Experts

This paper analyzes optimal incentive contracts for information acquisition and revelation. A decision maker faces the problem to design a contract that provides an expert with incentives to acquire and reveal information. We show that it is in general not optimal to reward the expert if his recommendation is confirmed. The common observation that experts are paid when their recommendation is confirmed can be explained by incomplete information about the expert's cost to increase the precision of his information. We extend the model to analyze contracting with multiple experts, the timing of expertise, and the provision of incentives when the realized state is not verifiableExpertise, Forecasting, Incentives, Information Acquisition

Star formation environments and the distribution of binary separations

We have carried out K-band speckle observations of a sample of 114 X-ray selected weak-line T Tauri stars in the nearby Scorpius-Centaurus OB association. We find that for binary T Tauri stars closely associated to the early type stars in Upper Scorpius, the youngest subgroup of the OB association, the peak in the distribution of binary separations is at 90 A.U. For binary T Tauri stars located in the direction of an older subgroup, but not closely associated to early type stars, the peak in the distribution is at 215 A.U. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov test indicates that the two binary populations do not result from the same distibution at a significance level of 98%. Apparently, the same physical conditions which facilitate the formation of massive stars also facilitate the formation of closer binaries among low-mass stars, whereas physical conditions unfavorable for the formation of massive stars lead to the formation of wider binaries among low-mass stars. The outcome of the binary formation process might be related to the internal turbulence and the angular momentum of molecular cloud cores, magnetic field, the initial temperature within a cloud, or - most likely - a combination of all of these. We conclude that the distribution of binary separations is not a universal quantity, and that the broad distribution of binary separations observed among main-sequence stars can be explained by a superposition of more peaked binary distributions resulting from various star forming environments. The overall binary frequency among pre-main-sequence stars in individual star forming regions is not necessarily higher than among main-sequence stars.Comment: 7 pages, Latex, 4 Postscript figures; also available at http://spider.ipac.caltech.edu/staff/brandner/pubs/pubs.html ; accepted for publication in ApJ Letter

Matrix theory of gravitation

A new classical theory of gravitation within the framework of general relativity is presented. It is based on a matrix formulation of four-dimensional Riemann-spaces and uses no artificial fields or adjustable parameters. The geometrical stress-energy tensor is derived from a matrix-trace Lagrangian, which is not equivalent to the curvature scalar R. To enable a direct comparison with the Einstein-theory a tetrad formalism is utilized, which shows similarities to teleparallel gravitation theories, but uses complex tetrads. Matrix theory might solve a 27-year-old, fundamental problem of those theories (sec. 4.1). For the standard test cases (PPN scheme, Schwarzschild-solution) no differences to the Einstein-theory are found. However, the matrix theory exhibits novel, interesting vacuum solutions.Comment: 24 page

Functional identity versus species richness: herbivory resistance in plant communities

The resistance of a plant community against herbivore attack may depend on plant species richness, with monocultures often much more severely affected than mixtures of plant species. Here, we used a plant–herbivore system to study the effects of selective herbivory on consumption resistance and recovery after herbivory in 81 experimental grassland plots. Communities were established from seed in 2002 and contained 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 or 60 plant species of 1, 2, 3 or 4 functional groups. In 2004, pairs of enclosure cages (1 m tall, 0.5 m diameter) were set up on all 81 plots. One randomly selected cage of each pair was stocked with 10 male and 10 female nymphs of the meadow grasshopper, Chorthippus parallelus. The grasshoppers fed for 2 months, and the vegetation was monitored over 1 year. Consumption resistance and recovery of vegetation were calculated as proportional changes in vegetation biomass. Overall, grasshopper herbivory averaged 6.8%. Herbivory resistance and recovery were influenced by plant functional group identity, but independent of plant species richness and number of functional groups. However, herbivory induced shifts in vegetation composition that depended on plant species richness. Grasshopper herbivory led to increases in herb cover at the expense of grasses. Herb cover increased more strongly in species-rich mixtures. We conclude that selective herbivory changes the functional composition of plant communities and that compositional changes due to selective herbivory depend on plant species richness

Lestaurtinib Inhibits Histone Phosphorylation and Androgen-Dependent Gene Expression in Prostate Cancer Cells

Background: Epigenetics is defined as heritable changes in gene expression that are not based on changes in the DNA sequence. Posttranslational modification of histone proteins is a major mechanism of epigenetic regulation. The kinase PRK1 (protein kinase C related kinase 1, also known as PKN1) phosphorylates histone H3 at threonine 11 and is involved in the regulation of androgen receptor signalling. Thus, it has been identified as a novel drug target but little is known about PRK1 inhibitors and consequences of its inhibition. Methodology/Principal Finding: Using a focused library screening approach, we identified the clinical candidate lestaurtinib (also known as CEP-701) as a new inhibitor of PRK1. Based on a generated 3D model of the PRK1 kinase using the homolog PKC-theta (protein kinase c theta) protein as a template, the key interaction of lestaurtinib with PRK1 was analyzed by means of molecular docking studies. Furthermore, the effects on histone H3 threonine phosphorylation and androgen-dependent gene expression was evaluated in prostate cancer cells. Conclusions/Significance: Lestaurtinib inhibits PRK1 very potently in vitro and in vivo. Applied to cell culture it inhibits histone H3 threonine phosphorylation and androgen-dependent gene expression, a feature that has not been known yet. Thus our findings have implication both for understanding of the clinical activity of lestaurtinib as well as for future PRK

The Arthropod Fauna of Oak (Quercus spp., Fagaceae) Canopies in Norway

(1) We document the invertebrate fauna collected from 24 oak canopies in east and west Norway as a contribution to the Norwegian Biodiversity Information Centre’s ‘The Norwegian Taxonomy Initiative’. (2) A snap-shot inventory of the canopies was recorded by means of emitting a mist of natural pyrethrum into the canopies at night using a petrol-driven fogger and collecting the specimens in butterfly nets spread on the ground under the canopy. (3) Almost the entire catch of more than 6800 specimens was identified to 722 species. Out of 92 species new to the Norwegian fauna, 21 were new to science and, additionally, 15 were new to the Nordic fauna. Diptera alone constituted nearly half of the species represented, with 61 new records (18 new species). Additionally, 24 Hymenoptera (one new species), six oribatid mites (two new species) and one Thysanoptera were new to the Norwegian fauna. (4) Our study emphasizes the importance of the oak tree as a habitat both for a specific fauna and occasional visitors, and it demonstrates that the canopy fogging technique is an efficient way to find the ‘hidden fauna’ of Norwegian forests. The low number of red listed species found reflects how poor the Norwegian insect fauna is still studied. Moreover, the implication of the IUCN red list criteria for newly described or newly observed species is discussed.</jats:p

Prediction of Dementia in Primary Care Patients

BACKGROUND: Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs

Photography-based taxonomy is inadequate, unnecessary, and potentially harmful for biological sciences

The question whether taxonomic descriptions naming new animal species without type specimen(s) deposited in collections should be accepted for publication by scientific journals and allowed by the Code has already been discussed in Zootaxa (Dubois & Nemésio 2007; Donegan 2008, 2009; Nemésio 2009a–b; Dubois 2009; Gentile & Snell 2009; Minelli 2009; Cianferoni & Bartolozzi 2016; Amorim et al. 2016). This question was again raised in a letter supported by 35 signatories published in the journal Nature (Pape et al. 2016) on 15 September 2016. On 25 September 2016, the following rebuttal (strictly limited to 300 words as per the editorial rules of Nature) was submitted to Nature, which on 18 October 2016 refused to publish it. As we think this problem is a very important one for zoological taxonomy, this text is published here exactly as submitted to Nature, followed by the list of the 493 taxonomists and collection-based researchers who signed it in the short time span from 20 September to 6 October 2016

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements