SPADE4: Sparsity and Delay Embedding based Forecasting of Epidemics

Predicting the evolution of diseases is challenging, especially when the data availability is scarce and incomplete. The most popular tools for modelling and predicting infectious disease epidemics are compartmental models. They stratify the population into compartments according to health status and model the dynamics of these compartments using dynamical systems. However, these predefined systems may not capture the true dynamics of the epidemic due to the complexity of the disease transmission and human interactions. In order to overcome this drawback, we propose Sparsity and Delay Embedding based Forecasting (SPADE4) for predicting epidemics. SPADE4 predicts the future trajectory of an observable variable without the knowledge of the other variables or the underlying system. We use random features model with sparse regression to handle the data scarcity issue and employ Takens' delay embedding theorem to capture the nature of the underlying system from the observed variable. We show that our approach outperforms compartmental models when applied to both simulated and real data.Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, 2 table

Social Security and Population Ageing in Vietnam: A Guarantee for the Elderly People’s Life

Demographic change affects the socio-economic development of any country. In Vietnam, the population and housing censuses from 1989 to 2019 showed an appreciable increasing proportion of the elderly in the total population and fast ageing pace. Older people have many difficulties in their life. Among them, only 27% have pensions or stable incomes, and the rest 73% live without pensions, facing many difficulties. Vietnam is a developing country, and social security policies are in the process of completion. Therefore, improving the social security system, as well as creating opportunities for active ageing and wellbeing for older people, was one of the strategic goals of the Long-Term Development Plan that Vietnam’s government has been carried out for more than half a century. In this article, the issues of demographic change, population ageing, social security system, social assistance and pension benefits as the actual sociological problem are studied by using quantitative methods and comparative analysis approach to confirm the research questions; the proposals made by the authors can be helpful for today’s reforming social security system in Vietnam and social policy making in context of ageing in Vietnam where a large number of elderly people do not have any social benefits

Domestic Enterprises in Supply Chains of Multinational Corporations: Vietnam Case Study

Abstract—Vietnam’s international integration has also changed rapidly with the trend of gradually entering the global supply chain (GSC) and global value chain (GVC) that help create a powerful dynamic for national economic development. However, the main activities of the manufacturing subsidiaries of reputable MNCs located in Vietnam often specialize in the final product assembly (final assembly schedule-FAS). Correlatively, some Vietnam’s domestic enterprises (VDEs) are engaged either in outsourcing, or become MNC suppliers, but their position in the SCs is unstable. In this article, synthesis methodology and framework of analysis were used to clarify the status of Vietnam’s suppliers and their limited power in buyer-supplier relationships and to make some recommendations that may be useful to related parties. The article also provides an overview of the unprecedented impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Vietnamese businesses, and the appropriate responses to reshape and strengthen SCs for production in VietNam

Повышение цифровых навыков: ключ к цифровой вовлеченности пожилых людей (на примере Вьетнама)

Digital transformation taking place rapidly in all aspects of socioeconomic activities across Vietnam in recent years is affecting the lives of people of all ages. Vietnamese older people, due to the impact of digitization, demographic category and socioeconomic status as well as age-related issues, become vulnerable, facing many challenges in adapting to the digital environment. In the article, the existence of a digital divide within Vietnamese older persons at different levels and the disparities in digital skills that have a dominant influence on Internet usage and benefits have been confirmed; low basic digital skills was considered as a barrier to digital inclusion of older adults in the emerging digital society. The aim of the study is to predict the socio-economic consequences and find practical solutions to improve the literacy and disease skills of people in Vietnam, including the formation of an effective form of digital literacy and digital skills training. The article proposes measures to bridge the sudden gap in human diseases and encourage their adaptation to the emerging digital societyЦифровая трансформация, быстро происходящая во всех аспектах социально-экономической деятельности во Вьетнаме в последние годы, влияет на жизнь людей всех возрастов. Пожилые вьетнамцы под влиянием цифровизации, объективных демографических и социально-экономических процессов, а также проблем, связанных с возрастом, становятся уязвимыми, сталкиваясь со многими проблемами при адаптации к цифровой среде. В статье подтверждается наличие цифрового неравенства среди пожилых вьетнамцев на разных уровнях овладения цифровыми навыками, которые оказывают доминирующее влияние на использование преимуществ сети Интернет. В ходе исследования установлено, что низкие базовые цифровые навыки послужили препятствием для интеграции пожилых людей в развивающееся цифровое общество. Цель исследования заключается в прогнозировании социально-экономических последствий и поиске практических решений по повышению цифровой грамотности и навыков пожилых людей Вьетнама, включая становление эффективных форм распространения цифровой грамотности и обучения цифровым навыкам. В статье предложены меры по преодолению цифрового разрыва среди пожилых людей и поощрению их адаптации к формирующемуся цифровому обществ

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV

Search for pair-produced long-lived neutral particles decaying to jets in the ATLAS hadronic calorimeter in ppcollisions at √s=8TeV

The ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN is used to search for the decay of a scalar boson to a pair of long-lived particles, neutral under the Standard Model gauge group, in 20.3fb−1of data collected in proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeV. This search is sensitive to long-lived particles that decay to Standard Model particles producing jets at the outer edge of the ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter or inside the hadronic calorimeter. No significant excess of events is observed. Limits are reported on the product of the scalar boson production cross section times branching ratio into long-lived neutral particles as a function of the proper lifetime of the particles. Limits are reported for boson masses from 100 GeVto 900 GeV, and a long-lived neutral particle mass from 10 GeVto 150 GeV

Evaluation of flight efficiency for Stockholm Arlanda Airport arrivals

Analysis of punctuality of airport arrivals, as well as identification of causes of the delays within transition airspace, is an important step in evaluating performance of the Terminal Maneuvering Area (TMA) Air Navigation Services: without knowing the current performance levels, it is difficult to identify which areas could be improved. Deviations from the flight plans is one of the major reasons for arrival delays. In this work, we quantified the impact of the deviations from the flight plans on the fuel burn. One of the main reasons of fuel waste is non- optimal vertical profiles during the descent phase. We calculated how much extra fuel is wasted due to vertical flight inefficiency within Stockholm TMA.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17

Background Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39.4-40.7) to 50.3% (50.0-50.5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46.3% (95% UI 46.1-46.5) in 2017, compared with 28.7% (28.5-29.0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88.6% (95% UI 87.2-89.7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664-711) of the 1830 (1797-1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76.1% (95% UI 71.6-80.7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53.9% (50.6-59.6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Copyright (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe