Opium use and risk of bladder cancer: a multi-centre case-referent study in Iran

Background Bladder cancer (BC) is the 10th most common type of cancer worldwide and the fourth most common type of cancer in Iran. Opium use is considered as one of the risk factors for BC. We aim to assess the association between various parameters of opium use, which in Iran is mainly ingested or smoked in various forms, and the risk of BC. Method In this multi-centre case-referent study in Iran, 717 BC cases and 3477 referents were recruited to the study from May 2017 until July 2020. Detailed histories of opium use (duration, amount, frequency) and potential confounders were collected by trained interviewers. Multivariable unconditional logistic regression models were used to measure adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The ORs were adjusted for age, gender, place of residence and pack-years of cigarette smoking. Results Regular opium consumption was associated with an increased risk of BC (OR 3.5, 95% CI: 2.8, 4.3) compared with subjects who never used opium. Compared with continuous users, the risk decreased to one-third for those who stopped opium more than 10 years ago. The adjusted OR for those who used both crude opium (teriak) and opium juice was 7.4 (95% CI: 4.1, 13.3). There was a joint effect of opium and tobacco (OR for users of both opium and tobacco 7.7, 95% CI: 6.0, 9.7). Conclusions Regular opium use is associated with an approximately 4-fold risk for BC. The OR decreases along with the increasing time since stopping opium use

Association between dietary fat intake and colorectal cancer : A multicenter case-control study in Iran

The evolving trends in colorectal cancer (CRC) as one of the most common malignancies worldwide, have likely been influenced by the implementation of screening programs and changes in lifestyle habits. Changing lifestyle, including the shift in diet composition with higher fat, sugar, and animal-source foods intake, led to an increasing burden of CRC in countries undergoing rapid socioeconomic improvement. Results for the link between specific fatty acids (FAs) and CRC are generally inconclusive and more limited in developing countries than elsewhere. This study aims to investigate the association between FA intakes and CRC and its anatomical subsites in a large Iranian case-control study. A food frequency questionnaire was used to collect information on dietary intake in 865 cases and 3206 controls. We conducted multivariate logistic regression models to calculate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). We found positive association between CRC and high intake of dietary total fat (OR highest quartile Q4 = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.32–2.38), cholesterol (ORQ4 = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.22–2.05), and palmitoleic acid (ORQ4 = 2.16, 95% CI = 1.19, 3.91), and an inverse association with high intake of dietary heptanoic acid (ORQ4 = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.14, 0.79) and low intake of palmitic acid (OR lowest quartile Q2 = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.31–0.88). None of the fat variables were associated with rectal cancer. Our study suggests that the recommendation of limited consumption of fats may decrease the risk of CRC among the Iranian population.publishedVersionPeer reviewe

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Opium use and risk of lung cancer : A multicenter case-control study in Iran

Opium use was recently classified as a human carcinogen for lung cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We conducted a large, multicenter case-control study evaluating the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. We recruited 627 cases and 3477 controls from May 2017 to July 2020. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and measured the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. The ORs were adjusted for the residential place, age, gender, socioeconomic status, cigarettes, and water pipe smoking. We found a 3.6-fold risk of lung cancer for regular opium users compared to never users (95% CI: 2.9, 4.6). There was a strong dose-response association between a cumulative count of opium use and lung cancer risk. The OR for regular opium use was higher for small cell carcinoma than in other histology (8.3, 95% CI: 4.8, 14.4). The OR of developing lung cancer among opium users was higher in females (7.4, 95% CI: 3.8, 14.5) than in males (3.3, 95% CI: 2.6, 4.2). The OR for users of both opium and tobacco was 13.4 (95% CI: 10.2, 17.7) compared to nonusers of anything. The risk of developing lung cancer is higher in regular opium users, and these results strengthen the conclusions on the carcinogenicity of opium. The association is stronger for small cell carcinoma cases than in other histology.Peer reviewe

Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances : global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care. Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result. Results Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America). Conclusions The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.Peer reviewe

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe