The Incremental Information Content of Tone Change in Management Discussion and Analysis

This study explores whether the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of Form 10-Q and 10-K has incremental information content beyond financial measures such as earnings surprises, accruals and operating cash flows (OCF). It uses a well-established classification scheme of words into positive and negative categories to measure the tone change in a specific MD&A section as compared to those of the prior four filings. Our results indicate that short window market reactions around the SEC filing are significantly associated with the tone of the MD&A section, even after controlling for accruals, OCF and earnings surprises. We also show that the tone of the MD&A section adds significantly to portfolio drift returns in the window of two days after the SEC filing date through one day after the subsequent quarter’s preliminary earnings announcement, beyond financial information conveyed by accruals, OCF and earnings surprises. The incremental information of tone change is larger the weaker is the firm’s information environment

The Incremental Information Content of Tone Change in Management Discussion and Analysis

This study explores whether the Management Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of Form 10-Q and 10-K has incremental information content beyond financial measures such as earnings surprises, accruals and operating cash flows (OCF). It uses a well-established classification scheme of words into positive and negative categories to measure the tone change in a specific MD&A section as compared to those of the prior four filings. Our results indicate that short window market reactions around the SEC filing are significantly associated with the tone of the MD&A section, even after controlling for accruals, OCF and earnings surprises. We also show that the tone of the MD&A section adds significantly to portfolio drift returns in the window of two days after the SEC filing date through one day after the subsequent quarter’s preliminary earnings announcement, beyond financial information conveyed by accruals, OCF and earnings surprises. The incremental information of tone change is larger the weaker is the firm’s information environment

Regulating E-Cigarettes: Why Policies Diverge

This paper, part of a festschrift in honor of Professor Malcolm Feeley, explores the landscape of e-cigarette policy globally by looking at three jurisdictions that have taken starkly different approaches to regulating e-cigarettes—the US, Japan, and China. Each of those countries has a robust tobacco industry, government agencies entrusted with protecting public health, an active and sophisticated scientific and medical community, and a regulatory structure for managing new pharmaceutical, tobacco, and consumer products. All three are signatories of the World Health Organization’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, all are signatories of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, and all are members of the World Trade Organization. Which legal, economic, social and political differences between the three countries explain their diverse approaches to regulating e-cigarettes? Why have they embraced such dramatically different postures toward e-cigarettes? In seeking to answer those questions, the paper builds on Feeley\u27s legacy of comparative scholarship, policy analysis, and focus on law in action

Informing the NHS Outcomes Framework : evaluating meaningful health outcomes for children with neurodisability using multiple methods including systematic review, qualitative research, Delphi survey and consensus meeting

Background: The identification of suitable outcome measures will improve the evaluation of integrated NHS care for the large number of children affected by neurodisability, and has the potential to encourage the provision of more appropriate and effective health care. This research sought to appraise the potential of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for children and young people with neurodisability. Aim: This research aimed (i) to identify key outcomes of health care for children with neurodisability, beyond morbidity and mortality, from the perspectives of children, parents and professionals, (ii) to critically appraise existing generic multidimensional PROMs, and (iii) to examine whether or not the key outcomes might be measured by existing PROMs. We also sought agreement on a definition of neurodisability. Methods: Data were gathered in three main ways, (i) a systematic review identified eligible generic multidimensional PROMs and peer-reviewed studies evaluating psychometric performance using English-language questionnaires. Studies were appraised for methodological quality and psychometric performance was appraised using standard criteria. (ii) Focus groups and interviews with children and young people with neurodisability, and separately with parents, sought to identify important outcomes of NHS care, and their feedback on example PROM questionnaires. (iii) An online Delphi survey was conducted with a multidisciplinary sample of health professionals to seek agreement on appropriate NHS outcomes. In addition, we convened a consensus meeting with a small nominal group of young people, parents and professionals, the group sought agreement on a core set of important health outcomes. Results: From the systematic review, we identified 126 papers that reported eligible evidence regarding the psychometric performance of 25 PROMs. Evidence of psychometric robustness was more favourable for a small number of PROMs: KIDSCREEN (generic), DISABKIDS (chronic-generic) and Child Health Utility 9D (preference-based measure). The Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory and KINDL offer both self-report and a proxy report version for a range of age bands, but evidence of their psychometric performance was weaker. Evidence was lacking in one or more respects for all candidate PROMs, in both general populations and those with neurodisability. Proxy reporting was found generally to be poorly correlated with self-report. Focus groups and interviews included 54 children and young people, and 53 parents. The more important health outcomes were felt to be communication, emotional well-being, pain, mobility, independence/self-care, worry/mental health, social activities and sleep. In addition, parents of children with intellectual impairment identified behaviour, toileting and safety as important outcomes. Participants suggested problems with the face validity of example PROM questionnaires for measuring NHS care. In the Delphi survey, 276 clinicians from a wide range of professions contributed to at least one of four rounds. Professionals rated pain, hearing, seeing, sleep, toileting, mobility and communication as key goals for the NHS but also identified treating neurological symptoms as important. Professionals in the Delphi survey and parents working with the research team agreed a proposed definition for neurodisability. The consensus meeting confirmed overlap between the outcomes identified as important by young people, parents and professionals, but not complete agreement. Conclusions: There was agreement between young people, parents and professionals regarding a core suite of more important health outcomes: communication, emotional well-being, pain, mobility, independence/self-care, worry/mental health, social activities and sleep. In addition, behaviour, toileting and safety were identified as important by parents. This research suggests that it would be appropriate to measure these constructs using PROMs to assess health care. None of the candidate PROMs in the review adequately captures all of the identified constructs, and there is inadequate evidence that candidate PROMs are psychometrically robust for use across children with neurodisability. Further consultation with young people, families and professionals is warranted to support the use of PROMs to measure NHS outcomes. Research to test potential PROMs with different age groups and conditions would be valuable

Frst-an interactive revision system for forward chaining rule bases

One of the main problems in building rule based systems is that the knowledge elicited from experts is not always correct. Therefore there is a need for means of revising the rule base whenever an inaccuracy is discovered. The rule base revision is the problem of how best to go about revising a deficient rule base using information contained in cases that expose inaccuracies. The revision process is very sensitive to implicit and explicit biases that are encoded in the specific revision algorithm employed. In a sense, each revision algorithm must provide two forms of biases. The first bias governs the preferred location in the rule base for the correction, while the second bias governs the type of correction performed. In this paper we present a system for incremental revision of rule bases called FRST (Forward chaining Revision SysTem). This system enables the user to analyze the impact of different revisions and to select the most appropriate revision operator. The user provides the required bias by using a special bias language which was designed specifically for use in rule based systems. 1 1