What Determines Foreign Aid to Papua New Guinea? An Inter-temporal Model of Aid Allocation

foreign aid, allocation, Papua New Guinea, time-series

Aid, Public Sector Fiscal Behaviour and Developing Country Debt

aid, borrowing, debt, fiscal behaviour

A view from the Bridge: agreement between the SF-6D utility algorithm and the Health utilities Index

BACKGROUND: The SF-6D is a new health state classification and utility scoring system based on 6 dimensions (‘6D’) of the Short Form 36, and permits a ‘‘bridging’’ transformation between SF-36 responses and utilities. The Health Utilities Index, mark 3 (HUI3) is a valid and reliable multi-attribute health utility scale that is widely used. We assessed within-subject agreement between SF-6D utilities and those from HUI3. METHODS: Patients at increased risk of sudden cardiac death and participating in a randomized trial of implantable defibrillator therapy completed both instruments at baseline. Score distributions were inspected by scatterplot and histogram and mean score differences compared by paired t-test. Pearson correlation was computed between instrument scores and also between dimension scores within instruments. Between-instrument agreement was by intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS: SF-6D and HUI3 forms were available from 246 patients. Mean scores for HUI3 and SF-6D were 0.61 (95% CI 0.60–0.63) and 0.58 (95% CI 0.54–0.62) respectively; a difference of 0.03 (p50.03). Score intervals for HUI3 and SF-6D were (-0.21 to 1.0) and (0.30–0.95). Correlation between the instrument scores was 0.58 (95% CI 0.48–0.68) and agreement by ICC was 0.42 (95% CI 0.31–0.52). Correlations between dimensions of SF-6D were higher than for HUI3. CONCLUSIONS: Our study casts doubt on the whether utilities and QALYs estimated via SF-6D are comparable with those from HUI3. Utility differences may be due to differences in underlying concepts of health being measured, or different measurement approaches, or both. No gold standard exists for utility measurement and the SF-6D is a valuable addition that permits SF-36 data to be transformed into utilities to estimate QALYs. The challenge is developing a better understanding as to why these classification-based utility instruments differ so markedly in their distributions and point estimates of derived utilities

AN EXAMINATION OF THE LONG-RUN TRENDS AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN FOREIGN AID

This paper documents trends in official development assistance (ODA) over the last three decades. It examines trends in both aid amounts and the quality of aid. It finds that the real value of ODA has declined during the 1990s following two decades of relative stability. The share of foreign aid to Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen during the 1990s and aid flows to low-income countries have also declined, partly as a result of the diversion of aid flows to transition economies and ¡®trouble spots¡¯. The paper also finds that donor aid programs are thinly spread over many recipients. However, reductions in aid amounts have been accompanied by improvements in the quality of aid. The financial terms of aid have improved and there has been a move towards the untying of aid.Official Development Assistance, Bilateral Aid, Multilateral Aid

Aid and Growth in Fragile States

The literature on aid has come a long way in recent years, and as a result we now know much more about aid effectiveness than possibly ever before. But significant gaps in knowledge remain. One such gap is the effectiveness of aid in the so-called ?fragile states?, countries with critically low policy and institutional performance ratings. The current paper addresses this void by examining possible links between aid and economic growth in fragile states. It finds that: (i) growth would have been 1.4 percentage points lower in highly fragile states in the absence of aid to them, compared to 2.5 percentage points in other countries; (ii) highly fragile states from a per capita income growth perspective can only efficiently absorb approximately one-third of the amounts of aid that other countries can, and; (iii) while from the same perspective most fragile states are under-aided, to the extent that they could efficiently absorb greater amounts of aid than they currently receive, many of the highly fragile states are substantially over-aided in this sense. The overall conclusion is that donors need to look very closely at their aid to the sub-set of fragile states deemed in this paper as highly fragile.foreign aid, economic growth, fragile states, policies, absorptive capacity

Aid and Public Sector Fiscal Behaviour in Failing States

This paper looks at interactions between foreign aid and the public sector in developing countries, especially those considered to be fragile or failing states. A model is proposed which employs actual budgetary appropriations and revenue estimates (rather than estimated target variables) and allows for asymmetric preference. Variants of the model are estimated using time-series data for Papua New Guinea (PNG). PNG is classified as a fragile state by the international community owing to perceived policy and institutional inadequacies. Results obtained suggest that foreign aid increases consumption and investment expenditures and decreases tax revenues and the level of borrowing.Foreign aid, taxes, public spending, fungibility, fragile states, failing states, Papua New Guinea

Passive elasto-magnetic suspensions: nonlinear models and experimental outcomes

The paper presents a passive elasto-magnetic suspension based on rare-earth permanent magnets: the dynamical system is described with theoretical and numerical nonlinear models, whose results are validated through experimental compar- ison. The goal is to minimize the dependence on mass of the natural frequency of a single degree of freedom system. For a system with variable mass, static configuration and dynamical behaviour are compared for classic linear elastic systems, for purely magnetic suspensions and for a combination of the two. In particular the dynamics of the magneto-mechanic inter- action is predicted by use of nonlinear and linearised models and experimentally observed through a suitable single degree of freedom test ri