Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radically altered the dynamics of contagion for more than a decade, models quantifying their impact on systemic risk are still missing. Here, we examine contagion through credit default swaps in a stylized economic network of corporates and financial institutions. We analyse such a system using a stochastic setting, which allows us to exploit limit theorems to exactly solve the contagion dynamics for the entire system. Our analysis shows that, by creating additional contagion channels, CDS can actually lead to greater instability of the entire network in times of economic stress. This is particularly pronounced when CDS are used by banks to expand their loan books (arguing that CDS would offload the additional risks from their balance sheets). Thus, even with complete hedging through CDS, a significant loan book expansion can lead to considerably enhanced probabilities for the occurrence of very large losses and very high default rates in the system. Our approach adds a new dimension to research on credit contagion, and could feed into a rational underpinning of an improved regulatory framework for credit derivatives.Comment: 26 pages, 7 multi-part figure

Predicting the detectability of oscillations in solar-type stars observed by Kepler

Asteroseismology of solar-type stars has an important part to play in the exoplanet program of the NASA Kepler Mission. Precise and accurate inferences on the stellar properties that are made possible by the seismic data allow very tight constraints to be placed on the exoplanetary systems. Here, we outline how to make an estimate of the detectability of solar-like oscillations in any given Kepler target, using rough estimates of the temperature and radius, and the Kepler apparent magnitude.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication Astrophysical Journa

Fundamental properties of five Kepler stars using global asteroseismic quantities and ground-based observations

We present an asteroseismic study of the solar-like stars KIC 11395018, KIC 10273246, KIC 10920273, KIC 10339342, and KIC 11234888 using short-cadence time series of more than eight months from the Kepler satellite. For four of these stars, we derive atmospheric parameters from spectra acquired with the Nordic Optical Telescope. The global seismic quantities (average large frequency separation and frequency of maximum power), combined with the atmospheric parameters, yield the mean density and surface gravity with precisions of 2% and ~0.03 dex, respectively. We also determine the radius, mass, and age with precisions of 2-5%, 7-11%, and ~35%, respectively, using grid-based analyses. We determine asteroseismic distances to these stars with a precision better than 10%, and constrain the stellar inclination for three of the stars. An Li abundance analysis yields an independent estimate of the age, but this is inconsistent with the asteroseismically determined age for one of the stars. We compare the results from five different grid-based analyses, and we find that they all provide radius and mass values to within 2.4sigma. The absence of a metallicity constraint when the average large frequency separation is measured with a precision of 1% biases the fitted radius and mass for the stars with non-solar metallicity (metal-rich KIC 11395018 and metal-poor KIC 10273246), while including a metallicity constraint reduces the uncertainties in both of these parameters by almost a factor of two. We found that including the average small frequency separation improves the determination of the age only for KIC 11395018 and KIC 11234888, and for the latter this improvement was due to the lack of strong atmospheric constraints. (Abridged).Comment: accepted A&A, 14 two-column pages + appendix, 5 figures, 15 table

Gaia Data Release 1: Open cluster astrometry: performance, limitations, and future prospects

Context. The first Gaia Data Release contains the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution (TGAS). This is a subset of about 2 million stars for which, besides the position and photometry, the proper motion and parallax are calculated using Hipparcos and Tycho-2 positions in 1991.25 as prior information.Aims. We investigate the scientific potential and limitations of the TGAS component by means of the astrometric data for open clusters.Methods. Mean cluster parallax and proper motion values are derived taking into account the error correlations within the astrometric solutions for individual stars, an estimate of the internal velocity dispersion in the cluster, and, where relevant, the effects of the depth of the cluster along the line of sight. Internal consistency of the TGAS data is assessed.Results. Values given for standard uncertainties are still inaccurate and may lead to unrealistic unit-weight standard deviations of least squares solutions for cluster parameters. Reconstructed mean cluster parallax and proper motion values are generally in very good agreement with earlier HIPPARCOS-based determination, although the Gaia mean parallax for the Pleiades is a significant exception. We have no current explanation for that discrepancy. Most clusters are observed to extend to nearly 15 pc from the cluster centre, and it will be up to future Gaia releases to establish whether those potential cluster-member stars are still dynamically bound to the clusters.Conclusions. The Gaia DR1 provides the means to examine open clusters far beyond their more easily visible cores, and can provide membership assessments based on proper motions and parallaxes. A combined HR diagram shows the same features as observed before using the HIPPARCOS data, with clearly increased luminosities for older A and F dwarfs

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. // Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. // Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. // Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Background: Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. // Methods: We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung's disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. // Findings: We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung's disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middle-income countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in low-income countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. // Interpretation: Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030

Cyclized NDGA modifies dynamic α-synuclein monomers preventing aggregation and toxicity.

Growing evidence implicates α-synuclein aggregation as a key driver of neurodegeneration in Parkinson's disease (PD) and other neurodegenerative disorders. Herein, the molecular and structural mechanisms of inhibiting α-synuclein aggregation by novel analogs of nordihydroguaiaretic acid (NDGA), a phenolic dibenzenediol lignan, were explored using an array of biochemical and biophysical methodologies. NDGA analogs induced modest, progressive compaction of monomeric α-synuclein, preventing aggregation into amyloid-like fibrils. This conformational remodeling preserved the dynamic adoption of α-helical conformations, which are essential for physiological membrane interactions. Oxidation-dependent NDGA cyclization was required for the interaction with monomeric α-synuclein. NDGA analog-pretreated α-synuclein did not aggregate even without NDGA-analogs in the aggregation mixture. Strikingly, NDGA-pretreated α-synuclein suppressed aggregation of naïve untreated aggregation-competent monomeric α-synuclein. Further, cyclized NDGA reduced α-synuclein-driven neurodegeneration in Caenorhabditis elegans. The cyclized NDGA analogs may serve as a platform for the development of small molecules that stabilize aggregation-resistant α-synuclein monomers without interfering with functional conformations yielding potential therapies for PD and related disorders

Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Anaemia is a major health problem worldwide. Global estimates of anaemia burden are crucial for developing appropriate interventions to meet current international targets for disease mitigation. We describe the prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends of anaemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories. Methods We estimated population-level distributions of haemoglobin concentration by age and sex for each location from 1990 to 2021. We then calculated anaemia burden by severity and associated years lived with disability (YLDs). With data on prevalence of the causes of anaemia and associated cause-specific shifts in haemoglobin concentrations, we modelled the proportion of anaemia attributed to 37 underlying causes for all locations, years, and demographics in the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Findings In 2021, the global prevalence of anaemia across all ages was 24·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9–24·7), corresponding to 1·92 billion (1·89–1·95) prevalent cases, compared with a prevalence of 28·2% (27·8–28·5) and 1·50 billion (1·48–1·52) prevalent cases in 1990. Large variations were observed in anaemia burden by age, sex, and geography, with children younger than 5 years, women, and countries in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia being particularly affected. Anaemia caused 52·0 million (35·1–75·1) YLDs in 2021, and the YLD rate due to anaemia declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index. The most common causes of anaemia YLDs in 2021 were dietary iron deficiency (cause-specific anaemia YLD rate per 100 000 population: 422·4 [95% UI 286·1–612·9]), haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias (89·0 [58·2–123·7]), and other neglected tropical diseases (36·3 [24·4–52·8]), collectively accounting for 84·7% (84·1–85·2) of anaemia YLDs. Interpretation Anaemia remains a substantial global health challenge, with persistent disparities according to age, sex, and geography. Estimates of cause-specific anaemia burden can be used to design locally relevant health interventions aimed at improving anaemia management and prevention. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Ovarian Damages Produced by Aerosolized Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Pollution in Mice: Possible Protective Medications and Mechanisms

Background: Ambient aerosol fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with male reproductive toxicity in experiments and may have adverse effects in the female. However, studies evaluating the protective effects and precise mechanisms of aspirin, Vitamin C, Vitamin E, or ozone against toxic effects of PM2.5are sparse. This study was conducted to investigate the possible protective effects and mechanisms of aspirin, Vitamin C, Vitamin E, or ozone on fertility in female mice treated with PM2.5. Methods: Eighty-four ICR mice were divided into six groups: control group, PM2.5group, PM2.5 + aspirin group, PM2.5 + Vitamin C group, PM2.5 + Vitamin E group, and PM2.5 + ozone group. PM2.5was given by intratracheal instillation every 2 days for 3 weeks. Aspirin, Vitamin C, and Vitamin E were given once a day by oral gavage for 3 weeks, and ozone was administered by intraperitoneal injection once a day for 3 weeks. The levels of anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), and 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine (8-OHdG) were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Western blotting analysis was used to analyze the expressions of Bcl-2, Bax, and caspase-3 in ovaries. Changes in histological structure were examined by light microscope and electron microscopy was used to detect ultramicrostructure. Results: The results demonstrated that PM2.5 decreased AMH levels (P < 0.001); however, aspirin (P < 0.001), Vitamin C (P < 0.001), Vitamin E (P = 0.001), and ozone (P = 0.002) alleviated the decrease. Changes of IL-6, TNF-α, 8-OHdG, Bax/Bcl-2, and caspase-3 in PM2.5group were increased compared to control group (P < 0.001), while in PM2.5 + aspirin, PM2.5 + Vitamin C, PM2.5 + Vitamin E, and PM2.5 + ozone groups, they were statistically decreased compared to PM2.5group (P < 0.001 or P< 0.05). Conclusions: PM2.5cause the damage of ovaries, and aspirin, Vitamin C, Vitamin E, and ozone antagonizes the damage. The protective mechanism is probably due to its ability to blunt the inflammatory and oxidative stress caused by PM2.5, which subsequently suppressing the expression of apoptotic regulatory protein and reducing the incidence of ovary apoptosis