Forecasting the response of Earth\u27s surface to future climatic and land use changes: A review of methods and research needs

In the future, Earth will be warmer, precipitation events will be more extreme, global mean sea level will rise, and many arid and semiarid regions will be drier. Human modifications of landscapes will also occur at an accelerated rate as developed areas increase in size and population density. We now have gridded global forecasts, being continually improved, of the climatic and land use changes (C&LUC) that are likely to occur in the coming decades. However, besides a few exceptions, consensus forecasts do not exist for how these C&LUC will likely impact Earth-surface processes and hazards. In some cases, we have the tools to forecast the geomorphic responses to likely future C&LUC. Fully exploiting these models and utilizing these tools will require close collaboration among Earth-surface scientists and Earth-system modelers. This paper assesses the state-of-the-art tools and data that are being used or could be used to forecast changes in the state of Earth\u27s surface as a result of likely future C&LUC. We also propose strategies for filling key knowledge gaps, emphasizing where additional basic research and/or collaboration across disciplines are necessary. The main body of the paper addresses cross-cutting issues, including the importance of nonlinear/threshold-dominated interactions among topography, vegetation, and sediment transport, as well as the importance of alternate stable states and extreme, rare events for understanding and forecasting Earth-surface response to C&LUC. Five supplements delve into different scales or process zones (global-scale assessments and fluvial, aeolian, glacial/periglacial, and coastal process zones) in detail. © 2015 The Authors. Earth\u27s Future published by Wiley on behalf of the American Geophysical Union

Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula

In recent decades, hundreds of glaciers draining the Antarctic Peninsula (63° to 70°S) have undergone systematic and progressive change. These changes are widely attributed to rapid increases in regional surface air temperature, but it is now clear that this cannot be the sole driver. Here, we identify a strong correspondence between mid-depth ocean temperatures and glacier-front changes along the ~1000-kilometer western coastline. In the south, glaciers that terminate in warm Circumpolar Deep Water have undergone considerable retreat, whereas those in the far northwest, which terminate in cooler waters, have not. Furthermore, a mid-ocean warming since the 1990s in the south is coincident with widespread acceleration of glacier retreat. We conclude that changes in ocean-induced melting are the primary cause of retreat for glaciers in this region

Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long-term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean

A multistate model of health transitions in older people: a secondary analysis of ASPREE clinical trial data

Background: Understanding the nature of transitions from a healthy state to chronic diseases and death is important for planning health-care system requirements and interventions. We aimed to quantify the trajectories of disease and disability in a population of healthy older people. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from the ASPREE trial, which was done in 50 sites in Australia and the USA and recruited community-dwelling, healthy individuals who were aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for Black and Hispanic people in the USA) between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014. Participants were followed up with annual face-to-face visits, biennial assessments of cognitive function, and biannual visits for physical function until death or June 12, 2017, whichever occurred first. We used multistate models to examine transitions from a healthy state to first intermediate disease events (ie, cancer events, stroke events, cardiac events, and physical disability or dementia) and, ultimately, to death. We also examined the effects of age and sex on transition rates using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Findings: 19 114 participants with a median age of 74·0 years (IQR 71·6–77·7) were included in our analyses. During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6–5·7), 1933 (10·1%) of 19 114 participants had an incident cancer event, 487 (2·5%) had an incident cardiac event, 398 (2·1%) had an incident stroke event, 924 (4·8%) developed persistent physical disability or dementia, and 1052 (5·5%) died. 15 398 (80·6%) individuals did not have any of these events during follow-up. The highest proportion of deaths followed incident cancer (501 [47·6%] of 1052) and 129 (12·3%) participants transitioned from disability or dementia to death. Among 12 postulated transitions, transitions from the intermediate states to death had much higher rates than transitions from a healthy state to death. The progression rates to death were 158 events per 1000 person-years (95% CI 144–172) from cancer, 112 events per 1000 person-years (86–145) from stroke, 88 events per 1000 person-years (68–111) from cardiac disease, 69 events per 1000 person-years (58–82) from disability or dementia, and four events per 1000 person-years (4–5) from a healthy state. Age was significantly associated with an accelerated rate for most transitions. Male sex (vs female sex) was significantly associated with an accelerate rate for five of 12 transitions. Interpretation: We describe a multistate model in a healthy older population in whom the most common transition was from a healthy state to cancer. Our findings provide unique insights into the frequency of events, their transition rates, and the impact of age and sex. These results have implications for preventive health interventions and planning for appropriate levels of residential care in healthy ageing populations. Funding: The National Institutes of Health

Signatures of the slow solar wind streams from active regions in the inner corona

Some of local sources of the slow solar wind can be associated with spectroscopically detected plasma outflows at edges of active regions accompanied with specific signatures in the inner corona. The EUV telescopes (e.g. SPIRIT/CORONAS-F, TESIS/CORONAS-Photon and SWAP/PROBA2) sometimes observed extended ray-like structures seen at the limb above active regions in 1MK iron emission lines and described as "coronal rays". To verify the relationship between coronal rays and plasma outflows, we analyze an isolated active region (AR) adjacent to small coronal hole (CH) observed by different EUV instruments in the end of July - beginning of August 2009. On August 1 EIS revealed in the AR two compact outflows with the Doppler velocities V =10-30 km/s accompanied with fan loops diverging from their regions. At the limb the ARCH interface region produced coronal rays observed by EUVI/STEREO-A on July 31 as well as by TESIS on August 7. The rays were co-aligned with open magnetic field lines expanded to the streamer stalks. Using the DEM analysis, it was found that the fan loops diverged from the outflow regions had the dominant temperature of ~1 MK, which is similar to that of the outgoing plasma streams. Parameters of the solar wind measured by STEREO-B, ACE, WIND, STEREO-A were conformed with identification of the ARCH as a source region at the Wang-Sheeley-Arge map of derived coronal holes for CR 2086. The results of the study support the suggestion that coronal rays can represent signatures of outflows from ARs propagating in the inner corona along open field lines into the heliosphere.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics; 31 Pages; 13 Figure

Jumping to conclusions, general intelligence, and psychosis liability: Findings from the multi-centre EU-GEI case-control study

BackgroundThe 'jumping to conclusions' (JTC) bias is associated with both psychosis and general cognition but their relationship is unclear. In this study, we set out to clarify the relationship between the JTC bias, IQ, psychosis and polygenic liability to schizophrenia and IQ.MethodsA total of 817 first episode psychosis patients and 1294 population-based controls completed assessments of general intelligence (IQ), and JTC, and provided blood or saliva samples from which we extracted DNA and computed polygenic risk scores for IQ and schizophrenia.ResultsThe estimated proportion of the total effect of case/control differences on JTC mediated by IQ was 79%. Schizophrenia polygenic risk score was non-significantly associated with a higher number of beads drawn (B = 0.47, 95% CI-0.21 to 1.16, p = 0.17); whereas IQ PRS (B = 0.51, 95% CI 0.25-0.76, p < 0.001) significantly predicted the number of beads drawn, and was thus associated with reduced JTC bias. The JTC was more strongly associated with the higher level of psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) in controls, including after controlling for IQ (B =-1.7, 95% CI-2.8 to-0.5, p = 0.006), but did not relate to delusions in patients.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the JTC reasoning bias in psychosis might not be a specific cognitive deficit but rather a manifestation or consequence, of general cognitive impairment. Whereas, in the general population, the JTC bias is related to PLEs, independent of IQ. The work has the potential to inform interventions targeting cognitive biases in early psychosis

Social disadvantage, linguistic distance, ethnic minority status and first-episode psychosis: Results from the EU-GEI case-control study

BackgroundEthnic minority groups in Western countries face an increased risk of psychotic disorders. Causes of this long-standing public health inequality remain poorly understood. We investigated whether social disadvantage, linguistic distance and discrimination contributed to these patterns.MethodsWe used case-control data from the EUropean network of national schizophrenia networks studying Gene-Environment Interactions (EU-GEI) study, carried out in 16 centres in six countries. We recruited 1130 cases and 1497 population-based controls. Our main outcome measure was first-episode ICD-10 psychotic disorder (F20-F33), and exposures were ethnicity (white majority, black, mixed, Asian, North-African, white minority and other), generational status, social disadvantage, linguistic distance and discrimination. Age, sex, paternal age, cannabis use, childhood trauma and parental history of psychosis were included as a priori confounders. Exposures and confounders were added sequentially to multivariable logistic models, following multiple imputation for missing data.ResultsParticipants from any ethnic minority background had crude excess odds of psychosis [odds ratio (OR) 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.69-2.43], which remained after adjustment for confounders (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.31-1.98). This was progressively attenuated following further adjustment for social disadvantage (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.22-1.89) and linguistic distance (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.95-1.57), a pattern mirrored in several specific ethnic groups. Linguistic distance and social disadvantage had stronger effects for first- A nd later-generation groups, respectively.ConclusionSocial disadvantage and linguistic distance, two potential markers of sociocultural exclusion, were associated with increased odds of psychotic disorder, and adjusting for these led to equivocal risk between several ethnic minority groups and the white majority

Roadmap on Li-ion battery manufacturing research

Growth in the Li-ion battery market continues to accelerate, driven primarily by the increasing need for economic energy storage for electric vehicles. Electrode manufacture by slurry casting is the first main step in cell production but much of the manufacturing optimisation is based on trial and error, know-how and individual expertise. Advancing manufacturing science that underpins Li-ion battery electrode production is critical to adding to the electrode manufacturing value chain. Overcoming the current barriers in electrode manufacturing requires advances in materials, manufacturing technology, in-line process metrology and data analytics, and can enable improvements in cell performance, quality, safety and process sustainability. In this roadmap we explore the research opportunities to improve each stage of the electrode manufacturing process, from materials synthesis through to electrode calendering. We highlight the role of new process technology, such as dry processing, and advanced electrode design supported through electrode level, physics-based modelling. Progress in data driven models of electrode manufacturing processes is also considered. We conclude there is a growing need for innovations in process metrology to aid fundamental understanding and to enable feedback control, an opportunity for electrode design to reduce trial and error, and an urgent imperative to improve the sustainability of manufacture

Radiative Cooling in MHD Models of the Quiet Sun Convection Zone and Corona

We present a series of numerical simulations of the quiet Sun plasma threaded by magnetic fields that extend from the upper convection zone into the low corona. We discuss an efficient, simplified approximation to the physics of optically thick radiative transport through the surface layers, and investigate the effects of convective turbulence on the magnetic structure of the Sun's atmosphere in an initially unipolar (open field) region. We find that the net Poynting flux below the surface is on average directed toward the interior, while in the photosphere and chromosphere the net flow of electromagnetic energy is outward into the solar corona. Overturning convective motions between these layers driven by rapid radiative cooling appears to be the source of energy for the oppositely directed fluxes of electromagnetic energy.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures, Solar Physics, in pres