Pacific island regional preparedness for El Niño

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle is often blamed for disasters in Pacific island communities. From a disaster risk reduction (DRR) perspective, the challenges with the El Niño part of the ENSO cycle, in particular, are more related to inadequate vulnerability reduction within development than to ENSO-induced hazard influences. This paper analyses this situation, filling in a conceptual and geographic gap in El Niño-related research, by reviewing El Niño-related preparedness (the conceptual gap) for Pacific islands (the geographic gap). Through exploring El Niño impacts on Pacific island communities alongside their vulnerabilities, resiliences, and preparedness with respect to El Niño, El Niño is seen as a constructed discourse rather than as a damaging phenomenon, leading to suggestions for El Niño preparedness as DRR as part of development. Yet the attention which El Niño garners might bring resources to the Pacific region and its development needs, albeit in the short term while El Niño lasts. Conversely, the attention given to El Niño could shift blame from underlying causes of vulnerability to a hazard-centric viewpoint. Instead of focusing on one hazard-influencing phenomenon, opportunities should be created for the Pacific region to tackle wider DRR and development concerns

Comparison of the influence of cyclosporine and tacrolimus on the pharmacokinetics of prednisolone in adult male kidney transplant recipients

Cyclosporine has been observed to precipitate cushingoid features in kidney transplant recipients already on prednisolone. Some pharmacokinetic studies have demonstrated increased prednisolone exposure in patients on cyclosporine therapy compared with azathioprine, whereas other studies have found no difference. The objective of this study was to determine whether cyclosporine impacts on prednisolone exposure as compared with tacrolimus

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Population‐based cohort study of outcomes following cholecystectomy for benign gallbladder diseases

Background The aim was to describe the management of benign gallbladder disease and identify characteristics associated with all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications in a prospective population‐based cohort. Methods Data were collected on consecutive patients undergoing cholecystectomy in acute UK and Irish hospitals between 1 March and 1 May 2014. Potential explanatory variables influencing all‐cause 30‐day readmissions and complications were analysed by means of multilevel, multivariable logistic regression modelling using a two‐level hierarchical structure with patients (level 1) nested within hospitals (level 2). Results Data were collected on 8909 patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 167 hospitals. Some 1451 cholecystectomies (16·3 per cent) were performed as an emergency, 4165 (46·8 per cent) as elective operations, and 3293 patients (37·0 per cent) had had at least one previous emergency admission, but had surgery on a delayed basis. The readmission and complication rates at 30 days were 7·1 per cent (633 of 8909) and 10·8 per cent (962 of 8909) respectively. Both readmissions and complications were independently associated with increasing ASA fitness grade, duration of surgery, and increasing numbers of emergency admissions with gallbladder disease before cholecystectomy. No identifiable hospital characteristics were linked to readmissions and complications. Conclusion Readmissions and complications following cholecystectomy are common and associated with patient and disease characteristics

Laparoscopy in management of appendicitis in high-, middle-, and low-income countries: a multicenter, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Appendicitis is the most common abdominal surgical emergency worldwide. Differences between high- and low-income settings in the availability of laparoscopic appendectomy, alternative management choices, and outcomes are poorly described. The aim was to identify variation in surgical management and outcomes of appendicitis within low-, middle-, and high-Human Development Index (HDI) countries worldwide. METHODS: This is a multicenter, international prospective cohort study. Consecutive sampling of patients undergoing emergency appendectomy over 6 months was conducted. Follow-up lasted 30 days. RESULTS: 4546 patients from 52 countries underwent appendectomy (2499 high-, 1540 middle-, and 507 low-HDI groups). Surgical site infection (SSI) rates were higher in low-HDI (OR 2.57, 95% CI 1.33-4.99, p = 0.005) but not middle-HDI countries (OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.76-2.52, p = 0.291), compared with high-HDI countries after adjustment. A laparoscopic approach was common in high-HDI countries (1693/2499, 67.7%), but infrequent in low-HDI (41/507, 8.1%) and middle-HDI (132/1540, 8.6%) groups. After accounting for case-mix, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.42-0.71, p < 0.001) and SSIs (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.14-0.33, p < 0.001). In propensity-score matched groups within low-/middle-HDI countries, laparoscopy was still associated with fewer overall complications (OR 0.23 95% CI 0.11-0.44) and SSI (OR 0.21 95% CI 0.09-0.45). CONCLUSION: A laparoscopic approach is associated with better outcomes and availability appears to differ by country HDI. Despite the profound clinical, operational, and financial barriers to its widespread introduction, laparoscopy could significantly improve outcomes for patients in low-resource environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02179112

Meta-analysis of randomised adjuvant therapy trials for pancreatic cancer

The aim of this study was to investigate the worldwide evidence of the roles of adjuvant chemoradiation and adjuvant chemotherapy on survival in potentially curative resected pancreatic cancer. Five randomised controlled trials of adjuvant treatment in patients with histologically proven pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma were identified, of which the four most recent trials provided individual patient data (875 patients). This meta-analysis includes previously unpublished follow-up data on 261 patients. The pooled estimate of the hazard ratio (HR) indicated a 25% significant reduction in the risk of death with chemotherapy (HR=0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64, 0.90, P-valuesstratified (Pstrat)=0.001) with median survival estimated at 19.0 (95% CI: 16.4, 21.1) months with chemotherapy and 13.5 (95% CI: 12.2, 15.8) without. The 2- and 5-year survival rates were estimated at 38 and 19%, respectively, with chemotherapy and 28 and 12% without. The pooled estimate of the HR indicated no significant difference in the risk of death with chemoradiation (HR=1.09, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.32, Pstrat=0.43) with median survivals estimated at 15.8 (95% CI: 13.9, 18.1) months with chemoradiation and 15.2 (95% CI: 13.1, 18.2) without. The 2- and 5-year survival rates were estimated at 30 and 12%, respectively, with chemoradiation and 34 and 17% without. Subgroup analyses estimated that chemoradiation was more effective and chemotherapy less effective in patients with positive resection margins. These results show that chemotherapy is effective adjuvant treatment in pancreatic cancer but not chemoradiation. Further studies with chemoradiation are warranted in patients with positive resection margins, as chemotherapy appeared relatively ineffective in this patient subgroup

The Cost of Male Aggression and Polygyny in California Sea Lions (Zalophus californianus)

In polygynous mating systems, males often increase their fecundity via aggressive defense of mates and/or resources necessary for successful mating. Here we show that both male and female reproductive behavior during the breeding season (June–August) affect female fecundity, a vital rate that is an important determinant of population growth rate and viability. By using 4 years of data on behavior and demography of California sea lions (Zalophus californianus), we found that male behavior and spatial dynamics—aggression and territory size—are significantly related to female fecundity. Higher rates of male aggression and larger territory sizes were associated with lower estimates of female fecundity within the same year. Female aggression was significantly and positively related to fecundity both within the same year as the behavior was measured and in the following year. These results indicate that while male aggression and defense of territories may increase male fecundity, such interactions may cause a reduction in the overall population growth rate by lowering female fecundity. Females may attempt to offset male-related reductions in female fecundity by increasing their own aggression—perhaps to defend pups from incidental injury or mortality. Thus in polygynous mating systems, male aggression may increase male fitness at the cost of female fitness and overall population viability

Validation of the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule (WHODAS 2.0) 12-item tool against the 36-item version for measuring functioning and disability associated with pregnancy and history of severe maternal morbidity

© 2018 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Objective: To validate the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) 12-item tool against the 36-item version for measuring functioning and disability associated with pregnancy and the occurrence of maternal morbidity. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of the Brazilian retrospective cohort study on long-term repercussions of severe maternal morbidity (SMM) among women who delivered at a tertiary facility (COMMAG study). We compared WHODAS-12 and WHODAS-36 scores of women with and without SMM using measures of central tendency and variability, tests for instruments’ agreement (Bland-Altman plot), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and Cronbach alpha coefficient for internal consistency. Results: The COMMAG study enrolled 638 women up to 5 years postpartum. Although the median WHODAS-36 and -12 scores for all women were statistically different (13.04 and 11.76, respectively; P<0.001), there was a strong linear correlation between them. Furthermore, the mean difference and the differences in variance analyses demonstrated agreement of total scores between the two versions. CFA demonstrated how the WHODAS-12 questions are divided into six previously defined factors and Cronbach alpha showed good internal consistency. Conclusion: WHODAS-12 demonstrated agreement with WHODAS-36 for total score and was a good instrument for screening functioning and disability among postpartum women, with and without SMM

Stochastically Gating Ion Channels Enable Patterned Spike Firing through Activity-Dependent Modulation of Spike Probability

The transformation of synaptic input into patterns of spike output is a fundamental operation that is determined by the particular complement of ion channels that a neuron expresses. Although it is well established that individual ion channel proteins make stochastic transitions between conducting and non-conducting states, most models of synaptic integration are deterministic, and relatively little is known about the functional consequences of interactions between stochastically gating ion channels. Here, we show that a model of stellate neurons from layer II of the medial entorhinal cortex implemented with either stochastic or deterministically gating ion channels can reproduce the resting membrane properties of stellate neurons, but only the stochastic version of the model can fully account for perithreshold membrane potential fluctuations and clustered patterns of spike output that are recorded from stellate neurons during depolarized states. We demonstrate that the stochastic model implements an example of a general mechanism for patterning of neuronal output through activity-dependent changes in the probability of spike firing. Unlike deterministic mechanisms that generate spike patterns through slow changes in the state of model parameters, this general stochastic mechanism does not require retention of information beyond the duration of a single spike and its associated afterhyperpolarization. Instead, clustered patterns of spikes emerge in the stochastic model of stellate neurons as a result of a transient increase in firing probability driven by activation of HCN channels during recovery from the spike afterhyperpolarization. Using this model, we infer conditions in which stochastic ion channel gating may influence firing patterns in vivo and predict consequences of modifications of HCN channel function for in vivo firing patterns

The impact of hypertension, hemorrhage, and other maternal morbidities on functioning in the postpartum period as assessed by the WHODAS 2.0 36-item tool

© 2018 World Health Organization; licensed by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Objective: To assess the scores of postpartum women using the WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 36-item tool (WHODAS-36), considering different morbidities. Methods: Secondary analysis of a retrospective cohort of women who delivered at a referral maternity in Brazil and were classified with and without severe maternal morbidity (SMM). WHODAS-36 was used to assess functioning in postpartum women. Percentile distribution of total WHODAS score was compared across three groups: Percentile (P)90. Cases of SMM were categorized and WHODAS-36 score was assessed according to hypertension, hemorrhage, or other conditions. Results: A total of 638 women were enrolled: 64 had mean scores below P90 (41.3). Of women scoring above P>90, those with morbidity had a higher mean score than those without (44.6% vs 36.8%, P=0.879). Women with higher WHODAS-36 scores presented more complications during pregnancy, especially hypertension (47.0% vs 37.5%, P=0.09). Mean scores among women with any complication were higher than those with no morbidity (19.0 vs 14.2, P=0.01). WHODAS-36 scores were higher among women with hypertensive complications (19.9 vs 16.0, P=0.004), but lower among those with hemorrhagic complications (13.8 vs 17.7, P=0.09). Conclusions: Complications during pregnancy, childbirth, and the puerperium increase long-term WHODAS-36 scores, demonstrating a persistent impact on functioning among women, up to 5 years postpartum