The revision of the German Fertilization Ordinance in 2017 : Analyzing economic and environmental impacts at farm-level

The Fertilization Ordinance (FO), implementing the EU Nitrates Directive in Germany, is the core regulation to limit the loss of reactive nitrogen and phosphorus from agriculture. It was revised in June 2017 after environmental targets have been missed. The revised FO contains considerable tighter measures such as stricter nutrient application thresholds and the mandatory use of low-emission manure application techniques. The aim of this thesis is to assess the economic and environmental impact of the revision at farm-level, focusing on Northwest Germany. To do so, a bio-economic farm model is applied to the pig fattening and dairy farm population of North Rhine-Westphalia and, in combination with a crop modelling framework, to dominant farm types selected from a generated typology. The model covers the measures of the FO as well as prominent compliance strategies. Manure transport as a central adaption strategy to meet stricter nutrient application thresholds is additionally evaluated in a life cycle assessment. On-farm compliance costs are highly heterogeneous and range from 0 to 2.66 Euro per pig for pig fattening farms and from 0 to 0.83 cent per kg milk for dairy farms. 47% of pig fattening and 38% of dairy farms do not face any costs. High compliance costs are found for pig fattening farms with high stocking densities, which need to fulfill the stricter phosphate surplus restrictions of the FO 2017. In contrast, dairy farms almost solely face costs for the compulsory use of low-emission manure application techniques. Intensive pig fattening farm types with a high stocking density reduce nitrate and ammonia losses considerably, which is mainly due to the export of excess manure, the shift of manure application from autumn to spring, and the use of low-emission manure application techniques. Less intensive pig fattening farm types, representing a high share of the pig stock, realize only little emission reduction. Arable farm types, starting to import manure under the FO 2017, can save variable costs by replacing chemical fertilizer. As a consequence, nitrate and ammonia losses increase, which illustrates the danger of regional pollution swapping due to manure imports. However, manure transport from livestock to arable farms can realize a net-reduction of all assessed environmental impacts. The heterogeneous impact of the FO 2017 makes it necessary to precisely target enforcement mechanisms as well as supporting measures at the affected farms. Furthermore, policymakers need to protect sensitive areas from the negative effect of manure imports.Die Düngeverordnung (DüV) implementiert die EU-Nitratrichtlinie in Deutschland und ist die zentrale Regulierung, um den Verlust von reaktivem Stickstoff und Phosphor aus der Landwirtschaft zu verringern. Sie wurde im Juni 2017 novelliert, nachdem verschiedene Umweltziele nicht erreicht wurden. Die überarbeitete DüV beinhaltet deutlich strengere Maßnahmen, wie zum Beispiel eine stärker limitierte Nährstoffausbringung oder die verpflichtende Nutzung von emissionsarmer Technik zur Wirtschaftsdüngerausbringung. Diese Dissertation untersucht die ökonomischen und ökologischen Effekte der Novelle in Nordwestdeutschland. Dazu wird ein bio-ökonomisches Betriebsmodell sowohl auf die gesamte Population von Schweinemast- und Milchviehbetrieben in Nordrhein-Westfalen als auch, in Kombination mit einem Pflanzenwachstumsmodell, auf typische Betriebe angewandt. Der Export von Wirtschaftsdünger, als wichtige Anpassung an strengere Vorgaben an die Nährstoffausbringung, wird darüber hinaus in einer Lebenszyklusanalyse untersucht. Die betrieblichen Anpassungskosten sind stark heterogen und reichen von 0 bis 2,66 Euro pro Schwein für Schweinemastbetriebe und von 0 bis 0,83 Cent pro kg Milch für Milchviehbetriebe. 47% der Schweinemast- und 38% der Milchviehbetriebe haben keinerlei Anpassungskosten. Schweinemastbetriebe mit hohem Tierbesatz sind hohen Kosten ausgesetzt, um den geringeren zulässigen Phosphatüberschuss unter der DüV 2017 einzuhalten. Für Milchviehbetriebe hingegen entstehen vor allem Kosten durch die verpflichtende Nutzung von emissionsarmer Ausbringungstechnik. Typische intensive Schweinemastbetriebe mit hohem Tierbesatz reduzieren ihre Nitrat- und Ammoniakverluste deutlich, insbesondere durch den Export von Wirtschaftsdünger, die Verschiebung der Wirtschaftsdüngerausbringung in das Frühjahr und die Nutzung von emissionsarmer Ausbringungstechnik. Extensivere Schweinemastbetriebe, die einen hohen Anteil des Schweinebestandes abbilden, verringern ihre Emissionen nur geringfügig. Typische Ackerbaubetriebe, die unter der DüV 2017 Wirtschaftsdünger importieren, sparen Kosten durch die Reduktion des Mineraldüngereinsatzes. Sie zeigen allerdings höhere Nitrat- und Ammoniakverluste, was die Gefahr von räumlichen Verlagerungseffekten aufgrund von Wirtschaftsdüngertransporten verdeutlicht. Der Transport kann jedoch eine Netto-Reduktion von allen untersuchten Umweltwirkungen realisieren. Der heterogene Effekt der DüV 2017 verdeutlicht die Notwendigkeit einer zielgerichteten Ausgestaltung von Vollzugsmechanismen und unterstützenden Maßnahmen für betroffene Betriebe. Darüber hinaus sollten Entscheidungsträger sensible Gebiete vor den negativen Auswirkungen von Wirtschaftsdüngerimporten schützen

Modell zur Quantifizierung des Energieverbrauchs und der Treibhausgasemissionen von Biobetrieben

Zusammenfassung Während der Jahre 2009-2011 wurden am FiBL über verschiedene Projekte Grundlagen zur betrieblichen und produktbezogenen Energie- und Klimabilanzierung erarbeitet. Daraus wurde ein Modellansatz entwickelt, mit dem der Energieverbrauch und die Treibhausgasemissionen (THG-Emissionen) auf Betriebsebene abgeschätzt werden können. Aus diesen Vorarbeiten ist 2011 und 2012 das FiBL-Betriebsmodell entstanden, mit dem es möglich ist: 1. detaillierte Klimabilanzen von Schweizer Biobetrieben durchzuführen, 2. zwischenbetriebliche Vergleiche anzustellen und 3. die Auswirkungen von betrieblichen Veränderungen oder Anpassungsstrategien auf die THG-Emissionen zu berechnen. Die grosse Stärke des Betriebsmodells ist seine hohe Flexibilität in Bezug auf die Datenerfordernisse. So werden zur Analyse und Optimierung des Energieverbrauchs und der THG-Emissionen auf Schweizer Biobetrieben – wo vorhanden – betriebsindividuelle Daten berücksichtigt. Fehlen diese, werden Standarddaten verwendet. Im Modell werden alle erforderlichen Betriebsmittel und Prozesse zur Bewirtschaftung eines Betriebes, bzw. zur Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln berücksichtigt. Hauptbestandteile des Betriebsmodells sind das sogenannte Pflanzenbau- und das Tierproduktionsmodell, welche untereinander über innerbetrieblicher Stoff- und Energieflüsse (organische Dünger, Futtermittel, Stroh) verknüpft sind. Bei einer betrieblichen Bilanz werden die Emissionen der einzelnen Module aufsummiert und bezogen auf die funktionellen Einheiten Fläche*Jahr-1 und Produktion (Masse, Kalorien, Protein, Wertschöpfung) ausgedrückt. Der Energieverbrauch und die THG-Emissionen lassen sich für alle einzelnen Verfahren aus dem Tier- und Pflanzenbaumodell (z.B. Weizenproduktion, Milchproduktion) bilanzieren. Durch seine Flexibilität was Datenerfordernisse, Systemgrenzen und funktionelle Einheiten betrifft, ist das Betriebsmodell sowohl für wissenschaftliche Analysen als auch Betriebsberatungen geeignet. Ein grosser Vorteil des Modells ist die Möglichkeit, verschiedene Klimaschutz und Energieeinsparmassnahmen zu modellieren und so betriebsspezifisch die Auswirkungen der Massnahmen zu untersuchen. Derzeit sind 11 Massnahmen implementiert (z.B. reduzierte Bodenbearbeitung oder Weideanteil vergrössern bzw. standortangepasste Umstellung auf Vollweide), weitere Massnahmen können problemlos integriert werden. Weiterhin ist geplant, das Modell auf andere Nachhaltigkeitskategorien (Luft- und Gewässerbelastung, Humusaufbau, Biodiversität, Ökonomie und Soziales) zu erweitern. Bisher wurde das Betriebsmodell nur auf Bio-Milchvieh und Bio-Gemischtbetrieben angewendet. Für die Abbildung weiterer Betriebstypen (z.B. Obst- und Gemüsebau) sind teilweise Anpassungen am Modell erforderlich. Ziel dieses Papieres ist es, die Funktionsweise und Annahme des Modells transparent zu machen und zur Diskussion zu stellen. Dabei gehen wir zunächst auf das grundlegende Konzept ein und stellen danach die unterschiedlichen Module vor. Für Fragen, Anregungen und konstruktive Kritik sind wir dankbar, da dies für uns ein Mittel ist das Modell stetig weiterzuentwickeln und zu verbessern

Automated quantification of stroke damage on brain computed tomography scans: e-ASPECTS

Emergency radiological diagnosis of acute ischaemic stroke requires the accurate detection and appropriate interpretation of relevant imaging findings. Non-contrast computed tomography (CT) provides fast and low-cost assessment of the early signs of ischaemia and is the most widely used diagnostic modality for acute stroke. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) is a quantitative and clinically validated method to measure the extent of ischaemic signs on brain CT scans. The CE-marked electronic-ASPECTS (e-ASPECTS) software automates the ASPECTS score. Anglia Ruskin Clinical Trials Unit (ARCTU) independently carried out a clinical investigation of the e-ASPECTS software, an automated scoring system which can be integrated into the diagnostic pathway of an acute ischaemic stroke patient, thereby assisting the physician with expert interpretation of the brain CT scan. Here we describe a literature review of the clinical importance of reliable assessment of early ischaemic signs on plain CT scans, and of technologies automating these processed scoring systems in ischaemic stroke on CT scans focusing on the e-ASPECTS software. To be suitable for critical appraisal in this evaluation, the published studies needed a sample size of a minimum of 10 cases. All randomised studies were screened and data deemed relevant to demonstration of performance of ASPECTS were appraised. The literature review focused on three domains: i) interpretation of brain CT scans of stroke patients, ii) the application of the ASPECTS score in ischaemic stroke, and iii) automation of brain CT analysis. Finally, the appraised references are discussed in the context of the clinical impact of e-ASPECTS and the expected performance, which will be independently evaluated by a non-inferiority study conducted by the ARCTU

COVID-19 and climate: global evidence from 117 countries

Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regressconfirmed COVID-19 cases 5per million inhabitants in a country against the country’s distance from the equator, controlling key confounding factors: air travel, distance to Wuhan, testing intensity, cell phone usage, vehicle concentration, urbanization, and income. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 2.6% increase in cases per million inhabitants (p value <0.001). The Northern hemisphere may see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and aresurgence during winter. One Sentence Summary: An increase in absolute latitude by onedegree is associated with a 2.6% increase in COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants after controlling for several important factors

More is the Same; Phase Transitions and Mean Field Theories

This paper looks at the early theory of phase transitions. It considers a group of related concepts derived from condensed matter and statistical physics. The key technical ideas here go under the names of "singularity", "order parameter", "mean field theory", and "variational method". In a less technical vein, the question here is how can matter, ordinary matter, support a diversity of forms. We see this diversity each time we observe ice in contact with liquid water or see water vapor, "steam", come up from a pot of heated water. Different phases can be qualitatively different in that walking on ice is well within human capacity, but walking on liquid water is proverbially forbidden to ordinary humans. These differences have been apparent to humankind for millennia, but only brought within the domain of scientific understanding since the 1880s. A phase transition is a change from one behavior to another. A first order phase transition involves a discontinuous jump in a some statistical variable of the system. The discontinuous property is called the order parameter. Each phase transitions has its own order parameter that range over a tremendous variety of physical properties. These properties include the density of a liquid gas transition, the magnetization in a ferromagnet, the size of a connected cluster in a percolation transition, and a condensate wave function in a superfluid or superconductor. A continuous transition occurs when that jump approaches zero. This note is about statistical mechanics and the development of mean field theory as a basis for a partial understanding of this phenomenon.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure

Design research, architectural research, architectural design research: an argument on disciplinarity and identity

This paper studies the relationship between design and architectural research and questions whether these can be viewed as separate disciplines. Presented is an historical review of how this relationship has changed over 40-years. Several interventions, including research assessment, provide a motive to identify architecture as a discipline, however locating a unique ‘architectural’ element continues to be problematic. This argument advances this debate noting that recent changes, understanding design as movement for societal change and the involvement of non-academics (researcher/practitioners) in practice-based research, open up new epistemic vantage points. In particular it is at the intersection of architectural design research (ADR) and detailed design studies of architects at work that new ways of constructing architectural and designerly knowledge emerge

Lead-DBS v2: Towards a comprehensive pipeline for deep brain stimulation imaging.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) is a highly efficacious treatment option for movement disorders and a growing number of other indications are investigated in clinical trials. To ensure optimal treatment outcome, exact electrode placement is required. Moreover, to analyze the relationship between electrode location and clinical results, a precise reconstruction of electrode placement is required, posing specific challenges to the field of neuroimaging. Since 2014 the open source toolbox Lead-DBS is available, which aims at facilitating this process. The tool has since become a popular platform for DBS imaging. With support of a broad community of researchers worldwide, methods have been continuously updated and complemented by new tools for tasks such as multispectral nonlinear registration, structural/functional connectivity analyses, brain shift correction, reconstruction of microelectrode recordings and orientation detection of segmented DBS leads. The rapid development and emergence of these methods in DBS data analysis require us to revisit and revise the pipelines introduced in the original methods publication. Here we demonstrate the updated DBS and connectome pipelines of Lead-DBS using a single patient example with state-of-the-art high-field imaging as well as a retrospective cohort of patients scanned in a typical clinical setting at 1.5T. Imaging data of the 3T example patient is co-registered using five algorithms and nonlinearly warped into template space using ten approaches for comparative purposes. After reconstruction of DBS electrodes (which is possible using three methods and a specific refinement tool), the volume of tissue activated is calculated for two DBS settings using four distinct models and various parameters. Finally, four whole-brain tractography algorithms are applied to the patient's preoperative diffusion MRI data and structural as well as functional connectivity between the stimulation volume and other brain areas are estimated using a total of eight approaches and datasets. In addition, we demonstrate impact of selected preprocessing strategies on the retrospective sample of 51 PD patients. We compare the amount of variance in clinical improvement that can be explained by the computer model depending on the method of choice. This work represents a multi-institutional collaborative effort to develop a comprehensive, open source pipeline for DBS imaging and connectomics, which has already empowered several studies, and may facilitate a variety of future studies in the field

microRNA-Mediated Messenger RNA Deadenylation Contributes to Translational Repression in Mammalian Cells

Animal microRNAs (miRNAs) typically regulate gene expression by binding to partially complementary target sites in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of messenger RNA (mRNA) reducing its translation and stability. They also commonly induce shortening of the mRNA 3′ poly(A) tail, which contributes to their mRNA decay promoting function. The relationship between miRNA-mediated deadenylation and translational repression has been less clear. Using transfection of reporter constructs carrying three imperfectly matching let-7 target sites in the 3′ UTR into mammalian cells we observe rapid target mRNA deadenylation that precedes measureable translational repression by endogenous let-7 miRNA. Depleting cells of the argonaute co-factors RCK or TNRC6A can impair let-7-mediated repression despite ongoing mRNA deadenylation, indicating that deadenylation alone is not sufficient to effect full repression. Nevertheless, the magnitude of translational repression by let-7 is diminished when the target reporter lacks a poly(A) tail. Employing an antisense strategy to block deadenylation of target mRNA with poly(A) tail also partially impairs translational repression. On the one hand, these experiments confirm that tail removal by deadenylation is not strictly required for translational repression. On the other hand they show directly that deadenylation can augment miRNA-mediated translational repression in mammalian cells beyond stimulating mRNA decay. Taken together with published work, these results suggest a dual role of deadenylation in miRNA function: it contributes to translational repression as well as mRNA decay and is thus critically involved in establishing the quantitatively appropriate physiological response to miRNAs

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy (3rd edition)

In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. For example, a key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process versus those that measure fl ux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process including the amount and rate of cargo sequestered and degraded). In particular, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation must be differentiated from stimuli that increase autophagic activity, defi ned as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (inmost higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium ) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the fi eld understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. It is worth emphasizing here that lysosomal digestion is a stage of autophagy and evaluating its competence is a crucial part of the evaluation of autophagic flux, or complete autophagy. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. Along these lines, because of the potential for pleiotropic effects due to blocking autophagy through genetic manipulation it is imperative to delete or knock down more than one autophagy-related gene. In addition, some individual Atg proteins, or groups of proteins, are involved in other cellular pathways so not all Atg proteins can be used as a specific marker for an autophagic process. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field