Observed long-term land cover vs climate impacts on the West African hydrological cycle: lessons for the future ? [P-3330-65]

West Africa has experienced a long lasting, severe drought as from 1970, which seems to be attenuating since 2000. It has induced major changes in living conditions and resources over the region. In the same period, marked changes of land use and land cover have been observed: land clearing for agriculture, driven by high demographic growth rates, and ecosystem evolutions driven by the rainfall deficit. Depending on the region, the combined effects of these climate and environmental changes have induced contrasted impacts on the hydrological cycle. In the Sahel, runoff and river discharges have increased despite the rainfall reduction (“less rain, more water”, the so-called "Sahelian paradox "). Soil crusting and erosion have increased the runoff capacity of the watersheds so that it outperformed the rainfall deficit. Conversely, in the more humid Guinean and Sudanian regions to the South, the opposite (and expected) “less rain, less water” behavior is observed, but the signature of land cover changes can hardly be detected in the hydrological records. These observations over the past 50 years suggest that the hydrological response to climate change can not be analyzed irrespective of other concurrent changes, and primarily ecosystem dynamics and land cover changes. There is no consensus on future rainfall trend over West Africa in IPCC projections, although a higher occurrence of extreme events (rainstorms, dry spells) is expected. An increase in the need for arable land and water resources is expected as well, driven by economic development and demographic growth. Based on past long-term observations on the AMMA-CATCH observatory, we explore in this work various future combinations of climate vs environmental drivers, and we infer the expected resulting trends on water resources, along the west African eco-climatic gradient. (Texte intégral

ALGOS: the development of a randomized controlled trial testing a case management algorithm designed to reduce suicide risk among suicide attempters

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suicide attempts (SA) constitute a serious clinical problem. People who attempt suicide are at high risk of further repetition. However, no interventions have been shown to be effective in reducing repetition in this group of patients.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Multicentre randomized controlled trial.</p> <p>We examine the effectiveness of «ALGOS algorithm»: an intervention based in a decisional tree of contact type which aims at reducing the incidence of repeated suicide attempt during 6 months. This algorithm of case management comprises the two strategies of intervention that showed a significant reduction in the number of SA repeaters: systematic telephone contact (ineffective in first-attempters) and «Crisis card» (effective only in first-attempters). Participants who are lost from contact and those refusing healthcare, can then benefit from «short letters» or «postcards».</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>ALGOS algorithm is easily reproducible and inexpensive intervention that will supply the guidelines for assessment and management of a population sometimes in difficulties with healthcare compliance. Furthermore, it will target some of these subgroups of patients by providing specific interventions for optimizing the benefits of case management strategy.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>The study was registered with the ClinicalTrials.gov Registry; number: NCT01123174.</p

What eddy-covariance measurements tell us about prior land flux errors in CO2-flux inversion schemes

0.2 after 200 km). Separating out the plant functional types did not increase the spatial correlations, except for the deciduous broad-leaved forests. Using the statistics of the flux measurements as a proxy for the statistics of the prior flux errors was shown not to be a viable approach. A statistical model allowed us to upscale the site-level flux error statistics to the coarser spatial and temporal resolutions used in regional or global models. This approach allowed us to quantify how aggregation reduces error variances, while increasing correlations. As an example, for a typical inversion of grid point (300 km × 300 km) monthly fluxes, we found that the prior flux error follows an approximate e-folding correlation length of 500 km only, with correlations from one month to the next as large as 0.6

ECOSTRESS: NASA's next generation mission to measure evapotranspiration from the International Space Station

The ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station ECOSTRESS) was launched to the International Space Station on June 29, 2018. The primary science focus of ECOSTRESS is centered on evapotranspiration (ET), which is produced as level‐3 (L3) latent heat flux (LE) data products. These data are generated from the level‐2 land surface temperature and emissivity product (L2_LSTE), in conjunction with ancillary surface and atmospheric data. Here, we provide the first validation (Stage 1, preliminary) of the global ECOSTRESS clear‐sky ET product (L3_ET_PT‐JPL, version 6.0) against LE measurements at 82 eddy covariance sites around the world. Overall, the ECOSTRESS ET product performs well against the site measurements (clear‐sky instantaneous/time of overpass: r2 = 0.88; overall bias = 8%; normalized RMSE = 6%). ET uncertainty was generally consistent across climate zones, biome types, and times of day (ECOSTRESS samples the diurnal cycle), though temperate sites are over‐represented. The 70 m high spatial resolution of ECOSTRESS improved correlations by 85%, and RMSE by 62%, relative to 1 km pixels. This paper serves as a reference for the ECOSTRESS L3 ET accuracy and Stage 1 validation status for subsequent science that follows using these data

Agroforesterie et services écosystémiques en zone tropicale

Respectueux de l’environnement et garantissant une sécurité alimentaire soutenue par la diversification des productions et des revenus qu’ils procurent, les systèmes agroforestiers apparaissent comme un modèle prometteur d’agriculture durable dans les pays du Sud les plus vulnérables aux changements globaux. Cependant, ces systèmes agroforestiers ne peuvent être optimisés qu’à condition de mieux comprendre et de mieux maîtriser les facteurs de leurs productions. L’ouvrage présente un ensemble de connaissances récentes sur les mécanismes biophysiques et socio-économiques qui sous-tendent le fonctionnement et la dynamique des systèmes agroforestiers. Il concerne, d’une part les systèmes agroforestiers à base de cultures pérennes, telles que cacaoyers et caféiers, de régions tropicales humides en Amérique du Sud, en Afrique de l’Est et du Centre, d’autre part les parcs arborés et arbustifs à base de cultures vivrières, principalement de céréales, de la région semi-aride subsaharienne d’Afrique de l’Ouest. Il synthétise les dernières avancées acquises grâce à plusieurs projets associant le Cirad, l’IRD et leurs partenaires du Sud qui ont été conduits entre 2012 et 2016 dans ces régions. L’ensemble de ces projets s’articulent autour des dynamiques des systèmes agroforestiers et des compromis entre les services de production et les autres services socio-écosystémiques que ces systèmes fournissent