Technical Note: Real-time updating procedure for flood forecasting with conceptual HBV-type models

International audienceFlood forecasting is of increasing importance as it comes to an increasing variability in global and local climates. But rainfall-runoff models are far from being perfect. In order to achieve a better prediction for emerging flood events, the model outputs have to be continuously updated. This contribution introduces a rather simple, yet effective updating procedure for the conceptual distributed rainfall-runoff model PREVAH, whose runoff generation module relies on similar algorithms as the HBV-Model. The current conditions of the system, i.e. the contents of the upper soil reservoirs, are updated by the proposed method. The testing of the updating procedure on data from two mountainous catchments in Switzerland reveals a significant increase in prediction accuracy with regards to peak flow

Technical Note: Updating procedure for flood forecasting with conceptual HBV-type models

International audienceFlood forecasting is of increasing importance as it comes to an increasing variability in global and local climates. But rainfall-runoff models are far from being perfect. In order to achieve a better prediction for emerging flood events, the model outputs have to be continuously updated. This contribution introduces a rather simple, yet effective updating procedure for the conceptual semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PREVAH, whose runoff generation module relies on similar algorithms as the HBV-Model. The current conditions of the system, i.e. the contents of the upper soil reservoirs, are updated by the proposed method. The testing of the updating procedure on data from two mountainous catchments in Switzerland reveals a significant increase in prediction accuracy with regards to peak flow

Multiobjective inverse parameter estimation for modelling vadose zone water movement

Inverse modelling techniques for estimating unsaturated soil hydraulic parameters have become increasingly common in the past two decades. In contrast to single-objective parameter estimation which yields a single set of "best fit" parameters, multiobjective parameter estimation results in a number of Pareto optimal solutions which allow the analysis of the trade-off between different, sometimes conflicting, model objectives. In this study, modelling tools for identification of Pareto optimal sets of vadose zone water transport parameters are presented utilizing the numerical water and solute transport model HYDRUS-1D. Root-mean-square error (RMSE) values are calculated to measure the fit of the simulated and observed pressure head data at three different depths at a vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand

Protocol TOP-Study (tacrolimus organ perfusion): a prospective randomized multicenter trial to reduce ischemia reperfusion injury in transplantation of marginal liver grafts with an "ex vivo" tacrolimus perfusion

Background: Critical organ shortage results in the utilization of extended donor criteria (EDC) liver grafts. These marginal liver grafts are prone to increased ischemia reperfusion injury (IRI) which may contribute to deteriorated graft function and survival. Experimental data have shown that the calcineurin inhibitor tacrolimus exerts protective effects on hepatic IRI when applied intravenously or directly as a hepatic rinse. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the effects of an ex vivo tacrolimus perfusion on IRI in transplantation of EDC liver grafts. Methods/Design: The TOP-Study (tacrolimus organ perfusion) is a randomized multicenter trial comparing the ex vivo tacrolimus perfusion of marginal liver grafts with placebo. We hypothesize that a tacrolimus rinse reduces IRI, potentially improving organ survival following transplantation of EDC livers. The study includes livers with two or more EDC, according to Eurotransplant International Foundation’s definition of EDC livers. Prior to implantation, livers randomized to the treatment group are rinsed with tacrolimus at a concentration of 20 ng/ml in 1000 ml Custodiol solution and in the placebo group with Custodiol alone. The primary endpoint is the maximum serum alanine transamninase (ALT) level within the first 48 hours after surgery; however, the study design also includes a 1-year observation period following transplantation. The TOP-Study is an investigator-initiated trial sponsored by the University of Munich Hospital. Seven other German transplant centers are participating (Berlin, Frankfurt, Heidelberg, Mainz, Münster, Regensburg, Tübingen) and aim to include a total of 86 patients. Discussion: Tacrolimus organ perfusion represents a promising strategy to reduce hepatic IRI following the transplantation of marginal liver grafts. This treatment may help to improve the function of EDC grafts and therefore safely expand the donor pool in light of critical organ shortage. Trial register: EudraCT number: 2010-021333-31, ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT0156409

Automated equilibrium tension lysimeters for measuring water fluxes through a layered, volcanic vadose profile in New Zealand

In this technical note we present the design, installation, and evaluation of a field monitoring system to directly measure water fluxes through a vadose zone. The system is based on use of relatively new measurement technology-automated equilibrium tension lysimeters (AETLs). An AETL uses a porous sintered stainless-steel plate to provide a comparatively large sampling area (0.20 m(2)) with a continuously controlled vacuum applied under the plate. This vacuum is in "equilibrium" with the surrounding vadose zone tension to ensure measured fluxes represent those under undisturbed conditions. Fifteen of these AETLs have been installed at five depths through a layered volcanic vadose zone to study the impact of land use changes on water quality in Lake Taupo, New Zealand. We describe the development and testing of the AETLs, the methods used for installing these devices, a condensed data set of the measured physical properties of the vadose zone, and the initial results from the in situ operation of the AETLs, including the preliminary results from a bromide tracer test. For an AETL installed at the 0.4-m depth, where soil pressure heads are most dynamic, the average deviation between the target reference pressure head, as measured in the undisturbed vadose zone and the pressure head measured above the sampling plate was only 5.4 hPa over a 180-d period. The bromide recovered in an AETL at the same depth was equivalent to 96% of the bromide pulse applied onto the surface area directly above the AETL. We conclude that this measurement technique provides an accurate and robust method of measuring vadose zone fluxes. These measurements can ultimately contribute to better understanding of the water transport and contaminant transformation processes through vadose zones

Deriving transmission losses in ephemeral rivers using satellite imagery and machine learning

Transmission losses are the loss in the flow volume of a river as water moves downstream. These losses provide crucial ecosystem services, particularly in ephemeral and intermittent river systems. Transmission losses can be quantified at many scales using different measurement techniques. One of the most common methods is differential gauging of river flow at two locations. An alternative method for non-perennial rivers is to replace the downstream gauging location by visual assessments of the wetted river length on satellite images. The transmission losses are then calculated as the flow gauged at the upstream location divided by the wetted river length. We used this approach to estimate the transmission losses in the Selwyn River (Canterbury, New Zealand) using 147 satellite images collected between March 2020 and May 2021. The location of the river drying front was verified in the field on six occasions and seven differential gauging campaigns were conducted to ground-truth the losses estimated from the satellite images. The transmission loss point data obtained using the wetted river lengths and differential gauging campaigns were used to train an ensemble of random forest models to predict the continuous hourly time series of transmission losses and their uncertainties. Our results show that the Selwyn River transmission losses ranged between 0.25 and 0.65 m³ s‾¹ km‾¹ during most of the 1-year study period. However, shortly after a flood peak the losses could reach up to 1.5 m³ s‾¹ km‾¹. These results enabled us to improve our understanding of the Selwyn River groundwater-surface water interactions and provide valuable data to support water management. We argue that our framework can easily be adapted to other ephemeral rivers and to longer time series

Sorption and transformation of the reactive tracers resazurin and resorufin in natural river sediments

Resazurin (Raz) and its reaction product resorufin (Rru) have increasingly been used as reactive tracers to quantify metabolic activity and hyporheic exchange in streams. Previous work has indicated that these compounds undergo sorption in stream sediments. We present laboratory experiments on Raz and Rru transport, sorption, and transformation, consisting of 4 column and 72 batch tests using 2 sediments with different physicochemical properties under neutral (pH=7) and alkaline (pH=9) conditions. The study aimed at identifying the key processes of reactive transport of Raz and Rru in streambed sediments and the experimental setup best suited for their determination. Data from column experiments were simulated by a travel-time-based model accounting for physical transport, equilibrium and kinetic sorption, and three first-order reactions. We derived the travel-time distributions directly from the breakthrough curve (BTC) of the conservative tracer, fluorescein, rather than from fitting an advective-dispersive transport model, and inferred from those distributions the transfer functions of Raz and Rru, which provided conclusive approximations of the measured BTCs. The most likely reactive transport parameters and their uncertainty were determined by a Markov chain–Monte Carlo approach. Sorption isotherms of both compounds were obtained from batch experiments. We found that kinetic sorption dominates sorption of both Raz and Rru, with characteristic timescales of sorption in the order of 12 to 298 min. Linear sorption models for both Raz and Rru appeared adequate for concentrations that are typically applied in field tracer tests. The proposed two-site sorption model helps to interpret transient tracer tests using the Raz–Rru system.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. The published article can be found at: http://www.hydrology-and-earth-system-sciences.net/home.html

KliWES 2.0 – Klimawandel und Wasserhaushalt: Methodikoptimierung der Wasserhaushaltsmodellierung, Fortschreibung von Modelleingangsdaten, sachsenweite Wasserhaushaltsmodellierung für Ist-Zustand und Szenarien sowie Weiterentwicklung der KliWES-Internetanwendung im Wasserhaushaltsportal Sachsen

Die Schriftenreihe informiert über die Fortschreibung des Projektes „Klimawandel und Wasserhaushalt in Sachsen“ (KlIWES-2.0) mit einem weiterentwickelten ARCEGMO- Modell- Konzept. Zunächst erfolgte eine Neuberechnung des IST- Wasserhaushaltes bis 2015. Ergänzend wurden mit acht ausgewählten WEREX-VI- Klima- Realisierungen künftige Wasserhaushalts- Entwicklungen (bis 2100) modelliert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen überwiegend ein weiter abnehmende Abfluss- Dargebots- Entwicklung in den Gewässereinzugsgebieten. Über das neue Anwendungs- Tool „KliWES-2.0“ sind die Ergebnisse im „Wasserhaushaltsportal Sachsen“ für einen breiten Nutzerkreis auch webbasiert verfügbar. Redaktionsschluss: 10.06.202

Modeling causes of death: an integrated approach using CODEm

Background: Data on causes of death by age and sex are a critical input into health decision-making. Priority setting in public health should be informed not only by the current magnitude of health problems but by trends in them. However, cause of death data are often not available or are subject to substantial problems of comparability. We propose five general principles for cause of death model development, validation, and reporting.Methods: We detail a specific implementation of these principles that is embodied in an analytical tool - the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) - which explores a large variety of possible models to estimate trends in causes of death. Possible models are identified using a covariate selection algorithm that yields many plausible combinations of covariates, which are then run through four model classes. The model classes include mixed effects linear models and spatial-temporal Gaussian Process Regression models for cause fractions and death rates. All models for each cause of death are then assessed using out-of-sample predictive validity and combined into an ensemble with optimal out-of-sample predictive performance.Results: Ensemble models for cause of death estimation outperform any single component model in tests of root mean square error, frequency of predicting correct temporal trends, and achieving 95% coverage of the prediction interval. We present detailed results for CODEm applied to maternal mortality and summary results for several other causes of death, including cardiovascular disease and several cancers.Conclusions: CODEm produces better estimates of cause of death trends than previous methods and is less susceptible to bias in model specification. We demonstrate the utility of CODEm for the estimation of several major causes of death