Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Search for Tensor, Vector, and Scalar Polarizations in the Stochastic Gravitational-Wave Background

The detection of gravitational waves with Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo has enabled novel tests of general relativity, including direct study of the polarization of gravitational waves. While general relativity allows for only two tensor gravitational-wave polarizations, general metric theories can additionally predict two vector and two scalar polarizations. The polarization of gravitational waves is encoded in the spectral shape of the stochastic gravitational-wave background, formed by the superposition of cosmological and individually unresolved astrophysical sources. Using data recorded by Advanced LIGO during its first observing run, we search for a stochastic background of generically polarized gravitational waves. We find no evidence for a background of any polarization, and place the first direct bounds on the contributions of vector and scalar polarizations to the stochastic background. Under log-uniform priors for the energy in each polarization, we limit the energy densities of tensor, vector, and scalar modes at 95% credibility to Ω0T<5.58×10-8, Ω0V<6.35×10-8, and Ω0S<1.08×10-7 at a reference frequency f0=25 Hz. © 2018 American Physical Society

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

On the progenitor of binary neutron star merger GW170817

On 2017 August 17 the merger of two compact objects with masses consistent with two neutron stars was discovered through gravitational-wave (GW170817), gamma-ray (GRB 170817A), and optical (SSS17a/AT 2017gfo) observations. The optical source was associated with the early-type galaxy NGC 4993 at a distance of just ∼40 Mpc, consistent with the gravitational-wave measurement, and the merger was localized to be at a projected distance of ∼2 kpc away from the galaxy's center. We use this minimal set of facts and the mass posteriors of the two neutron stars to derive the first constraints on the progenitor of GW170817 at the time of the second supernova (SN). We generate simulated progenitor populations and follow the three-dimensional kinematic evolution from binary neutron star (BNS) birth to the merger time, accounting for pre-SN galactic motion, for considerably different input distributions of the progenitor mass, pre-SN semimajor axis, and SN-kick velocity. Though not considerably tight, we find these constraints to be comparable to those for Galactic BNS progenitors. The derived constraints are very strongly influenced by the requirement of keeping the binary bound after the second SN and having the merger occur relatively close to the center of the galaxy. These constraints are insensitive to the galaxy's star formation history, provided the stellar populations are older than 1 Gyr

Does smooth muscle in an intact airway undergo length adaptation during a sustained change in transmural pressure?

In isolated airway smooth muscle (ASM) strips, an increase or decrease in ASM length away from its current optimum length causes an immediate reduction in force production followed by a gradual time-dependent recovery in force, a phenomenon termed length adaptation. In situ, length adaptation may be initiated by a change in transmural pressure (Ptm), which is a primary physiological determinant of ASM length. The present study sought to determine the effect of sustained changes in Ptm and therefore, ASM perimeter, on airway function. We measured contractile responses in whole porcine bronchial segments in vitro before and after a sustained inflation from a baseline Ptm of 5 cmH2O to 25 cmH2O, or deflation to −5 cmH2O, for ∼50 min in each case. In one group of airways, lumen narrowing and stiffening in response to electrical field stimulation (EFS) were assessed from volume and pressure signals using a servo-controlled syringe pump with pressure feedback. In a second group of airways, lumen narrowing and the perimeter of the ASM in situ were determined by anatomical optical coherence tomography. In a third group of airways, active tension was determined under isovolumic conditions. Both inflation and deflation reduced the contractile response to EFS. Sustained Ptm change resulted in a further decrease in contractile response, which returned to baseline levels upon return to the baseline Ptm. These findings reaffirm the importance of Ptm in regulating airway narrowing. However, they do not support a role for ASM length adaptation in situ under physiological levels of ASM lengthening and shortening

Distribution of airway narrowing responses across generations and at branching points, assessed in vitro by anatomical optical coherence tomography

Background: Previous histological and imaging studies have shown the presence of variability in the degree of bronchoconstriction of airways sampled at different locations in the lung (i.e., heterogeneity). Heterogeneity can occur at different airway generations and at branching points in the bronchial tree. Whilst heterogeneity has been detected by previous experimental approaches, its spatial relationship either within or between airways is unknown.Methods: In this study, distribution of airway narrowing responses across a portion of the porcine bronchial tree was determined in vitro. The portion comprised contiguous airways spanning bronchial generations (#3-11), including the associated side branches. We used a recent optical imaging technique, anatomical optical coherence tomography, to image the bronchial tree in three dimensions. Bronchoconstriction was produced by carbachol administered to either the adventitial or luminal surface of the airway. Luminal cross sectional area was measured before and at different time points after constriction to carbachol and airway narrowing calculated from the percent decrease in luminal cross sectional area.Results: When administered to the adventitial surface, the degree of airway narrowing was progressively increased from proximal to distal generations (r = 0.80 to 0.98, P < 0.05 to 0.001). This 'serial heterogeneity' was also apparent when carbachol was administered via the lumen, though it was less pronounced. In contrast, airway narrowing was not different at side branches, and was uniform both in the parent and daughter airways.Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate that the bronchial tree expresses intrinsic serial heterogeneity, such that narrowing increases from proximal to distal airways, a relationship that is influenced by the route of drug administration but not by structural variations accompanying branching sites

Airway narrowing assessed by anatomical optical coherence tomography in vitro: Dynamic airway wall morphology and function

Regulation of airway caliber by lung volume or bronchoconstrictor stimulation is dependent on physiological, structural, and mechanical events within the airway wall, including airway smooth muscle (ASM) contraction, deformation of the mucosa and cartilage, and tensioning of elastic matrices linking wall components. Despite close association between events in the airway wall and the resulting airway caliber, these have typically been studied separately: the former primarily using histological approaches, the latter with a range of imaging modalities. We describe a new optical technique, anatomical optical coherence tomography (aOCT), which allows changes at the luminal surface (airway caliber) to be temporally related to corresponding dynamic movements within the airway wall. A fiber-optic aOCT probe was inserted into the lumen of isolated, liquid-filled porcine airways. It was used to image the response to ASM contraction induced by neural stimulation and to airway inflation and deflation. Comparisons with histology indicated that aOCT provided highresolution images of the airway lumen including mucosal folds, the entire inner wall (mucosa and ASM), and partially the cartilaginous outer wall. Airway responses assessed by aOCT revealed several phenomena in "live" airways (i.e., not fixed) previously identified by histological investigations of fixed tissue, including a geometric relationship between ASM shortening and luminal narrowing, and sliding and bending of cartilage plates. It also provided direct evidence for distensibility of the epithelial membrane and anisotropic behavior of the airway wall. Findings suggest that aOCT can be used to relate changes in airway caliber to dynamic events in the wall of airways