Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Large sulfur isotope fractionations in Martian sediments at Gale crater

Variability in the sulfur isotopic composition in sediments can reflect atmospheric, geologic and biological processes. Evidence for ancient fluvio-lacustrine environments at Gale crater on Mars and a lack of efficient crustal recycling mechanisms on the planet suggests a surface environment that was once warm enough to allow the presence of liquid water, at least for discrete periods of time, and implies a greenhouse effect that may have been influenced by sulfur-bearing volcanic gases. Here we report in situ analyses of the sulfur isotopic compositions of SO2 volatilized from ten sediment samples acquired by NASA’s Curiosity rover along a 13 km traverse of Gale crater. We find large variations in sulfur isotopic composition that exceed those measured for Martian meteorites and show both depletion and enrichment in 34S. Measured values of δ34S range from −47 ± 14‰ to 28 ± 7‰, similar to the range typical of terrestrial environments. Although limited geochronological constraints on the stratigraphy traversed by Curiosity are available, we propose that the observed sulfur isotopic signatures at Gale crater can be explained by equilibrium fractionation between sulfate and sulfide in an impact-driven hydrothermal system and atmospheric processing of sulfur-bearing gases during transient warm periods

Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives to promote adherence to depot antipsychotic medication: economic evaluation of a cluster-randomised controlled trial

Background: Offering a modest financial incentive to people with psychosis can promote adherence to depot antipsychotic medication, but the cost-effectiveness of this approach has not been examined. Methods: Economic evaluation within a pragmatic cluster-randomised controlled trial. 141 patients under the care of 73 teams (clusters) were randomised to intervention or control; 138 patients with diagnoses of schizophrenia, schizo-affective disorder or bipolar disorder participated. Intervention participants received £15 per depot injection over 12 months, additional to usual acute, mental and community primary health services. The control group received usual health services. Main outcome measures: incremental cost per 20% increase in adherence to depot antipsychotic medication; incremental cost of ‘good’ adherence (defined as taking at least 95% of the prescribed number of depot medications over the intervention period). Findings: Economic and outcome data for baseline and 12-month follow-up were available for 117 participants. The adjusted difference in adherence between groups was 12.2% (73.4% control vs. 85.6% intervention); the adjusted costs difference was £598 (95% CI -£4 533, £5 730). The extra cost per patient to increase adherence to depot medications by 20% was £982 (95% CI -£8 020, £14 000). The extra cost per patient of achieving 'good' adherence was £2 950 (CI -£19 400, £27 800). Probability of cost-effectiveness exceeded 97.5%at willingness-to-pay values of £14 000 for a 20% increase in adherence and £27 800 for good adherence. Interpretation: Offering a modest financial incentive to people with psychosis is cost-effective in promoting adherence to depot antipsychotic medication. Direct healthcare costs (including costs of the financial incentive) are unlikely to be increased by this intervention. Trial Registration: ISRCTN.com 7776928

Genetic parameters for growth, wood density and pulp yield in Eucalyptus globulus

Genetic variation and co-variation among the key pulpwood selection traits for Eucalyptus globulus were estimated for a range of sites in Portugal, with the aim of improving genetic parameters used to predict breeding values and correlated response to selection. The trials comprised clonally replicated full-sib families (eight trials) and unrelated clones (17 trials), and exhibited varying levels of pedigree connectivity. The traits studied were stem diameter at breast height, Pilodyn penetration (an indirect measure of wood basic density) and near infrared reflectance predicted pulp yield. Univariate and multivariate linear mixed models were fitted within and across sites, and estimates of additive genetic, total genetic, environmental and phenotypic variances and covariances were obtained. All traits studied exhibited significant levels of additive genetic variation. The average estimated within-site narrowsense heritability was 0.19±0.03 for diameter and 0.29± 0.03 for Pilodyn penetration, and the pooled estimate for predicted pulp yield was 0.42±0.14. When they could be tested, dominance and epistatic effects were generally not statistically significant, although broad-sense heritability estimates were slightly higher than narrow-sense heritability estimates. Averaged across trials, positive additive (0.64±0.08), total genetic (0.58±0.04), environmental (0.38±0.03) and phenotypic (0.43±0.02) correlation estimates were consistently obtained between diameter and Pilodyn penetration. This data argues for at least some form of pleiotropic relationship between these two traits and that selection for fast growth will adversely affect wood density in this population. Estimates of the across-site genetic correlations for diameter and Pilodyn penetration were high, indicating that the genotype by environment interaction is low across the range of sites tested. This result supports the use of single aggregated selection criteria for growth and wood density across planting environments in Portugal, as opposed to having to select for performance in different environment

The transcriptional landscape of endogenous retroelements delineates esophageal adenocarcinoma subtypes

Most cancer types exhibit aberrant transcriptional activity, including derepression of retrotransposable elements (RTEs). However, the degree, specificity and potential consequences of RTE transcriptional activation may differ substantially among cancer types and subtypes. Representing one extreme of the spectrum, we characterize the transcriptional activity of RTEs in cohorts of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and its precursor Barrett's esophagus (BE) from the OCCAMS (Oesophageal Cancer Clinical and Molecular Stratification) consortium, and from TCGA (The Cancer Genome Atlas). We found exceptionally high RTE inclusion in the EAC transcriptome, driven primarily by transcription of genes incorporating intronic or adjacent RTEs, rather than by autonomous RTE transcription. Nevertheless, numerous chimeric transcripts straddling RTEs and genes, and transcripts from stand-alone RTEs, particularly KLF5- and SOX9-controlled HERVH proviruses, were overexpressed specifically in EAC. Notably, incomplete mRNA splicing and EAC-characteristic intronic RTE inclusion was mirrored by relative loss of the respective fully-spliced, functional mRNA isoforms, consistent with compromised cellular fitness. Defective RNA splicing was linked with strong transcriptional activation of a HERVH provirus on Chr Xp22.32 and defined EAC subtypes with distinct molecular features and prognosis. Our study defines distinguishable RTE transcriptional profiles of EAC, reflecting distinct underlying processes and prognosis, thus providing a framework for targeted studies

Production of dust by massive stars at high redshift

The large amounts of dust detected in sub-millimeter galaxies and quasars at high redshift pose a challenge to galaxy formation models and theories of cosmic dust formation. At z > 6 only stars of relatively high mass (> 3 Msun) are sufficiently short-lived to be potential stellar sources of dust. This review is devoted to identifying and quantifying the most important stellar channels of rapid dust formation. We ascertain the dust production efficiency of stars in the mass range 3-40 Msun using both observed and theoretical dust yields of evolved massive stars and supernovae (SNe) and provide analytical expressions for the dust production efficiencies in various scenarios. We also address the strong sensitivity of the total dust productivity to the initial mass function. From simple considerations, we find that, in the early Universe, high-mass (> 3 Msun) asymptotic giant branch stars can only be dominant dust producers if SNe generate <~ 3 x 10^-3 Msun of dust whereas SNe prevail if they are more efficient. We address the challenges in inferring dust masses and star-formation rates from observations of high-redshift galaxies. We conclude that significant SN dust production at high redshift is likely required to reproduce current dust mass estimates, possibly coupled with rapid dust grain growth in the interstellar medium.Comment: 72 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables; to be published in The Astronomy and Astrophysics Revie

Time domains of the hypoxic ventilatory response in ectothermic vertebrates

Over a decade has passed since Powell et al. (Respir Physiol 112:123–134, 1998) described and defined the time domains of the hypoxic ventilatory response (HVR) in adult mammals. These time domains, however, have yet to receive much attention in other vertebrate groups. The initial, acute HVR of fish, amphibians and reptiles serves to minimize the imbalance between oxygen supply and demand. If the hypoxia is sustained, a suite of secondary adjustments occur giving rise to a more long-term balance (acclimatization) that allows the behaviors of normal life. These secondary responses can change over time as a function of the nature of the stimulus (the pattern and intensity of the hypoxic exposure). To add to the complexity of this process, hypoxia can also lead to metabolic suppression (the hypoxic metabolic response) and the magnitude of this is also time dependent. Unlike the original review of Powell et al. (Respir Physiol 112:123–134, 1998) that only considered the HVR in adult animals, we also consider relevant developmental time points where information is available. Finally, in amphibians and reptiles with incompletely divided hearts the magnitude of the ventilatory response will be modulated by hypoxia-induced changes in intra-cardiac shunting that also improve the match between O2 supply and demand, and these too change in a time-dependent fashion. While the current literature on this topic is reviewed here, it is noted that this area has received little attention. We attempt to redefine time domains in a more ‘holistic’ fashion that better accommodates research on ectotherms. If we are to distinguish between the genetic, developmental and environmental influences underlying the various ventilatory responses to hypoxia, however, we must design future experiments with time domains in mind

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI &lt;18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school&#x2;aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI &lt;2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI &gt;2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit