Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes.

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive). In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a fundamental step in future modelling of weather-driven epidemics.FMN gratefully acknowledges financial support from BBSRC, USDA-ARS, USDA-Aphis PPQ, Citrus Research and Development Foundation. CAG gratefully acknowledges the support of a BBSRC Professorial Fellowship, with additional support from USDA and Defra. ARC was supported by BBSRC, USDA, the National University of Singapore, and NMRC. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Even Between-Lap Pacing Despite High Within-Lap Variation During Mountain Biking

Purpose: Given the paucity of research on pacing strategies during competitive events, this study examined changes in dynamic high-resolution performance parameters to analyze pacing profiles during a multiple-lap mountain-bike race over variable terrain. Methods: A global-positioning-system (GPS) unit (Garmin, Edge 305, USA) recorded velocity (m/s), distance (m), elevation (m), and heart rate at 1 Hz from 6 mountain-bike riders (mean ± SD age = 27.2 ± 5.0 y, stature = 176.8 ± 8.1 cm, mass = 76.3 ± 11.7 kg, VO2max = 55.1 ± 6.0 mL · kg–1 . min–1) competing in a multilap race. Lap-by-lap (interlap) pacing was analyzed using a 1-way ANOVA for mean time and mean velocity. Velocity data were averaged every 100 m and plotted against race distance and elevation to observe the presence of intralap variation. Results: There was no significant difference in lap times (P = .99) or lap velocity (P = .65) across the 5 laps. Within each lap, a high degree of oscillation in velocity was observed, which broadly reflected changes in terrain, but high-resolution data demonstrated additional nonmonotonic variation not related to terrain. Conclusion: Participants adopted an even pace strategy across the 5 laps despite rapid adjustments in velocity during each lap. While topographical and technical variations of the course accounted for some of the variability in velocity, the additional rapid adjustments in velocity may be associated with dynamic regulation of self-paced exercise

Metabolomic studies of lipid storage disorders, with special reference to Niemann-Pick type C disease: a critical review with future perspectives

Lysosomal storage disorders (LSDs) are predominantly very rare recessive autosomal neurodegenerative diseases.Sphingolipidoses, a sub-group of LSDs, result from defects in lysosomal enzymes involved in sphingolipid catabolism, and feature disrupted storage systems which trigger complex pathogenic cascades with other organelles collaterally affected. This process leads to cell dysfunction and death, particularly in the central nervous system. One valuable approach to gaining insights into the global impact of lysosomal dysfunction is through metabolomics, which represents a discovery tool for investigating disease-induced modifications in the patterns of large numbers of simultaneously-analysed metabolites, which also features the identification of biomarkers Here, the scope and applications of metabolomics strategies to the investigation of sphingolipidoses is explored in order to facilitate our understanding of the biomolecular basis of these conditions. This review therefore surveys the benefits of applying ’state-of-the-art’ metabolomics strategies, both univariate and multivariate, to sphingolipidoses, particularly Niemann-Pick type C disease. Relevant limitations of these techniques are also discussed, along with the latest advances and developments. We conclude that metabolomics strategies are highly valuable, distinctive bioanalytical techniques for probing LSDs, most especially for the detection and validation of potential biomarkers. They also show much promise for monitoring disease progression and the evaluation of therapeutic strategies and targets

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV

Evaluating rehabilitation following lumbar fusion surgery (REFS): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: The rate of lumbar fusion surgery (LFS) is increasing. Clinical recovery often lags technical outcome. Approximately 40% of patients undergoing LFS rate themselves as symptomatically unchanged or worse following surgery. There is little research describing rehabilitation following LFS with no clear consensus as to what constitutes the optimum strategy. It is important to develop appropriate rehabilitation strategies to help patients manage pain and recover lost function following LFS. METHODS/DESIGN: The study design is a randomised controlled feasibility trial exploring the feasibility of providing a complex multi-method rehabilitation intervention 3 months following LFS. The rehabilitation protocol that we have developed involves small participant groups of therapist led structured education utilising principles of cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), progressive, individualised exercise and peer support. Participants will be randomly allocated to either usual care (UC) or the rehabilitation group (RG). We will recruit 50 subjects, planning to undergo LFS, over 30 months. Following LFS all participants will experience normal care for the first 3 months. Subsequent to a satisfactory 3 month surgical review they will commence their allocated post-operative treatment (RG or UC). Data collection will occur at baseline (pre-operatively), 3, 6 and 12 months post-operatively. Primary outcomes will include an assessment of feasibility factors (including recruitment and compliance). Secondary outcomes will evaluate the acceptability and characteristics of a limited cluster of quantitative measures including the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and an aggregated assessment of physical function (walking 50 yards, ascend/descend a flight of stairs). A nested qualitative study will evaluate participants' experiences. DISCUSSION: This study will evaluate the feasibility of providing complex, structured rehabilitation in small groups 3 months following technically successful LFS. We will identify strengths and weakness of the proposed protocol and the usefulness and characteristics of the planned outcome measures. This will help shape the development of rehabilitation strategies and inform future work aimed at evaluating clinical efficacy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN60891364, 10/07/2014

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Fortified breakfast cereal consumed daily for 12 wk leads to a significant improvement in micronutrient intake and micronutrient status in adolescent girls: a randomised controlled trial

Background: Poor micronutrient status is reported among adolescents across Europe and USA. This may be related to the well-documented decline in the regular consumption of breakfast by this group. The regular consumption of a breakfast cereal offers a possible means to improve micronutrient status; fortified cereal is likely to have enhanced benefit. A study was conducted to determine the efficacy of the regular consumption of a fortified cereal with milk, compared with unfortified cereal, consumed either as a breakfast or a supper, in improving micronutrient intake and micronutrient status of adolescent girls. Methods: A randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled intervention trial was conducted in girls recruited at ages 16–19 years, from schools and colleges in Sheffield, UK. Girls were randomised to receive 50 g fortified or unfortified cereal, with 150 ml semi-skimmed milk, daily, for 12 weeks, as a breakfast or as a supper. Dietary intake was estimated using a 4-d food diary and blood collected for the assessment of nutritional status. Within-group changes were tested using a paired sample t test; two-way ANOVA was used to analyse effects of the intervention, with cereal type and time of consumption as factors, correcting for baseline values. The analysis was conducted on 71 girls who completed the study. Results: Consumption of unfortified cereal elicited an increase in the intake of vitamins B1, B2 and B6; consumption of fortified cereal elicited increases in vitamins B1, B2, B6, B12, folate and iron (P < 0.001) and of vitamin D (P = 0.007), all increases were significantly greater than for unfortified cereal. Consumption of the fortified cereal also led to a significant improvement in biomarkers of status for vitamins B2, B12, folate and of iron, compared with girls receiving the unfortified cereal, and maintained vitamin D status, in contrast with the girls receiving the unfortified cereal (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The daily consumption of cereal with milk for 12 weeks by adolescent girls, increased intakes of micronutrients. The consumption of fortified cereal elicited greater increases than for unfortified cereal and improved biomarkers of micronutrient status. The findings justify strategies to encourage the consumption of fortified cereal with milk by adolescents, either as a breakfast or a supper