Ab initio calculation of the neutron-proton mass difference

The existence and stability of atoms rely on the fact that neutrons are more massive than protons. The measured mass difference is only 0.14\% of the average of the two masses. A slightly smaller or larger value would have led to a dramatically different universe. Here, we show that this difference results from the competition between electromagnetic and mass isospin breaking effects. We performed lattice quantum-chromodynamics and quantum-electrodynamics computations with four nondegenerate Wilson fermion flavors and computed the neutron-proton mass-splitting with an accuracy of $300$ kilo-electron volts, which is greater than $0$ by $5$ standard deviations. We also determine the splittings in the $\Sigma$, $\Xi$, $D$ and $\Xi_{cc}$ isospin multiplets, exceeding in some cases the precision of experimental measurements.Comment: 57 pages, 15 figures, 6 tables, revised versio

Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) – a community perspective

This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through on-line media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focussed on process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4 (62.3 (55.1�70.8) million) to 6.4 (58.3 (47.6�70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization�s Global Nutrition Target of <5 in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2 (30 (22.8�38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0 (55.5 (44.8�67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic. © 2020, The Author(s)

Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s)

Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s)

An independent method for determining the age of the universe

The oldest white dwarf stars in the solar neighborhood are still observable, and their luminosity distribution can be used to determine directly the age of the Galactic disk and, somewhat less directly, the age of the universe. The observed number of white dwarfs in a given volume of space increases monotonically with decreasing luminosity, as expected from cooling rate considerations (hotter objects cool more quickly). However, their number drops abruptly at a luminosity of log (L/ L0 ) ""' -4.5, due to the finite age of our Galaxy. Comparing this sudden drop in the observed luminosity distribution with the best theoretical evolutionary white dwarf models available to us, and allowing for a mean pre-white-dwarf lifetime of 0.3 Gyr, we derive an age for the Galactic disk of 9.3 ± 2.0 Gyr. To obtain the age of the universe, we must add the time between the big bang and the first appearance of stars in the Galactic disk. Rather than assume a particular cosmological model, we prefer to choose a value (and stated error) that can include ali of the currently reasonable models describing this early era. On this basis we estimate the age of the universe to be 10.3 ± 2.2 Gyr. This new technique provides a way of determining tlie age of tlie Galactic disk that is largely independent of ali previous methods. Further, its current uncertainties can be materially reduced by direct measurements of the rate at which variable white dwarf stars cool tlirough the three known instability strips in the H-R diagram

An independent method for determining the age of the universe

The oldest white dwarf stars in the solar neighborhood are still observable, and their luminosity distribution can be used to determine directly the age of the Galactic disk and, somewhat less directly, the age of the universe. The observed number of white dwarfs in a given volume of space increases monotonically with decreasing luminosity, as expected from cooling rate considerations (hotter objects cool more quickly). However, their number drops abruptly at a luminosity of log (L/ L0 ) ""' -4.5, due to the finite age of our Galaxy. Comparing this sudden drop in the observed luminosity distribution with the best theoretical evolutionary white dwarf models available to us, and allowing for a mean pre-white-dwarf lifetime of 0.3 Gyr, we derive an age for the Galactic disk of 9.3 ± 2.0 Gyr. To obtain the age of the universe, we must add the time between the big bang and the first appearance of stars in the Galactic disk. Rather than assume a particular cosmological model, we prefer to choose a value (and stated error) that can include ali of the currently reasonable models describing this early era. On this basis we estimate the age of the universe to be 10.3 ± 2.2 Gyr. This new technique provides a way of determining tlie age of tlie Galactic disk that is largely independent of ali previous methods. Further, its current uncertainties can be materially reduced by direct measurements of the rate at which variable white dwarf stars cool tlirough the three known instability strips in the H-R diagram