Spatial heterogeneity of habitat suitability for Rift Valley fever occurrence in Tanzania: an ecological niche modelling approach

Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with these characteristics

Combining modeling tools to identify conservation priority areas: A case study of the last large-bodied avian frugivore in the Atlantic Forest

Applicability of modeling tools to tackle conservation problems is key for conservation planning. However, modeling papers regarding real-world conservation issues are scarce. Here, we combined two modeling tools to identify priority areas in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, focusing on the last large-bodied frugivorous bird in the region, the red-billed curassow (Crax blumenbachii). We used population viability analysis (PVA) to determine (1) the minimum viable population size under different hunting scenarios; and (2) the minimum critical forest patch size required to maintain viable populations. We used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to identify remnants that retain suitable environmental conditions to ensure the long-term persistence of this species. We overlapped the outputs from PVA and ENM models to identify priority areas for curassows. Under our best-case scenario, 56 individuals would suffice to maintain a viable population and 71 forest patches located within the species' known range are above the critical size of 3141 ha. In the worst-case scenario, at least 138 individuals would be required to maintain a viable population in forest patches larger than 9500 ha, corresponding to only 20 Atlantic Forest fragments within the species range. Among these, 17 presented median habitat suitability values higher than 0.70, eight of which were selected as priority areas for law enforcement and nine as priority areas for reintroduction. We encourage conservation biologists and land managers to combine modeling tools which can be guided by our conservation planning framework. This approach is promising to inform long-term conservation planning of a flagship species and its entire ecosystem

Q Fever Outbreak in Industrial Setting

An outbreak of Q fever was likely caused by renovation work that aerosolized contaminated straw board

Cost-effectiveness of a screening strategy for Q fever among pregnant women in risk areas: a clustered randomized controlled trial

Contains fulltext : 87399.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: In The Netherlands the largest human Q fever outbreak ever reported in the literature is currently ongoing with more than 2300 notified cases in 2009. Pregnant women are particularly at risk as Q fever during pregnancy may cause maternal and obstetric complications. Since the majority of infected pregnant women are asymptomatic, a screening strategy might be of great value to reduce Q fever related complications. We designed a trial to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of a screening program for Q fever in pregnant women living in risks areas in The Netherlands. METHODS/DESIGN: We will conduct a clustered randomized controlled trial in which primary care midwife centres in Q fever risk areas are randomized to recruit pregnant women for either the control group or the intervention group. In both groups a blood sample is taken around 20 weeks postmenstrual age. In the intervention group, this sample is immediately analyzed by indirect immunofluorescence assay for detection of IgG and IgM antibodies using a sensitive cut-off level of 1:32. In case of an active Q fever infection, antibiotic treatment is recommended and serological follow up is performed. In the control group, serum is frozen for analysis after delivery. The primary endpoint is a maternal (chronic Q fever or reactivation) or obstetric complication (low birth weight, preterm delivery or fetal death) in Q fever positive women. Secondary aims pertain to the course of infection in pregnant women, diagnostic accuracy of laboratory tests used for screening, histo-pathological abnormalities of the placenta of Q fever positive women, side effects of therapy, and costs. The analysis will be according to the intention-to-screen principle, and cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed by comparing the direct and indirect costs between the intervention and control group. DISCUSSION: With this study we aim to provide insight into the balance of risks of undetected and detected Q fever during pregnancy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, protocol record NL30340.042.09

Tree-based ensembles unveil the microhabitat suitability for the invasive bleak (Alburnus alburnus L.) and pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus L.): Introducing XGBoost to eco-informatics

[EN] Random Forests (RFs) and Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) are popular approaches for habitat suitability modelling in environmental flow assessment. However, both present some limitations theoretically solved by alternative tree-based ensemble techniques (e.g. conditional RFs or oblique RFs). Among them, eXtreme Gradient Boosting machines (XGBoost) has proven to be another promising technique that mixes subroutines developed for RFs and GBMs. To inspect the capabilities of these alternative techniques, RFs and GBMs were compared with: conditional RFs, oblique RFs and XGBoost by modelling, at the micro-scale, the habitat suitability for the invasive bleak (Alburnus alburnus L.) and pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus L). XGBoost outperformed the other approaches, particularly conditional and oblique RFs, although there were no statistical differences with standard RFs and GBMs. The partial dependence plots highlighted the lacustrine origins of pumpkinseed and the preference for lentic habitats of bleak. However, the latter depicted a larger tolerance for rapid microhabitats found in run-type river segments, which is likely to hinder the management of flow regimes to control its invasion. The difference in the computational burden and, especially, the characteristics of datasets on microhabitat use (low data prevalence and high overlapping between categories) led us to conclude that, in the short term, XGBoost is not destined to replace properly optimised RFs and GBMs in the process of habitat suitability modelling at the micro-scale.This project had the support of Fundacion Biodiversidad, of Spanish Ministry for Ecological Transition. We want to thank the volunteering students of the Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Marina de Miguel, Carlos A. Puig-Mengual, Cristina Barea, Rares Hugianu, and Pau Rodriguez. R. Munoz-Mas benefitted from a postdoctoral Juan de la Cierva fellowship from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (ref. FJCI-2016-30829). This research was supported by the Government of Catalonia (ref. 2017 SGR 548).Muñoz-Mas, R.; Gil-Martínez, E.; Oliva-Paterna, FJ.; Belda, E.; Martinez-Capel, F. (2019). Tree-based ensembles unveil the microhabitat suitability for the invasive bleak (Alburnus alburnus L.) and pumpkinseed (Lepomis gibbosus L.): Introducing XGBoost to eco-informatics. Ecological Informatics. 53:1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.100974S1125

Southeastern Association of Law Libraries Annual Meeting

The 2009 SEAALL Annual Meeting was held in Athens Georgia, April 16-18, 2009

Metaheuristics “In the Large”

Many people have generously given their time to the various activities of the MitL initiative. Particular gratitude is due to Adam Barwell, John A. Clark, Patrick De Causmaecker, Emma Hart, Zoltan A. Kocsis, Ben Kovitz, Krzysztof Krawiec, John McCall, Nelishia Pillay, Kevin Sim, Jim Smith, Thomas Stutzle, Eric Taillard and Stefan Wagner. J. Swan acknowledges the support of UK EPSRC grant EP/J017515/1 and the EU H2020 SAFIRE Factories project. P. GarciaSanchez and J. J. Merelo acknowledges the support of TIN201785727-C4-2-P by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness. M. Wagner acknowledges the support of the Australian Research Council grants DE160100850 and DP200102364.Following decades of sustained improvement, metaheuristics are one of the great success stories of opti- mization research. However, in order for research in metaheuristics to avoid fragmentation and a lack of reproducibility, there is a pressing need for stronger scientific and computational infrastructure to sup- port the development, analysis and comparison of new approaches. To this end, we present the vision and progress of the Metaheuristics “In the Large”project. The conceptual underpinnings of the project are: truly extensible algorithm templates that support reuse without modification, white box problem descriptions that provide generic support for the injection of domain specific knowledge, and remotely accessible frameworks, components and problems that will enhance reproducibility and accelerate the field’s progress. We argue that, via such principled choice of infrastructure support, the field can pur- sue a higher level of scientific enquiry. We describe our vision and report on progress, showing how the adoption of common protocols for all metaheuristics can help liberate the potential of the field, easing the exploration of the design space of metaheuristics.UK Research & Innovation (UKRI)Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) EP/J017515/1EU H2020 SAFIRE Factories projectSpanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness TIN201785727-C4-2-PAustralian Research Council DE160100850 DP20010236