Predicting hospital stay, mortality and readmission in people admitted for hypoglycaemia: prognostic models derivation and validation

Aims/hypothesis: Hospital admissions for hypoglycaemia represent a significant burden on individuals with diabetes and have a substantial economic impact on healthcare systems. To date, no prognostic models have been developed to predict outcomes following admission for hypoglycaemia. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models to estimate risk of inpatient death, 24 h discharge and one month readmission in people admitted to hospital for hypoglycaemia. Methods: We used the Hospital Episode Statistics database, which includes data on all hospital admission to National Health Service hospital trusts in England, to extract admissions for hypoglycaemia between 2010 and 2014. We developed, internally and temporally validated, and compared two prognostic risk models for each outcome. The first model included age, sex, ethnicity, region, social deprivation and Charlson score (‘base’ model). In the second model, we added to the ‘base’ model the 20 most common medical conditions and applied a stepwise backward selection of variables (‘disease’ model). We used C-index and calibration plots to assess model performance and developed a calculator to estimate probabilities of outcomes according to individual characteristics. Results: In derivation samples, 296 out of 11,136 admissions resulted in inpatient death, 1789/33,825 in one month readmission and 8396/33,803 in 24 h discharge. Corresponding values for validation samples were: 296/10,976, 1207/22,112 and 5363/22,107. The two models had similar discrimination. In derivation samples, C-indices for the base and disease models, respectively, were: 0.77 (95% CI 0.75, 0.80) and 0.78 (0.75, 0.80) for death, 0.57 (0.56, 0.59) and 0.57 (0.56, 0.58) for one month readmission, and 0.68 (0.67, 0.69) and 0.69 (0.68, 0.69) for 24 h discharge. Corresponding values in validation samples were: 0.74 (0.71, 0.76) and 0.74 (0.72, 0.77), 0.55 (0.54, 0.57) and 0.55 (0.53, 0.56), and 0.66 (0.65, 0.67) and 0.67 (0.66, 0.68). In both derivation and validation samples, calibration plots showed good agreement for the three outcomes. We developed a calculator of probabilities for inpatient death and 24 h discharge given the low performance of one month readmission models. Conclusions/interpretation: This simple and pragmatic tool to predict in-hospital death and 24 h discharge has the potential to reduce mortality and improve discharge in people admitted for hypoglycaemia

Prospective community study of family stress and anxiety in (pre)adolescents: the TRAILS study

For prevention of anxiety in children and adolescents, it is important to know whether family stress is a predictor of anxiety. We studied this in 1,875 adolescents from the Tracking Adolescents’ Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS) who were followed up for 2 years, from age 10–12 to 12–14 years. Adolescents reported anxiety and depression symptoms at both assessments, and parents reported family stress (family dysfunction and parenting stress) at the first assessment. Family dysfunction was not associated with future anxiety, whereas high parenting stress was. Furthermore, family dysfunction was more strongly associated with anxiety than with depression, whereas parenting stress was more strongly associated with depression. Level of parental psychopathology explained part of the association of family stress with anxiety. The associations were modest and the understanding of the origins of adolescents’ anxiety will require identifying other factors than family stress that account for more of the variance

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections for Higgs boson production in the diphoton decay channel at s√=8 TeV with ATLAS

Measurements of fiducial and differential cross sections are presented for Higgs boson production in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√=8 TeV. The analysis is performed in the H → γγ decay channel using 20.3 fb−1 of data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The signal is extracted using a fit to the diphoton invariant mass spectrum assuming that the width of the resonance is much smaller than the experimental resolution. The signal yields are corrected for the effects of detector inefficiency and resolution. The pp → H → γγ fiducial cross section is measured to be 43.2 ±9.4(stat.) − 2.9 + 3.2 (syst.) ±1.2(lumi)fb for a Higgs boson of mass 125.4GeV decaying to two isolated photons that have transverse momentum greater than 35% and 25% of the diphoton invariant mass and each with absolute pseudorapidity less than 2.37. Four additional fiducial cross sections and two cross-section limits are presented in phase space regions that test the theoretical modelling of different Higgs boson production mechanisms, or are sensitive to physics beyond the Standard Model. Differential cross sections are also presented, as a function of variables related to the diphoton kinematics and the jet activity produced in the Higgs boson events. The observed spectra are statistically limited but broadly in line with the theoretical expectations

Evidence for the Higgs-boson Yukawa coupling to tau leptons with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for H → τ τ decays are presented, based on the full set of proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC during 2011 and 2012. The data correspond to integrated luminosities of 4.5 fb−1 and 20.3 fb−1 at centre-of-mass energies of √s = 7 TeV and √s = 8 TeV respectively. All combinations of leptonic (τ → `νν¯ with ` = e, µ) and hadronic (τ → hadrons ν) tau decays are considered. An excess of events over the expected background from other Standard Model processes is found with an observed (expected) significance of 4.5 (3.4) standard deviations. This excess provides evidence for the direct coupling of the recently discovered Higgs boson to fermions. The measured signal strength, normalised to the Standard Model expectation, of µ = 1.43 +0.43 −0.37 is consistent with the predicted Yukawa coupling strength in the Standard Model

Pre-Clinical Drug Prioritization via Prognosis-Guided Genetic Interaction Networks

The high rates of failure in oncology drug clinical trials highlight the problems of using pre-clinical data to predict the clinical effects of drugs. Patient population heterogeneity and unpredictable physiology complicate pre-clinical cancer modeling efforts. We hypothesize that gene networks associated with cancer outcome in heterogeneous patient populations could serve as a reference for identifying drug effects. Here we propose a novel in vivo genetic interaction which we call ‘synergistic outcome determination’ (SOD), a concept similar to ‘Synthetic Lethality’. SOD is defined as the synergy of a gene pair with respect to cancer patients' outcome, whose correlation with outcome is due to cooperative, rather than independent, contributions of genes. The method combines microarray gene expression data with cancer prognostic information to identify synergistic gene-gene interactions that are then used to construct interaction networks based on gene modules (a group of genes which share similar function). In this way, we identified a cluster of important epigenetically regulated gene modules. By projecting drug sensitivity-associated genes on to the cancer-specific inter-module network, we defined a perturbation index for each drug based upon its characteristic perturbation pattern on the inter-module network. Finally, by calculating this index for compounds in the NCI Standard Agent Database, we significantly discriminated successful drugs from a broad set of test compounds, and further revealed the mechanisms of drug combinations. Thus, prognosis-guided synergistic gene-gene interaction networks could serve as an efficient in silico tool for pre-clinical drug prioritization and rational design of combinatorial therapies

Assessment of interactions between 205 breast cancer susceptibility loci and 13 established risk factors in relation to breast cancer risk, in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Previous gene-environment interaction studies of breast cancer risk have provided sparse evidence of interactions. Using the largest available dataset to date, we performed a comprehensive assessment of potential effect modification of 205 common susceptibility variants by 13 established breast cancer risk factors, including replication of previously reported interactions. METHODS: Analyses were performed using 28 176 cases and 32 209 controls genotyped with iCOGS array and 44 109 cases and 48 145 controls genotyped using OncoArray from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (BCAC). Gene-environment interactions were assessed using unconditional logistic regression and likelihood ratio tests for breast cancer risk overall and by estrogen-receptor (ER) status. Bayesian false discovery probability was used to assess the noteworthiness of the meta-analysed array-specific interactions. RESULTS: Noteworthy evidence of interaction at ≤1% prior probability was observed for three single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-risk factor pairs. SNP rs4442975 was associated with a greater reduction of risk of ER-positive breast cancer [odds ratio (OR)int = 0.85 (0.78-0.93), Pint = 2.8 x 10-4] and overall breast cancer [ORint = 0.85 (0.78-0.92), Pint = 7.4 x 10-5) in current users of estrogen-progesterone therapy compared with non-users. This finding was supported by replication using OncoArray data of the previously reported interaction between rs13387042 (r2 = 0.93 with rs4442975) and current estrogen-progesterone therapy for overall disease (Pint = 0.004). The two other interactions suggested stronger associations between SNP rs6596100 and ER-negative breast cancer with increasing parity and younger age at first birth. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our study does not suggest strong effect modification of common breast cancer susceptibility variants by established risk factors

Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Searches for the Zγ decay mode of the Higgs boson and for new high-mass resonances in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This article presents searches for the Zγ decay of the Higgs boson and for narrow high-mass resonances decaying to Zγ, exploiting Z boson decays to pairs of electrons or muons. The data analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of pp collisions at √s=13 recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The data are found to be consistent with the expected Standard Model background. The observed (expected — assuming Standard Model pp → H → Zγ production and decay) upper limit on the production cross section times the branching ratio for pp → H → Zγ is 6.6. (5.2) times the Standard Model prediction at the 95% confidence level for a Higgs boson mass of 125.09 GeV. In addition, upper limits are set on the production cross section times the branching ratio as a function of the mass of a narrow resonance between 250 GeV and 2.4 TeV, assuming spin-0 resonances produced via gluon-gluon fusion, and spin-2 resonances produced via gluon-gluon or quark-antiquark initial states. For high-mass spin-0 resonances, the observed (expected) limits vary between 88 fb (61 fb) and 2.8 fb (2.7 fb) for the mass range from 250 GeV to 2.4 TeV at the 95% confidence level

Search for a high-mass Higgs boson decaying to a W boson pair in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for a high-mass Higgs boson H is performed in the H → WW → ℓνℓν and H → WW → ℓνqq decay channels using pp collision data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−¹ collected at √s = 8 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No evidence of a high-mass Higgs boson is found. Limits on σH × BR(H → WW) as a function of the Higgs boson mass mH are determined in three different scenarios: one in which the heavy Higgs boson has a narrow width compared to the experimental resolution, one for a width increasing with the boson mass and modeled by the complex-pole scheme following the same behavior as in the Standard Model, and one for intermediate widths. The upper range of the search is mH = 1500 GeV for the narrow-width scenario and mH = 1000 GeV for the other two scenarios. The lower edge of the search range is 200–300 GeV and depends on the analysis channel and search scenario. For each signal interpretation, individual and combined limits from the two WW decay channels are presented. At mH = 1500 GeV, the highest-mass point tested, σH × BR(H → WW) for a narrow-width Higgs boson is constrained to be less than 22 fb and 6.6 fb at 95% CL for the gluon fusion and vector-boson fusion production modes, respectively

Measurement of the Higgs boson coupling properties in the H → ZZ* → 4 decay channel at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The coupling properties of the Higgs boson are studied in the four-lepton (e, μ) decay channel using 36.1 fb−1 of pp collision data from the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector. Cross sections are measured for the main production modes in several exclusive regions of the Higgs boson production phase space and are interpreted in terms of coupling modifiers. The inclusive cross section times branching ratio for H → ZZ∗ decay and for a Higgs boson absolute rapidity below 2.5 is measured to be 1. 73 − 0.23 + 0.24 (stat.) − 0.08 + 0.10 (exp.) ± 0.04(th.) pb compared to the Standard Model prediction of 1.34±0.09 pb. In addition, the tensor structure of the Higgs boson couplings is studied using an effective Lagrangian approach for the description of interactions beyond the Standard Model. Constraints are placed on the non-Standard-Model CP-even and CP-odd couplings to Z bosons and on the CP-odd coupling to gluons