Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Effect of Senna obtusifolia (L.) invasion on herbaceous vegetation and soil properties of rangelands in the western Tigray, northern Ethiopia

Abstract Introduction Invasion of exotic plant species is a well-known threat to native ecosystems since it directly affects native plant communities by altering their composition and diversity. Moreover, exotic plant species displace native species through competition, changes in ecosystem processes, or allelopathic effects. Senna obtusifolia (L.) invasion has affected the growth and productivity of herbaceous vegetation in semi-arid regions of northern Ethiopia. Here, we investigated the species composition, species diversity, aboveground biomass, and basal cover of herbaceous vegetation, as well as soil properties of rangelands along three S. obtusifolia invasion levels. Methods Herbaceous vegetation and soil properties were studied at two locations, Kafta Humera and Tsegede districts, in the western Tigray region of northern Ethiopia under three levels of S. obtusifolia invasion, i.e., non-invaded, lightly invaded, and heavily invaded. Herbaceous plant species composition and their abundance were assessed using a 1-m2 quadrat during the flowering stage of most herbaceous species from mid-August to September 2015. Native species were classified into different functional groups and palatability classes, which can be useful in understanding mechanisms underlying the differential responses of native plants to invasion. The percentage of basal cover for S. obtusifolia and native species and that of bare ground were estimated in each quadrat. Similar to sampling of the herbaceous species, soil samples at a depth of 0–20 cm were taken for analyzing soil physical and chemical properties. Results Highly palatable grasses and legumes based on the frequency of occurrence were 1.9 and 3.8 times higher in non-invaded sites than in lightly and heavily invaded sites, respectively. Furthermore, unpalatable plant species were 4.0 times higher in the heavily invaded sites than in the lightly invaded sites. Aboveground biomass, basal cover, and species diversity of the herbaceous vegetation were significantly (P < 0.01) lower in the heavily invaded sites compared to the non-invaded sites. However, most soil properties were not affected by S. obtusifolia invasion compared with non-invaded sites in our study. Conclusions Our findings contribute towards better understanding of how S. obtusifolia invasion affects the community structure and composition of native herbaceous vegetation in semi-arid rangelands in northern Ethiopia. Further long-term studies are required to understand the mechanisms of how S. obtusifolia invasion influences soil properties for better control and eradication of its invasion in the semi-arid rangelands of northern Ethiopia

Perception and attitude of pastoralists on livestock-wildlife interactions around Awash National Park, Ethiopia: implication for biodiversity conservation

Abstract Introduction Pastoral livestock share grazing areas and watering points with wildlife around the protected areas in Eastern Africa. This causes a high degree of livestock-wildlife interactions, leading to conflicts between the local community and park staff. Thus, understanding the perception and attitude of local people towards livestock-wildlife interaction is very crucial to optimize both livestock production and biodiversity conservation in protected areas. This paper presents the perception and attitude of local community towards livestock-wildlife interactions around Awash National Park (ANP), Ethiopia. Methods Interview to 180 randomly selected households, representing Afar, Ittu, and Kereyu ethnic groups living around ANP, was conducted from August to December 2015 using a semi-structured questionnaire. Data on community attitude towards wildlife, livestock production systems, and its constraints were collected through focus group- and key informant discussions. We used ordinal logistic regression model to analyze community attitude towards wildlife conservation. Results Respondents ranked feed shortage (0.38), lack of water (0.32), and climate change (0.30) as the major constraints of livestock production around ANP. A high degree of conflict (79%; χ 2 = 24.09; df = 2; P = 0.000) between the local community and park was recorded. About 73% of the households would be ready to live in harmony with the park. However, 85% of park staff considered the community as a threat, due to high livestock grazing pressure and illegal park resource use. Overall, community attitude towards wildlife significantly varied (χ 2 = 46.28; df = 4; P = 0.00) particularly due to educational level (χ 2 = 15.96; df = 6; P = 0.014), income source (χ 2 = 16.77; df = 2; P = 0.00), and distance of household from ANP (χ 2 = 20.51; df = 4; P = 0.00). The logistic regression model revealed that ethnic group, education, benefit obtained, and conflict with the park were significantly associated with attitude towards wildlife (χ2 15 = 76.62; df = 16; P = 0.000). Conclusions Majority of respondents showed positive attitude towards wildlife, implying a better chance to mobilize the community for conservation activities in the park. Thus, expansion of formal and adult education as well as livelihood diversification strategies that could benefit the pastoral community would help to improve community attitude towards wildlife so that both wildlife conservation and livestock production can be optimized around ANP

Changes in grass plant populations and temporal soil seed bank dynamics in a semi-arid African savanna : Implications for restoration

The re-colonization or recovery of grass species after disappearance due to heavy grazing depends on the presence of persistent soil seed banks that might be accumulated over time from the aboveground vegetation. Moreover, successful plant recruitment is a function of seed production, seed germination and seedling survival, which can be mechanistically understood through studying the life cycle processes of grass species populations under field conditions. Therefore, we studied the number of germinable seeds, species richness and life-forms in the soil seed banks under light and heavy grazing conditions, and the changes in grass species populations in a semi-arid savanna of Ethiopia. Accordingly, a total of 103 species (15 perennial and 29 annual grasses, 6 legumes, 52 forbs and 1 woody species) emerged from the soil samples collected. Lightly grazed sites had a higher seed density compared with heavily grazed sites. The seed density increased over the first three months of soil sampling and decreased thereafter. Perennial grasses dominated the light grazing sites, whereas annual species dominated the heavily grazed sites, indicating that perennial grasses were replaced by annual species in the soil seed bank through grazing. The mean mortality rate from the seedling stage to adult plants was 65%. The seed-to-seedling stage was found to be the most critical transitional stage for grass survival. High seedling mortality in the aboveground vegetation and depletion of seeds in the soil seed banks as a result of sustained heavy grazing can lead to local extinction and disappearance of perennial grasses in semi-arid Ethiopian savannas.</p

Rangeland water requirement satisfaction index under rainfall variability and predicting future rainfall scenarios: implication for availability of feed resources

Abstract Introduction Rangeland ecosystems provide multiple ecosystem services, including feed resources for wild and domestic herbivores in semi-arid areas. However, under the ever increasing environmental changes, the impact of rainfall variability on the productivity and vegetation dynamics of rangelands are the great challenges that pastoral community are facing today. As a result, the potentials of most rangelands in semi-arid ecosystems affect the livestockproduction. Therefore, we studied the interconnections between the long-term rainfall variation and the rangeland Water Requirement and Satisfaction Index (WRSI) in Mieso, Jigjiga, and Shinile districts under pastoral conditions of Ethiopia. Methods The base period rainfall data (1984–2015) was obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia, whereas the future rainfall trend was predicted using MarkSim software (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 GHG concentration trajectory). Mann-Kendall’s statistical tests, coefficient of variation, LEAP software (version 2.61), and Minitab Software (version 15) were used to assess the relationship between rangeland WRSI and long-term rainfall variability. Results The result indicated that mean annual rainfall anomaly had strong positive correlation with rangeland WRSI in Mieso (P < 0.05), Jigjiga (P < 0.001), and Shinile (P < 0.001) pastoral areas. Similarly, short and long rainy seasons had positive association (P < 0.001) with rangeland WRSI, especially in Jigjiga and Shinile pastoral districts. The base period rainfall as well as the predicted annual rainfall showed variability in amount and distribution in all studied districts in pastoral areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions The mean annual rainfall anomaly is correlated with the rangeland WRSI. Moreover, the future rainfall trend analysis indicated that variability of rainfall would be expected in between the years 2020–2049, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. Thus, the future rainfall variability would limit future rangeland WRSI under pastoral conditions of Ethiopia. Based on our study, we suggested establishment and implementation of early warning systems to reduce the likely impact of rainfall variability on future rangeland potential in dry lands under the pastoral production systems in eastern Ethiopia

Data from: Carbon sequestration and soil restoration potential of grazing lands under exclosure management in a semi-arid environment of northern Ethiopia

Exclosures are used to regenerate native vegetation as a way to reduce soil erosion, increase rain water infiltration and provide fodder and woody biomass in degraded grazing lands. Therefore, this study assessed the impact of grazing exclosure on vegetation biomass, carbon sequestration and soil nutrients under five and ten years of grazing exclosures and freely grazed areas in Tigray, northern Ethiopia. Vegetation biomass, carbon stocks and soil nutrients increased with increasing grazing exclusion. However, open grazing lands and five years of grazing exclosure did not differ in aboveground biomass, above-and-belowground carbon stocks. Moreover, ten years of grazing exclosure had a higher (P<0.01) grass, herb and litter carbon stocks compared to five years exclosure and open grazing lands. The total carbon stock was higher for ten years exclosure (75.65 t C ha-1) than the five years exclosure (55.06 t C ha-1) and in open grazing areas (51.98 t C ha-1). Grazing lands closed for ten years had a higher SOC, organic matter, total N, available P, and exchangeable K+ and Na+ compared to five year’s exclosure and open grazing lands. Therefore, establishment of grazing exclosures had a positive effect in restoring degraded grazing lands, thus improving vegetation biomass, carbon sequestration potentials and soil nutrients

Effect of Vachellia tortilis on understory vegetation, herbaceous biomass and soil nutrients along a grazing gradient in a semi-arid African savanna

The spatial pattern and abundance of herbaceous vegetation in semi-arid savannas are dictated by a complex and dynamic interaction between trees and grasses. Scattered trees alter the composition and spatial distribution of herbaceous vegetation under their canopies. Therefore, we studied the effect of Vachellia tortilis on herbaceous vegetation composition, biomass and basal area, and soil nutrients on sites with varying grazing intensities in the central rift valley of Ethiopia. Data were collected on species composition, cover and biomass of herbs and grasses, and soil moisture and nutrient contents under light, medium, and heavy grazing pressures, both under the inside and outside of V. tortilis canopies. Species richness was similar in both locations but decreased with increased grazing. Only the overall biomass and herb cover were significantly greater under the canopy than outside, and overall biomass showed significant unchanging decline with increased grazing. However, vegetation cover was significantly greater on moderately grazed sites compared to low and heavily grazed sites. All soil variables were significantly higher under V. tortilis canopies than outside. Our findings suggest that V. tortilis has more effect on composition and diversity of herbaceous vegetation than on species richness, and that V. tortilis promotes the herbaceous layer biomass by reducing soil moisture loss and increasing soil fertility under the inside than outside the canopies. Therefore, we suggest that management practices should be directed on reducing pressure on V. tortilis by regulating grazing. Low to moderate grazing levels (i.e., a stocking rate less than 39.6 TLU ha −1 yr −1 ) seems to be tolerable to ensure sustainable conservation of the species in the study area in particular and in semi-arid savannas in general

Soil seed bank dynamics under the influence of grazing as alternative explanation for herbaceous vegetation transitions in semi-arid rangelands

Ecological studies have frequently stressed that the availability of seeds in the soil is important for the recovery of semi-arid rangelands. However, the crucial role of soil seed banks has not been incorporated into rangeland models to understand vegetation states and transitions in semi-arid rangelands. We developed and evaluated a novel model to show that the availability of seeds in the soil seed banks as a function of plant cover can trigger transitions from perennial to annual grasses and from annual grasses to bare soil with increasing grazing pressure. The model indicates that when grazing pressure is low, a high cover of perennial grasses and a large soil seed bank of these grasses may be present, whereas annual grasses with their seeds in the soil appear with increasing grazing. When grazing pressure further increases, vegetation cover and the soil seed bank size decline. We found that the positive feedback between plant cover and the size of the soil seed bank depends on seed traits, i.e., longevity and germination rate. This positive feedback is an alternative explanation for a sudden vegetation changes in rangelands, which are often explained by the positive feedback between plant cover and the infiltration rate of rain into the soil. In contrast to this latter positive feedback, our model can explain shifts in vegetation from perennials to annuals and vice versa on different soil types, which are often seen in semi-arid rangelands. Our model contributes therefore to the understanding of vegetation dynamics for the proper management and possible restoration of degraded semi-arid rangelands