Methods to convert continuous outcomes into odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat: meta-epidemiological study

Background Clinicians find standardized mean differences (SMDs) calculated from continuous outcomes difficult to interpret. Our objective was to determine the performance of methods in converting SMDs or means to odds ratios of treatment response and numbers needed to treat (NNTs) as more intuitive measures of treatment effect. Methods Meta-epidemiological study of large-scale trials (≥100 patients per group) comparing active treatment with placebo, sham or non-intervention control. Trials had to use pain or global symptoms as continuous outcomes and report both the percentage of patients with treatment response and mean pain or symptom scores per group. For each trial, we calculated odds ratios of observed treatment response and NNTs and approximated these estimates from SMDs or means using all five currently available conversion methods by Hasselblad and Hedges (HH), Cox and Snell (CS), Furukawa (FU), Suissa (SU) and Kraemer and Kupfer (KK). We compared observed and approximated values within trials by deriving pooled ratios of odds ratios (RORs) and differences in NNTs. ROR <1 and positive differences in NNTs imply that approximations are more conservative than estimates calculated from observed treatment response. As measures of agreement, we calculated intraclass correlation coefficients. Results A total of 29 trials in 13 654 patients were included. Four out of five methods were suitable (HH, CS, FU, SU), with RORs between 0.92 for SU [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.86-0.99] and 0.97 for HH (95% CI, 0.91-1.04) and differences in NNTs between 0.5 (95% CI, −0.1 to −1.6) and 1.3 (95% CI, 0.4-2.1). Intraclass correlation coefficients were ≥0.90 for these four methods, but ≤0.76 for the fifth method by KK (P for differences ≤0.027). Conclusions The methods by HH, CS, FU and SU are suitable to convert summary treatment effects calculated from continuous outcomes into odds ratios of treatment response and NNTs, whereas the method by KK is unsuitabl

The length-tension diagrams of human oblique muscles in trochlear palsy and strabismus sursoadductorius

We determined the relation between length and tension in detached oblique muscles of 16 strabismus patients that underwent surgery, before and during contraction evoked by intravenous administration of succinylcholine. We frequently found a nonlinear relation between length and tension, unlike our previous findings in recti. In superior oblique palsies, the superior oblique was found, before injection of succinylcholine, to be stiff after elongation, and did not contract after injection of succinylcholine, while the ipsilateral inferior oblique contract after injection of succinylcholine, but with a higher spring constant than did usual. In 3 cases the superior oblique contracted vividly after administration of succinylcholine despite the presence of excyclotropia, stereopsis, torticollis (2 cases) and a hypertropia that increased in adduction, in downgaze, in adduction-and-downgaze and on ipsilateral head-tilt. The finding of a vividly contracting superior oblique is incompatible with the diagnosis of a complete superior oblique palsy. We conclude that some of the cases diagnosed as congenital superior oblique palsy, having a hypertropia increasing in adduction, in downgaze, in adduction-and-downgaze and on ipsilateral head-tilt, are in fact cases of unilateral strabismus sursoadductorius (upshoot in adduction), a non-paretic motility disorder

Pacific origin of the abrupt increase in Indian Ocean heat content during the warming hiatus

Global mean surface warming has stalled since the end of the twentieth century1, 2, but the net radiation imbalance at the top of the atmosphere continues to suggest an increasingly warming planet. This apparent contradiction has been reconciled by an anomalous heat flux into the ocean3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, induced by a shift towards a La Niña-like state with cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific over the past decade or so. A significant portion of the heat missing from the atmosphere is therefore expected to be stored in the Pacific Ocean. However, in situ hydrographic records indicate that Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing9. Here, we analyse observations along with simulations from a global ocean–sea ice model to track the pathway of heat. We find that the enhanced heat uptake by the Pacific Ocean has been compensated by an increased heat transport from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean, carried by the Indonesian throughflow. As a result, Indian Ocean heat content has increased abruptly, which accounts for more than 70% of the global ocean heat gain in the upper 700 m during the past decade. We conclude that the Indian Ocean has become increasingly important in modulating global climate variability

Rethinking Serious Games Design in the Age of COVID-19: Setting the Focus on Wicked Problems

We live in a complex world, in which our existence is defined by forces that we cannot fully comprehend, predict, nor control. This is the world of wicked problems, of which the situation triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic is a notable example. Wicked problems are complex scenarios defined by the interplay of multiple environmental, social and economic factors. They are everchanging, and largely unpredictable and uncontrollable. As a consequence, wicked problems cannot be definitively solved through traditional problem-solving approaches. Instead, they should be iteratively managed, recognizing and valuing our connectedness with each other and the environment, and engaging in joint thinking and action to identify and pursue the common good. Serious games can be key to foster wicked problem management abilities. To this end, they should engage players in collective activities set in contexts simulating real-world wicked problem scenarios. These should require the continuous interpretation of changing circumstances to identify and pursue shared goals, promoting the development of knowledge, attitudes and skill sets relevant to tackle real-world situations. In this paper we outline the nature, implications and challenges of wicked problems, highlighting why games should be leveraged to foster wicked problem management abilities. Then, we propose a theory-based framework to support the design of games for this purpose

Improved Outcome Prediction Using CT Angiography in Addition to Standard Ischemic Stroke Assessment: Results from the STOPStroke Study

Purpose: To improve ischemic stroke outcome prediction using imaging information from a prospective cohort who received admission CT angiography (CTA). Methods: In a prospectively designed study, 649 stroke patients diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke had admission NIH stroke scale scores, noncontrast CT (NCCT), CTA, and 6-month outcome assessed using the modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores. Poor outcome was defined as mRS.2. Strokes were classified as ‘‘major’ ’ by the (1) Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS+) if NCCT ASPECTS was#7; (2) Boston Acute Stroke Imaging Scale (BASIS+) if they were ASPECTS+ or CTA showed occlusion of the distal internal carotid, proximal middle cerebral, or basilar arteries; and (3) NIHSS for scores.10. Results: Of 649 patients, 253 (39.0%) had poor outcomes. NIHSS, BASIS, and age, but not ASPECTS, were independent predictors of outcome. BASIS and NIHSS had similar sensitivities, both superior to ASPECTS (p,0.0001). Combining NIHSS with BASIS was highly predictive: 77.6 % (114/147) classified as NIHSS.10/BASIS+ had poor outcomes, versus 21.5 % (77/358) with NIHSS#10/BASIS2 (p,0.0001), regardless of treatment. The odds ratios for poor outcome is 12.6 (95 % CI: 7.9 to 20.0

No cold dust within the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A

A large amount (about three solar masses) of cold (18 K) dust in the prototypical type II supernova remnant Cassiopeia A was recently reported. It was concluded that dust production in type II supernovae can explain how the large quantities (10^8 solar masses) of dust observed in the most distant quasars could have been produced within only 700 million years after the Big Bang. Foreground clouds of interstellar material, however, complicate the interpretation of the earlier submillimetre observations of Cas A. Here we report far-infrared and molecular line observations that demonstrate that most of the detected submillimetre emission originates from interstellar dust in a molecular cloud complex located in the line of sight between the Earth and Cas A, and is therefore not associated with the remnant. The argument that type II supernovae produce copious amounts of dust is not supported by the case of Cas A, which previously appeared to provide the best evidence for this possibility.Comment: 13 pages, 3 figure

ISRCTN12125882 - Influence of topical anti-VEGF (Ranibizumab) on the outcome of filtration surgery for glaucoma - Study Protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excessive wound healing, with scarring of the episcleral tissue or encapsulation of the filtering bleb is the main reason for failure in trabeculectomy. Ranibizumab, an inhibitor of the Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF), is seen as a promising candidate to prevent or treat extensive wound healing. We describe the design of a two phased study, i) assessing the local tolerability and safety of topical ranibizumab and ii) assessing the efficacy of topical ranibizumab against placebo in patients who underwent trabeculectomy with mitomycin C combined with phacoemulsification and intra ocular lens (IOL) implantation.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>In the first phase five patients that had trabeculectomy with mitomycin C combined with phacoemulsification and IOL implantation will be treated with topical ranibizumab (Lucentis^®) eye drops (2 mg/ml) four times daily for one month. The treatment will be started at the first postoperative day. Patients will be assessed for local and systemic side effects using a standardised schedule. In the second phase, after successful completion of phase 1, consenting eligible patients who underwent trabeculectomy with mitomycin C combined with phacoemulsification and IOL implantation will be randomised to either receive topical ranibizumab eye drops (2 mg/ml) four times daily for 1 month or placebo (BSS 4x/d for 1 month). Patients will be reviewed weekly for 4 weeks until conjunctival sutures are removed. Further follow up examinations are planned after 3 and six months. Assessment of differences in the intraocular eye pressure will be considered primary, and bleb appearance/vascularisation using a standardized photography and the Moorfields bleb grading system, postoperative intraocular pressure and conjunctival wound healing problems will be considered secondary outcome parameters.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Anti-VEGF-antibodies might be more effective in preventing scaring and might have fewer toxic side effects than the currently used anti-metabolites and may replace them in the long term.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN12125882">ISRCTN12125882</a></p

In vivo tissue uptake of intravenously injected water soluble all-trans β-carotene used as a food colorant

Water soluble β-carotene (WS-BC) is a carotenoid form that has been developed as a food colorant. WS-BC is known to contain 10% of all-trans β-carotene (AT-BC). The aim of the present study was to investigate in vivo tissue uptake of AT-BC after the administration of WS-BC into rats. Seven-week-old male rats were administered 20 mg of WS-BC dissolved in saline by intravenous injection into the tail vein. At 0, 6, 24, 72, 120 and 168 hours (n = 7/time), blood was drawn and liver, lungs, adrenal glands, kidneys and testes were dissected. The levels of AT-BC in the plasma and dissected tissues were quantified with HPLC. After intravenous administration, AT-BC level in plasma first increased up to 6 h and returned to normal at 72 h. In the testes, the AT-BC level first increased up to 24 h and then did not decrease but was retained up to 168 h. In the other tissues, the level first increased up to 6 h and then decreased from 6 to 120 or 168 h but did not return to normal. The accumulation of WS-BC in testes but not in the other 5 tissues examined may suggest that AT-BC was excreted or metabolized in these tissues but not in testes. Although WS-BC is commonly used as a food colorant, its effects on body tissues are still not clarified. Results of the present study suggest that further investigations are required to elucidate effects of WS-BC on various body tissues