An Investigation into Appraisal Bias: The Role of Decision Support Tools in Debiasing Valuation Judgments

Given the nature of the valuation task environment appraisers are often made aware of previous value opinions rendered by appraisers, commonly in the form of an historic appraisal. And, because an appraisal task involves the rendering of market value, a hypothetical, unobservable construct based on probabilities, direct feedback against this objective is typically not possible. Alternate signals derived from the task environment such as confirmation of previous appraised values may be employed, thereby potentially altering the appraiser’s perception of the valuation objective leading to divergence from the normative model. The real estate behavioral literature suggests commercial appraisers have been susceptible to anonymous value opinions of experts, often times resulting in biased valuation judgments. This research is the first to focus on decision support tools as a technique to eliminate systematic biases in the appraisal process. The study focuses on the value opinion of an anonymous expert as a source of potential bias, because the value opinion of an anonymous expert is a common non-sanctioned source of influence representing a clear departure in the normative appraisal process. To operationalize the research hypotheses a two-factor randomized experiment to investigate the stated research hypotheses was conducted

US Congress and the politics of strategy

This paper addresses the question of how politics, especially in the US Congress, shapes US strategic policy, particularly towards Asia. Asia Pacific countries can use the political environment to influence American strategy. The US Pivot to Asia unfolds against the backdrop of a deeply divided Congress, not given to passing much legislation. Levers available to influence US Asian security strategy are few but important. Refining and sharpening those levers will figure prominently in Australia's continued success in the American capital

Cloning and functional characterisation of polyunsaturated fatty acid elongases of marine and freshwater teleost fish

Enzymes that lengthen the carbon chain of polyunsaturated fatty acids are key to the biosynthesis of the highly unsaturated fatty acids, arachidonic, eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic acids from linoleic and α-linolenic acids. A Mortierella alpina cDNA polyunsaturated fatty acid elongase sequence identified mammalian, amphibian, zebrafish and insect expressed sequence tags (ESTs) in GenBank. Consensus primers were designed in conserved motifs and used to isolate full length cDNA from livers of several fish species by Rapid Amplification of cDNA Ends (RACE). The amplified cDNAs encoded putative open reading frames (ORFs) of 288-294 amino acids that were highly conserved among the fish species. Heterologous expression in yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, demonstrated that all of the ORFs encoded elongases with the ability to lengthen polyunsaturated fatty acid substrates with chain lengths from C18 to C22 and also monounsaturated fatty acids, but not saturated fatty acids. There were differences in the functional competence of the elongases from different fish species. Most of the fish elongases showed a pattern of activity towards different fatty acid substrates in the rank order C18 > C20 >C22, although the tilapia and turbot elongases had similar activity towards 18:4n-3 and 20:5n-3. The fish elongases generally showed greater activity or similar activities with n-3 than with n-6 homologues, with the exception of the cod enzyme which was more active towards n-6 fatty acids

Total synthesis of the Amaryllidaceae alkaloid clivonine

Two syntheses of the Amaryllidaceae alkaloid clivonine (1) are described. Both employ previously reported 7-arylhydrindane 6 as an intermediate but differ in the method employed for subsequent introduction of what becomes the ring-B lactone carbonyl carbon (C7). The synthesis featuring a Bischler–Napieralski reaction for this transformation constitutes the first asymmetric synthesis of natural (+)-clivonine. Crystal structures for compounds (±)-13, (±)-16, (−)-20 and (±)-28 are also reported

Highly unsaturated fatty acid synthesis in marine fish: Cloning, functional characterization, and nutritional regulation of fatty acyl delta6 desaturase of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.)

Fish contain high levels of the n-3 highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFA), eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic (DHA) acids that are crucial to the health of higher vertebrates. Biosynthesis of HUFA requires enzyme-mediated desaturation of fatty acids. Here we report cloning and functional characterisation of a ∆6 fatty acyl desaturase of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and describe its tissue expression and nutritional regulation. PCR primers were designed based on the sequences of conserved motifs in available fish desaturases and used to isolate a cDNA fragment from liver of cod. The full-length cDNA was obtained by Rapid Amplification of cDNA Ends (RACE). The cDNA for the putative fatty acyl desaturase was shown to comprise 1980bp which included a 5’-UTR of 261bp and a 3’-UTR of 375bp. Sequencing revealed that the cDNA included an ORF of 1344 bp that specified a protein of 447 amino acids. The protein sequence included three histidine boxes, two transmembrane regions, and an N-terminal cytochrome b5 domain containing the haem-binding motif HPGG, all of which are characteristic of microsomal fatty acid desaturases. The cDNA displayed Δ6 desaturase activity in a heterologous yeast expression system. Quantitative real time PCR assay of gene expression in cod showed that the ∆6 desaturase gene, was highly expressed in brain, relatively highly expressed in liver, kidney, intestine, red muscle and gill, and expressed at much lower levels in white muscle, spleen and heart. In contrast, the abundance of a cod fatty acyl elongase transcript was high in brain and gill, with intermediate levels in kidney, spleen, intestine and heart, and relatively low expression in liver. The expression of the Δ6 desaturase gene and the PUFA elongase gene may be under a degree of nutritional regulation, with levels being marginally increased in livers and intestine of fish fed a vegetable oil blend by comparison with levels in fish fed fish oil. However, this was not reflected in increased Δ6 desaturase activity in hepatocytes or enterocytes, which showed very little highly unsaturated fatty acid biosynthesis activity irrespective of diet. The study described has demonstrated that Atlantic cod express a fatty acid desaturase gene with functional Δ6 activity in a yeast expression system. This is consistent with an established hypothesis that the poor ability of marine fish to synthesise HUFA is not due to lack of a Δ6 desaturase, but rather to deficiencies in other parts of the biosynthetic pathway. However, further studies are required to determine why the Δ6 desaturase appears to be barely functional in cod under the conditions tested

Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments

Many Labs 5:Testing pre-data collection peer review as an intervention to increase replicability

Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3?9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276?3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (?r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00?.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19?.50)

A multi-country test of brief reappraisal interventions on emotions during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has increased negative emotions and decreased positive emotions globally. Left unchecked, these emotional changes might have a wide array of adverse impacts. To reduce negative emotions and increase positive emotions, we tested the effectiveness of reappraisal, an emotion-regulation strategy that modifies how one thinks about a situation. Participants from 87 countries and regions (n = 21,644) were randomly assigned to one of two brief reappraisal interventions (reconstrual or repurposing) or one of two control conditions (active or passive). Results revealed that both reappraisal interventions (vesus both control conditions) consistently reduced negative emotions and increased positive emotions across different measures. Reconstrual and repurposing interventions had similar effects. Importantly, planned exploratory analyses indicated that reappraisal interventions did not reduce intentions to practice preventive health behaviours. The findings demonstrate the viability of creating scalable, low-cost interventions for use around the world

The virtual agora: Online ethical dialogues and Professional communities

The Greek agora, or market place, was where citizens met to discuss and debate topics of importance. The agora has been resurrected in electronic form, giving voice to many. Like the agora of old this largely unmediated forum provides important new avenues for debate. Examined here is the use of World Wide Web technology in fostering and sustaining ethical debates within and between professional communities