Effects of electrojet turbulence on a magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation of a geomagnetic storm

Ionospheric conductance plays an important role in regulating the response of the magnetosphere‐ionosphere system to solar wind driving. Typically, models of magnetosphere‐ionosphere coupling include changes to ionospheric conductance driven by extreme ultraviolet ionization and electron precipitation. This paper shows that effects driven by the Farley‐Buneman instability can also create significant enhancements in the ionospheric conductance, with substantial impacts on geospace. We have implemented a method of including electrojet turbulence (ET) effects into the ionospheric conductance model utilized within geospace simulations. Our particular implementation is tested with simulations of the Lyon‐Fedder‐Mobarry global magnetosphere model coupled with the Rice Convection Model of the inner magnetosphere. We examine the impact of including ET‐modified conductances in a case study of the geomagnetic storm of 17 March 2013. Simulations with ET show a 13% reduction in the cross polar cap potential at the beginning of the storm and up to 20% increases in the Pedersen and Hall conductance. These simulation results show better agreement with Defense Meteorological Satellite Program observations, including capturing features of subauroral polarization streams. The field‐aligned current (FAC) patterns show little differences during the peak of storm and agree well with Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) reconstructions. Typically, the simulated FAC densities are stronger and at slightly higher latitudes than shown by AMPERE. The inner magnetospheric pressures derived from Tsyganenko‐Sitnov empirical magnetic field model show that the inclusion of the ET effects increases the peak pressure and brings the results into better agreement with the empirical model.This material is based upon work supported by NASA grants NNX14AI13G, NNX13AF92G, and NNX16AB80G. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. This work used the XSEDE and TACC computational facilities, supported by National Science Foundation grant ACI-1053575. We would like to acknowledge high-performance computing support from Yellowstone (ark:/85065/d7wd3xhc) provided by NCAR's Computational and Information Systems Laboratory, sponsored by the National Science Foundation. We thank the AMPERE team and the AMPERE Science Center for providing the Iridium derived data products. All model output, simulation codes, and analysis routines are being preserved on the NCAR High-Performance Storage System and will be made available upon written request to the lead author of this publication. (NNX14AI13G - NASA; NNX13AF92G - NASA; NNX16AB80G - NASA; National Science Foundation; ACI-1053575 - National Science Foundation

Bayesian solutions to the label switching problem

The label switching problem, the unidentifiability of the permutation of clusters or more generally latent variables, makes interpretation of results computed with MCMC sampling difficult. We introduce a fully Bayesian treatment of the permutations which performs better than alternatives. The method can be used to compute summaries of the posterior samples even for nonparametric Bayesian methods, for which no good solutions exist so far. Although being approximative in this case, the results are very promising. The summaries are intuitively appealing: A summarized cluster is defined as a set of points for which the likelihood of being in the same cluster is maximized

A tetragonal-to-monoclinic phase transition in a ferroelectric perovskite: the structure of PbZr(0.52)Ti(0.48)O3

The perovskite-like ferroelectric system PbZr(1-x)Ti(x)O3 (PZT) has a nearly vertical morphotropic phase boundary (MPB) around x=0.45-0.50. Recent synchrotron x-ray powder diffraction measurements by Noheda et al. [Appl. Phys. Lett. 74, 2059 (1999)] have revealed a new monoclinic phase between the previously-established tetragonal and rhombohedral regions. In the present work we describe a Rietveld analysis of the detailed structure of the tetragonal and monoclinic PZT phases on a sample with x= 0.48 for which the lattice parameters are respectively: at= 4.044 A, ct= 4.138 A, at 325 K, and am= 5.721 A, bm= 5.708 A, cm= 4.138 A, beta= 90.496 deg., at 20K. In the tetragonal phase the shifts of the atoms along the polar [001] direction are similar to those in PbTiO3 but the refinement indicates that there are, in addition, local disordered shifts of the Pb atoms of ~0.2 A perpendicular to the polar axis.. The monoclinic structure can be viewed as a condensation along one of the directions of the local displacements present in the tetragonal phase. It equally well corresponds to a freezing-out of the local displacements along one of the directions recently reported by Corker et al.[J. Phys. Condens. Matter 10, 6251 (1998)] for rhombohedral PZT. The monoclinic structure therefore provides a microscopic picture of the MPB region in which one of the "locally" monoclinic phases in the "average" rhombohedral or tetragonal structures freezes out, and thus represents a bridge between these two phases.Comment: REVTeX, 7 figures. Modifications after referee's suggestion: new figure (figure 5), comments in 2nd para. (Sect.III) and in 2nd & 3rd para. (Sect. IV-a), in the abstract: "...of ~0.2 A perpendicular to the polar axis.

Physical Processes in Star Formation

© 2020 Springer-Verlag. The final publication is available at Springer via https://doi.org/10.1007/s11214-020-00693-8.Star formation is a complex multi-scale phenomenon that is of significant importance for astrophysics in general. Stars and star formation are key pillars in observational astronomy from local star forming regions in the Milky Way up to high-redshift galaxies. From a theoretical perspective, star formation and feedback processes (radiation, winds, and supernovae) play a pivotal role in advancing our understanding of the physical processes at work, both individually and of their interactions. In this review we will give an overview of the main processes that are important for the understanding of star formation. We start with an observationally motivated view on star formation from a global perspective and outline the general paradigm of the life-cycle of molecular clouds, in which star formation is the key process to close the cycle. After that we focus on the thermal and chemical aspects in star forming regions, discuss turbulence and magnetic fields as well as gravitational forces. Finally, we review the most important stellar feedback mechanisms.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Forecasting Australian wheat yields with a weighted rainfall index

Monthly rainfall was correlated with shire wheat yields across the Australian wheat belt and an average correlation coefficient determined for each month. Based on this varying usefulness of rainfall throughout the year, a rainfall index that weights district rainfall over the wheat belt was found strongly to relate to state and national wheat yields. Accuracy of the model was improved by filtering out insignificant and excess rainfall according to the broad scale water holding capacities of regional soils. As one moves clockwise around Australia from the east the soil is less able to store water and truncated winter rainfall is a major problem on poorer soils. Assuming actual rainfall up to the forecast date and average rainfall beyond, hindcasted yields in 1988 and 1989 were within 10% of the final figure 3 months in advance of harvest. A marked trend to early sowing and higher yielding varieties, coupled with increased inputs caused the model to underestimate in 1990, 1991 and 1992. However, at the end of the year model predictions equalled, or were more accurate than official predictions in 4 out of 5 years. Large-area Australian yields appear to be a function of both rainfall amount and distribution, as well as the time of sowing and extent of frost in critical periods

Improved regression calibration

The likelihood for generalized linear models with covariate measurement error cannot in general be expressed in closed form which makes maximum likelihood estimation taxing. A popular alternative is regression calibration which is computationally efficient at the cost of inconsistent estimation. We propose an improved regression calibration approach, a general pseudo maximum likelihood estimation method based on a conveniently decomposed form of the likelihood. It is both consistent and computationally efficient, and produces point estimates and estimated standard errors which are practically identical to those obtained by maximum likelihood. Simulations suggest that improved regression calibration which is easy to implement in standard software, works well in a range of situations