Another Look at Confidence Intervals: Proposal for a More Relevant and Transparent Approach

The behaviors of various confidence/credible interval constructions are explored, particularly in the region of low statistics where methods diverge most. We highlight a number of challenges, such as the treatment of nuisance parameters, and common misconceptions associated with such constructions. An informal survey of the literature suggests that confidence intervals are not always defined in relevant ways and are too often misinterpreted and/or misapplied. This can lead to seemingly paradoxical behaviours and flawed comparisons regarding the relevance of experimental results. We therefore conclude that there is a need for a more pragmatic strategy which recognizes that, while it is critical to objectively convey the information content of the data, there is also a strong desire to derive bounds on models and a natural instinct to interpret things this way. Accordingly, we attempt to put aside philosophical biases in favor of a practical view to propose a more transparent and self-consistent approach that better addresses these issues.Comment: 23 pages, 11 figure

Implications of Cosmological Gamma-Ray Absorption II. Modification of gamma-ray spectra

Bearing on the model for the time-dependent metagalactic radiation field developed in the first paper of this series, we compute the gamma-ray attenuation due to pair production in photon-photon scattering. Emphasis is on the effects of varying the star formation rate and the fraction of UV radiation assumed to escape from the star forming regions, the latter being important mainly for high-redshift sources. Conversely, we investigate how the metagalactic radiation field can be measured from the gamma-ray pair creation cutoff as a function of redshift, the Fazio-Stecker relation. For three observed TeV-blazars (Mkn501, Mkn421, H1426+428) we study the effects of gamma-ray attenuation on their spectra in detail.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, accepted by A&

Very Low-Mass Stellar and Substellar Companions to Solar-Like Stars from MARVELS I: A Low Mass Ratio Stellar Companion to TYC 4110-01037-1 in a 79-day Orbit

TYC 4110-01037-1 has a low-mass stellar companion, whose small mass ratio and short orbital period are atypical amongst solar-like (Teff ~< 6000 K) binary systems. Our analysis of TYC 4110-01037-1 reveals it to be a moderately aged (~<5 Gyr) solar-like star having a mass of 1.07 +/- 0.08 MSun and radius of 0.99 +/- 0.18 RSun. We analyze 32 radial velocity measurements from the SDSS-III MARVELS survey as well as 6 supporting radial velocity measurements from the SARG spectrograph on the 3.6m TNG telescope obtained over a period of ~2 years. The best Keplerian orbital fit parameters were found to have a period of 78.994 +/- 0.012 days, an eccentricity of 0.1095 +/- 0.0023, and a semi-amplitude of 4199 +/- 11 m/s. We determine the minimum companion mass (if sin i = 1) to be 97.7 +/- 5.8 MJup. The system's companion to host star mass ratio, >0.087 +/- 0.003, places it at the lowest end of observed values for short period stellar companions to solar-like (Teff ~< 6000 K) stars. One possible way to create such a system would be if a triple-component stellar multiple broke up into a short period, low q binary during the cluster dispersal phase of its lifetime. A candidate tertiary body has been identified in the system via single-epoch, high contrast imagery. If this object is confirmed to be co-moving, we estimate it would be a dM4 star. We present these results in the context of our larger-scale effort to constrain the statistics of low mass stellar and brown dwarf companions to FGK-type stars via the MARVELS survey.Comment: 22 pages; accepted in A

Searches for TeV counterparts to classical gamma-ray bursts

Intense effort has gone into the observation of optical, radio and X-ray GRB counterparts, either simultaneous to the burst or as quasi-steady remnants. Here we report on a similar study at higher energies of 250 GeV and above using ground-based telescopes. Imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes have achieved great sensitivity and now complement observations by orbiting telescopes such as CGRO. Previous studies of bursts by the Whipple Collaboration (4) combined with recent improvements to the telescope, indicate that sensitivity to a fluence of 6×10−9 erg-cm−26×10−9erg-cm−2 can be achieved. Observations by the Whipple Collaboration of nine BATSE positions, one within 2 minutes of the BATSE burst, using coordinates distributed through BACODINE will be reported. Analysis techniques will be described and an upper limit to the high-energy delayed or extended emission of observed candidates will be calculated. © 1996 American Institute of Physics.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/87365/2/603_1.pd

Modelling the infrared galaxy evolution using a phenomenological approach

To characterise the cosmological evolution of the sources contributing to the infrared extragalactic background, we have developped a phenomenological model that constrains in a simple way the galaxy luminosity function evolution with the redshift, and fits all the existing source counts and redshift distributions, Cosmic Infrared Background intensity and fluctuations observations, from the mid-infrared to the submillimetre range. The model is based on template spectra of starburst and normal galaxies, and on the local infrared luminosity function. Although the Cosmic Infrared Background can be modeled with very different luminosity functions as long as the radiation production with redshift is the right one, the number counts, and the anisotropies of the unresolved background, imply that the luminosity function must change dramatically with redshift, with a rapid evolution of the high-luminosity sources (L>3 10^{11} L_{\odot}) from z=0 to z=1 which then stay rather constant up to redshift 5. The derived evolution of the IR luminosity function may be linked to a bimodal star formation process, one associated with the quiescent and passive phase of the galaxy evolution and one associated with the starburst phase, trigerred by merging and interactions. The latter dominates the infrared and submillimetre ouput energy of the Universe. The model is intended as a convenient tool to plan further observations, as illustrated through predictions for Herschel, Planck and ALMA observations. Our model predictions for given wavelengths, together with some usefull routines, are available for general use.Comment: MNRAS, in pres

Roadmap on biology in time varying environments

Biological organisms experience constantly changing environments, from sudden changes in physiology brought about by feeding, to the regular rising and setting of the Sun, to ecological changes over evolutionary timescales. Living organisms have evolved to thrive in this changing world but the general principles by which organisms shape and are shaped by time varying environments remain elusive. Our understanding is particularly poor in the intermediate regime with no separation of timescales, where the environment changes on the same timescale as the physiological or evolutionary response. Experiments to systematically characterize the response to dynamic environments are challenging since such environments are inherently high dimensional. This roadmap deals with the unique role played by time varying environments in biological phenomena across scales, from physiology to evolution, seeking to emphasize the commonalities and the challenges faced in this emerging area of research

Insights Into the Biogeochemical Cycling of Iron, Nitrate, and Phosphate Across a 5,300 km South Pacific Zonal Section (153°E–150°W)

Iron, phosphate and nitrate are essential nutrients for phytoplankton growth and hence their supply into the surface ocean controls oceanic primary production. Here, we present a GEOTRACES zonal section (GP13; 30-33oS, 153oE-150oW) extending eastwards from Australia to the oligotrophic South Pacific Ocean gyre outlining the concentrations of these key nutrients. Surface dissolved iron concentrations are elevated at >0.4 nmol L-1 near continental Australia (west of 165°E) and decreased eastward to ≤0.2 nmol L-1 (170oW-150oW). The supply of dissolved iron into the upper ocean (<100m) from the atmosphere and vertical diffusivity averaged 11 ±10 nmol m-2 d-1. In the remote South Pacific Ocean (170oW-150oW) atmospherically sourced iron is a significant contributor to the surface dissolved iron pool with average supply contribution of 23 ± 17% (range 3% to 55%). Surface-water nitrate concentrations averaged 5 ±4 nmol L-1 between 170oW and 150oW whilst surface-water phosphate concentrations averaged 58 ±30 nmol L-1. The supply of nitrogen into the upper ocean is primarily from deeper waters (24-1647 μmol m-2 d-1) with atmospheric deposition and nitrogen fixation contributing <1% to the overall flux, in remote South Pacific waters. The deep water N:P ratio averaged 16 ±3 but declined to <1 above the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) indicating a high N:P assimilation ratio by phytoplankton leading to almost quantitative removal of nitrate. The supply stoichiometry for iron and nitrogen relative to phosphate at and above the DCM declines eastward leading to two biogeographical provinces: one with diazotroph production and the other without diazotroph production

ESA Voyage 2050 White Paper: Detecting life outside our solar system with a large high-contrast-imaging mission

In this white paper, we recommend the European Space Agency plays a proactive role in developing a global collaborative effort to construct a large high-contrast imaging space telescope, e.g. as currently under study by NASA. Such a mission will be needed to characterize a sizable sample of temperate Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of nearby Sun-like stars and to search for extraterrestrial biological activity. We provide an overview of relevant European expertise, and advocate ESA to start a technology development program towards detecting life outside the Solar system

Recent developments in the production of liquid fuels via catalytic conversion of microalgae: experiments and simulations

Due to continuing high demand, depletion of non-renewable resources and increasing concerns about climate change, the use of fossil fuel-derived transportation fuels faces relentless challenges both from a world markets and an environmental perspective. The production of renewable transportation fuel from microalgae continues to attract much attention because of its potential for fast growth rates, high oil content, ability to grow in unconventional scenarios, and inherent carbon neutrality. Moreover, the use of microalgae would minimize ‘‘food versus fuel’’ concerns associated with several biomass strategies, as microalgae do not compete with food crops in the food chain. This paper reviews the progress of recent research on the production of transportation fuels via homogeneous and heterogeneous catalytic conversions of microalgae. This review also describes the development of tools that may allow for a more fundamental understanding of catalyst selection and conversion processes using computational modelling. The catalytic conversion reaction pathways that have been investigated are fully discussed based on both experimental and theoretical approaches. Finally, this work makes several projections for the potential of various thermocatalytic pathways to produce alternative transportation fuels from algae, and identifies key areas where the authors feel that computational modelling should be directed to elucidate key information to optimize the process