Whither Poverty in Great Britain and the United States? The Determinants of Changing Poverty and Whether Work Will Work

We provide a comparison of poverty levels in Britain and the US based on a set of common definitions. We then ask what factors û demographic, economic, or policy û account for the observed changes in poverty in the two nations and what role could policy play in reducing poverty? We find that the forces influencing poverty differ between nations and across absolute and relative poverty measures. Demographic and wage change is a dominant force in both nations. Government benefits reduced relative and absolute poverty considerably in Britain over this period but had little impact in the US. However, policy changes may have significantly increased work in the US, particularly among single parents, whereas in Britain they may have had the reverse effect. The UK government has committed itself to reducing child poverty by half over the next 10 years and to its abolition within 20 years. We conclude that any purely work-based strategy, which doesn't tackle demographics and wage dispersion, may not have a dramatic effect on relative poverty.

Physical States at the Tachyonic Vacuum of Open String Field Theory

We illustrate a method for computing the number of physical states of open string theory at the stable tachyonic vacuum in level truncation approximation. The method is based on the analysis of the gauge-fixed open string field theory quadratic action that includes Fadeev-Popov ghost string fields. Computations up to level 9 in the scalar sector are consistent with Sen's conjecture about the absence of physical open string states at the tachyonic vacuum. We also derive a long exact cohomology sequence that relates relative and absolute cohomologies of the BRS operator at the non-perturbative vacuum. We use this exact result in conjunction with our numerical findings to conclude that the higher ghost number non-perturbative BRS cohomologies are non-empty.Comment: 43 pages, 16 eps figures, LaTe

Teenage Unemployment: What is the Problem?

This nontechnical paper was prepared as a background study for the NBER Conference on Youth Joblessness and Employment. Our analysis of data collected in the March 1976 and October 1976 Current Population Surveys leads us to the following conclusions: Unemployment is not a serious problem for the vast majority of teenage boys. Less than 5 percent of teenage boys are out of school, unemployed and looking for full-time work. Many out of school teenagers are neither working nor looking for work and most of these report no desire to work. Virtually all teenagers who are out of work live at hone. Among those who do seek work, unemployment spells tend to be quite short; over half end within one month when these boys find work or stop looking for work. Nevertheless, much of the total amount of unemployment is the result of quite long spells among a small portion of those who experience unemployment during the year. Although nonwhites have considerably higher unemployment rates than whites, the overwhelming majority of the teenage unemployed are white. Approximately half of the difference between the unemployment rates of whites and blacks can be accounted for by demographic and economic differences. There is a small group of teenagers with relatively little schooling for whom unemployment does seen to be a serious and persistent problem. This group suffers most of the teenage unemployment. Although their unemployment rate improves markedly as they move into their twenties, it remains very high relative to the unemp1oynent rate of better educated and more able young men.

The Clinton Legacy for America's Poor

This paper examines the impact of Clinton era social policy changes on the poor. It explores shifts in incentives, behavior, and incomes and discusses the role Clinton did or did not play in influencing the policy mix and the nature of the political debate surrounding poverty. Policy changes included a radical shift in welfare policy, a sizable expansion in supports for low income workers with children, new child support enforcement measures, more restricted support for immigrants, and altered housing policies. Partly as a result of these policies, but also in part due to the strong economy, welfare use plummeted, work rose dramatically among single parents, and poverty was reduced. At the same time, there are indications that some families are doing worse than before and that some working families are not getting health and food benefits to which they are entitled. Significant questions remain about what will happen to poor families in the next recession.

Slipping into and out of Poverty: The Dynamics of Spells

This paper examines the dynamics of poverty. Previous analyses of the dynamics of poverty have either examined only fluctuations in the male heads earnings or looked at the frequency of poverty periods over a fixed time frame. We argue that a more appropriate way to understand the dynamics of poverty is to define spells of poverty. Using this methodology we find that the majority of poor persons at any point in time are in fact in the midst of a rather long spell of poverty. The methodology also allows us to estimate the extent to which poverty spell beginnings and endings are associated with changes in income or changes in family structure. Less than 40 percent of poverty spell beginnings seem to be caused by a drop in the heads earnings,while 60 percent of endings occur when the head's earnings increase. As a result we argue that to understand the causes and potential remedies for poverty, researchers must focus on household formation decisions and on the behavior of so called secondary family members.