BINCOR: An r package for estimating the correlation between two unevenly spaced time series

This paper presents a computational program named BINCOR (BINned CORrelation) for estimating the correlation between two unevenly spaced time series. This program is also applicable to the situation of two evenly spaced time series not on the same time grid. BINCOR is based on a novel estimation approach proposed by Mudelsee (2010) for estimating the correlation between two climate time series with different timescales. The idea is that autocorrelation (e.g. an AR1 process) means that memory enables values obtained on different time points to be correlated. Binned correlation is performed by resampling the time series under study into time bins on a regular grid, assigning the mean values of the variable under scrutiny within those bins. We present two examples of our BINCOR package with real data: instrumental and paleoclimatic time series. In both applications BINCOR works properly in detecting well-established relationships between the climate records compared. © Technische Universitaet Wien

Increased aridity in southwestern Africa during the warmest periods of the last interglacial

Open access journalTerrestrial and marine climatic tracers from marine core MD96-2098 were used to reconstruct glacial-interglacial climate variability in southwestern Africa between 194 and 24 thousand years before present. The pollen record documented three pronounced expansions of Nama-Karoo and fine-leaved savanna during the last interglacial (Marine Isotopic Stage 5 – MIS 5). These Nama-Karoo and fine-leaved savanna expansions were linked to increased aridity during the three warmest substadials of MIS 5. Enhanced aridity potentially resulted from a combination of reduced Benguela Upwelling , expanded subtropical high-pressure cells, and reduced austral-summer precipitation due to a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Decreased austral-winter precipitation was likely linked to a southern displacement of the westerlies. In contrast, during glacial isotopic stages MIS 6, 4 and 3, Fynbos expanded at the expense of Nama-Karoo and fine-leaved savanna indicating a relative increase in precipitation probably concentrated during the austral winter months. Our record also suggested that warm-cold or cold-warm transitions between isotopic stages and substages were punctuated by short increases in humidity. Increased aridity during MIS 5e, 5c and 5a warm substages coincided with minima in both precessional index and global ice volume. On the other hand, austral-winter precipitation increases were associated with precession maxima at the time of well-developed northern-hemisphere ice caps.European Research Counci

Holocene land-sea climatic links on the equatorial Pacific coast (Bay of Guayaquil, Ecuador)

Copyright © 2015 SAGE PublicationsWe analyzed the pollen content of a marine core located near the bay of Guayaquil in Ecuador to document the link between sea surface temperatures (SST) and changes in rainfall regimes on the adjacent continent during the Holocene. Based on the expansion/regression of five vegetation types, we observe three successive climatic patterns. In the first phase, between 11,700 and 7700 cal yr BP, the presence of a cloud (Andean) forest in the mid altitudes and mangroves in the estuary of the Guayas Basin, were associated with a maximum in boreal summer insolation, a northernmost position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), a land- sea thermal contrast, and dryness. Between 7700 and 2850 cal yr BP, the expansion of the coastal herbs and the regression of the mangrove indicate a drier climate with weak ITCZ and low ENSO variability while austral winter insolation gradually increased. The interval between 4200 and 2850 cal yr BP was marked by the coolest and driest climatic conditions of the Holocene due to the weak influence of the ITCZ and a strengthening of the Humboldt Current. After 2850 cal yr BP, high variability and amplitude of the Andean forest changes occurred when ENSO frequency and amplitude increased, indicating high variability in land-sea connections. The ITCZ reached the latitude of Guayaquil only after 2500 cal yr BP inducing the bimodal precipitation regime we observe today. Our study shows that besides insolation, the ITCZ position and ENSO frequency, changes in eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs play a major role in determining the composition of the ecosystems and the hydrological cycle of the Ecuadorian Pacific coast and the Western Cordillera in Ecuador.Deutsche ForschungsgemeinschaftFrench Research Agenc

Impact of precession on the climate, vegetation and fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4

Open access journalhe relationships between climate, vegetation and fires are a major subject of investigation in the context of climate change. In southern Africa, fire is known to play a crucial role in the existence of grasslands and Mediterranean-type biomes. Microcharcoal-based reconstructions of past fire activity in that region have shown a tight correlation between grass-fueled fires and the precessional cycle, with maximum fire activity during maxima of the climatic precession index. These changes have been interpreted as the result of changes in fuel load in response to precipitation changes in eastern southern Africa. Here we use the general circulation model IPSL_CM5A (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Model version 5A) and the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-LMfire to investigate the response of climate, vegetation and fire activity to precession changes in southern Africa during marine isotopic stage 4 (74–59 kyr BP). We perform two climatic simulations, for a maximum and minimum of the precession index, and use a statistical downscaling method to increase the spatial resolution of the IPSL_CM5A outputs over southern Africa and perform high-resolution simulations of the vegetation and fire activity. Our results show an anticorrelation between the northern and southern African monsoons in response to precession changes. A decrease of the precession climatic index leads to a precipitation decrease in the summer rainfall area of southern Africa. The drying of climate leads to a decrease of vegetation cover and fire activity. Our results are in qualitative agreement with data and confirm that fire activity in southern Africa during MIS4 is mainly driven by vegetation cover.European Research Counci

Combination of searches for Higgs boson pairs in pp collisions at \sqrts = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This letter presents a combination of searches for Higgs boson pair production using up to 36.1 fb(-1) of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy root s = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The combination is performed using six analyses searching for Higgs boson pairs decaying into the b (b) over barb (b) over bar, b (b) over barW(+)W(-), b (b) over bar tau(+)tau(-), W+W-W+W-, b (b) over bar gamma gamma and W+W-gamma gamma final states. Results are presented for non-resonant and resonant Higgs boson pair production modes. No statistically significant excess in data above the Standard Model predictions is found. The combined observed (expected) limit at 95% confidence level on the non-resonant Higgs boson pair production cross-section is 6.9 (10) times the predicted Standard Model cross-section. Limits are also set on the ratio (kappa(lambda)) of the Higgs boson self-coupling to its Standard Model value. This ratio is constrained at 95% confidence level in observation (expectation) to -5.0 &lt; kappa(lambda) &lt; 12.0 (-5.8 &lt; kappa(lambda) &lt; 12.0). In addition, limits are set on the production of narrow scalar resonances and spin-2 Kaluza-Klein Randall-Sundrum gravitons. Exclusion regions are also provided in the parameter space of the habemus Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and the Electroweak Singlet Model. For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physletb.2019.135103</p

Searches for lepton-flavour-violating decays of the Higgs boson in s=13\sqrt{s}=13 TeV pp\mathit{pp} collisions with the ATLAS detector

This Letter presents direct searches for lepton flavour violation in Higgs boson decays, H → eτ and H → μτ , performed with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The searches are based on a data sample of proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy √s = 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1. No significant excess is observed above the expected background from Standard Model processes. The observed (median expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits on the leptonflavour-violating branching ratios are 0.47% (0.34+0.13−0.10%) and 0.28% (0.37+0.14−0.10%) for H → eτ and H → μτ , respectively.publishedVersio

Comparison between simulated and observed LHC beam backgrounds in the ATLAS experiment at Ebeam =4 TeV

Results of dedicated Monte Carlo simulations of beam-induced background (BIB) in the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are presented and compared with data recorded in 2012. During normal physics operation this background arises mainly from scattering of the 4 TeV protons on residual gas in the beam pipe. Methods of reconstructing the BIB signals in the ATLAS detector, developed and implemented in the simulation chain based on the \textscFluka Monte Carlo simulation package, are described. The interaction rates are determined from the residual gas pressure distribution in the LHC ring in order to set an absolute scale on the predicted rates of BIB so that they can be compared quantitatively with data. Through these comparisons the origins of the BIB leading to different observables in the ATLAS detectors are analysed. The level of agreement between simulation results and BIB measurements by ATLAS in 2012 demonstrates that a good understanding of the origin of BIB has been reached

Search for flavour-changing neutral currents in processes with one top quark and a photon using 81 fb⁻¹ of pp collisions at \sqrts = 13 TeV with the ATLAS experiment

A search for flavour-changing neutral current (FCNC) events via the coupling of a top quark, a photon, and an up or charm quark is presented using 81 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data taken at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events with a photon, an electron or muon, a b-tagged jet, and missing transverse momentum are selected. A neural network based on kinematic variables differentiates between events from signal and background processes. The data are consistent with the background-only hypothesis, and limits are set on the strength of the tqγ coupling in an effective field theory. These are also interpreted as 95% CL upper limits on the cross section for FCNC tγ production via a left-handed (right-handed) tuγ coupling of 36 fb (78 fb) and on the branching ratio for t→γu of 2.8×10−5 (6.1×10−5). In addition, they are interpreted as 95% CL upper limits on the cross section for FCNC tγ production via a left-handed (right-handed) tcγ coupling of 40 fb (33 fb) and on the branching ratio for t→γc of 22×10−5 (18×10−5). © 2019 The Author(s

Prompt and non-prompt J/psi elliptic flow in Pb plus Pb collisions at root S-NN=5.02 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The elliptic flow of prompt and non-prompt J/ \u3c8 was measured in the dimuon decay channel in Pb+Pb collisions at sNN=5.02&nbsp;TeV with an integrated luminosity of 0.42nb-1 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The prompt and non-prompt signals are separated using a two-dimensional simultaneous fit of the invariant mass and pseudo-proper decay time of the dimuon system from the J/ \u3c8 decay. The measurement is performed in the kinematic range of dimuon transverse momentum and rapidity 9 &lt; pT&lt; 30 GeV , | y| &lt; 2 , and 0\u201360% collision centrality. The elliptic flow coefficient, v2, is evaluated relative to the event plane and the results are presented as a function of transverse momentum, rapidity and centrality. It is found that prompt and non-prompt J/ \u3c8 mesons have non-zero elliptic flow. Prompt J/ \u3c8v2 decreases as a function of pT, while for non-prompt J/ \u3c8 it is, with limited statistical significance, consistent with a flat behaviour over the studied kinematic region. There is no observed dependence on rapidity or centrality

Search for squarks and gluinos in final states with hadronically decaying tau-leptons, jets, and missing transverse momentum using pp collisions at root s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets, and at least one hadronically decaying τ-lepton is presented. Two exclusive final states with either exactly one or at least two τ-leptons are considered. The analysis is based on proton-proton collisions at √s=13  TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1  fb⁻¹ delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess is observed over the Standard Model expectation. At 95% confidence level, model-independent upper limits on the cross section are set and exclusion limits are provided for two signal scenarios: a simplified model of gluino pair production with τ-rich cascade decays, and a model with gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking (GMSB). In the simplified model, gluino masses up to 2000 GeV are excluded for low values of the mass of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP), while LSP masses up to 1000 GeV are excluded for gluino masses around 1400 GeV. In the GMSB model, values of the supersymmetry-breaking scale are excluded below 110 TeV for all values of tanβ in the range 2 ≤ tanβ ≤ 60, and below 120 TeV for tanβ > 30.M. Aaboud … D. Duvnjak … P. Jackson … J.L. Oliver … A. Petridis … A. Qureshi … A.S. Sharma … M.J. White … et al. [The ATLAS Collaboration