Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Aspectos epidemiológicos e imunitários da poliomielite em crianças menores de um ano em área da região da Grande São Paulo, Brasil Some aspects of epidemiological relevance of the behavior of poliomyelitis in children of less than one year of age in an area of Greater S. Paulo, Brazil

Foram estudadas algumas características, de interesse epidemiológico, do comportamento da poliomielite na Região da Grande São Paulo, Brasil, salientando a importância da sua ocorrência em menores de um ano. Foram analisados os resultados de um inquérito sorológico, por provas de neutralização, em gestantes atendidas em Centros de Saúde de 16 Distritos Sanitários dessa Região. Com base nessas observações, foi dado destaque para determinadas condições que propiciam a infecção por poliovírus muito precoce, das crianças da área em estudo. Foi proposta a imunização, com a vacina Salk, das gestantes nos 5º e 6º meses de gravidez ou a imunização das crianças, com vacina oral trivalente tipo Sabin, em período anterior aos dois meses de idade, ou seja, em torno do terceiro dia de vida, mas sem prejuízo da aplicação, em seguida, do esquema básico de imunização preconizada pelo Calendário de Vacinação oficial em vigor. Tais medidas visam à eliminação de possível lacuna imunitária na faixa etária de menores de um ano.<br>Some characteristics of epidemiological relevance of the behavior of poliomyelitis in some Health Districts of Greater S. Paulo were studied, special emphasis being put on its occurrence in children of less than one year of agre. Next, the results of serological investigation, performed by means of neutralization tests, on pregnant women attended by Health Centers in sixteen Health Districts of Greater S. Paulo were analysed. Based on these observations the authors draw attention to certain conditions poliovirus infection in children. The immunization of pregnant women with Salk vaccine, during the fifth and sixth months of pregnancy, or, alternatively, the immunization of children with oral trivalent Sabin-type vaccine in the period before the age of two months, possibly about the third day after birth, is proposed; without, however, any change in the normal later application of the basic immunization project recommended by the official Vaccination Calendar. Such steps would aim at the elimination of conceivable immunity lacunas in children of less than one year of age

Costing human rights and community support interventions as a part of universal access to HIV treatment and care in a Southern African Setting

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Imunidade relativa à poliomielite em crianças de zero a dez anos, após o "Quarto Dia Nacional de Vacinação Contra a Poliomielite" com a vacinação oral trivalente, tipo Sabin, em área da Região da Grande São Paulo, SP (Brasil), 1982 Relative immunity to poliomyelitis in children up to ten years of age, after the "4th National Antipoliomyelitis Vaccination Day" with trivalent oral Sabin vaccine, in Greater S. Paulo (Brazil), 1982

Efetuou-se um levantamento soro-epidemiológico, abrangendo 898 crianças, para a verificação da imunidade aos poliovírus 1, 2 e 3 por meio da determinação dos títulos de anticorpos neutralizantes. De 522 crianças, ou seja, de 58,1% da população estudada, foi possível a obtenção de informações referentes à situação vacinal a partir de anotações existentes nas próprias Cadernetas de Vacinação. Neste último sub-grupo foi estudado o estado imunitário em relação ao número de doses de vacina oral tipo Sabin recebidas. Os resultados mostraram alta proporção de imunes para os três tipos de poliovírus entre as crianças estudadas, porém também revelaram a existência de lacuna imunitária nos menores de um ano, especialmente no primeiro semestre de vida. Não foram observadas diferenças importantes na proporção de imunes segundo o sorotipo considerado. Salientou-se a necessidade de um alerta constante e permanente em relação à ocorrência de possíveis surtos epidêmicos em segmentos mais vulneráveis da população, particularmente entre crianças menores de 1 ano.<br>An epidemiological analysis was carried out on 898 children, in order to study the immune response to polioviruses 1, 2 and 3 by means of the measurement of neutralising antibodies. Information was obtained from 522 (58.1%) of the children with regard to their vaccinal position by examination of the observations recorded on the individual vaccination certificates. In this subgroup the immune status in relation to number of Sabin type oral vaccine doses was analysed. The analysis demonstrated a high proportion of protected children for three types of polivirus, but also an immune response failure among the children of less than one year old, mainly during the first semester after birth. There were no relevant differences in relation to the proportion of protected individuals according to the considered serotype. The need for persistent and continuous vigilance in view of the possible occurence of epidemic outbreaks in high risk segments of the population, principally among children under one year of age was emphasized

Response to combination antiretroviral therapy : variation by age - The Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (COHERE) Study Group

Objective: To provide information on responses to combination antiretroviral therapy in children, adolescents and older HIV-infected persons. Design and setting: Multicohort collaboration of 33 European cohorts. Subjects: Forty-nine thousand nine hundred and twenty-one anti retroviral-naive individuals starting combination antiretroviral therapy from 1998 to 2006. Outcome measures: Time from combination antiretroviral therapy initiation to HIV RNA less than 50copies/ml (virological response), CD4 increase of more than 100cells/mu l (immunological response) and new AIDS/death were analysed using survival methods. Ten age strata were chosen: less than 2, 2-5, 6-12, 13-17, 18-29, 30-39 (reference group), 40-49, 50-54, 55-59 and 60 years or older; those aged 6 years or more were included in multivariable analyses. Results: The four youngest age groups had 223, 184, 219 and 201 individuals and the three oldest age groups had 2693, 1656 and 1613 individuals. Precombination antiretroviral therapy CD4 cell counts were highest in young children and declined with age. By 12 months, 53.7% (95% confidence interval: 53.2-54.1%) and 59.2% (58.7-59.6%) had experienced a virological and immunological response. The probability of virological response was lower in those aged 6-12 (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.87) and 13-17 (0.78) years, but was higher in those aged 50-54 (1.24), 55-59 (1.24) and at least 60 (1.18) years. The probability of immunological response was higher in children and younger adults and reduced in those 60 years or older. Those aged 55-59 and 60 years or older had poorer clinical outcomes after adjusting for the latest CD4 cell count. Conclusion: Better virological responses but poorer immunological responses in older individuals, together with low precombination antiretroviral therapy CD4 cell counts, may place this group at increased clinical risk. The poorer virological responses in children may increase the likelihood of emergence of resistance. (C) 2008 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins