The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts

This is the final version of the article. Available from Wiley via the DOI in this record.Extreme variability of the winter- and spring-time stratospheric polar vortex has been shown to affect extratropical tropospheric weather. Therefore, reducing stratospheric forecast error may be one way to improve the skill of tropospheric weather forecasts. In this review, the basis for this idea is examined. A range of studies of different stratospheric extreme vortex events shows that they can be skilfully forecasted beyond 5 days and into the sub-seasonal range (0–30 days) in some cases. Separate studies show that typical errors in forecasting a stratospheric extreme vortex event can alter tropospheric forecast skill by 5–7% in the extratropics on sub-seasonal time-scales. Thus understanding what limits stratospheric predictability is of significant interest to operational forecasting centres. Both limitations in forecasting tropospheric planetary waves and stratospheric model biases have been shown to be important in this context.This work is supported by the Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) funded project Stratospheric Network for the Assessment of Predictability (SNAP) (Grant H5147600) and partially supported by the SPARC. ACP and RGH acknowledge funding through the EU ARISE project (Grant 284387) (EU-FP7). We also acknowledge Steven Pawson and Lawrence Coy from NASA for providing Figure 1. We wish to thank Lorenzo Polvani from Columbia University for providing Figure 4 and Amy Butler from NOAA for her contribution to Figure 5. We thank Adrian Simmons of ECMWF for his insightful review and two anonymous reviewers for their comments and suggestions that improved the quality of the manuscript

Beryllium increases the CD14^dimCD16+ subset in the lung of chronic beryllium disease

CD14dimCD16+ and CD14brightCD16+ cells, which compose a minor population of monocytes in human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), have been implicated in several inflammatory diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate whether this phenotype was present as a subset of lung infiltrative alveolar macrophages (AMs) in the granulomatous lung disease, chronic beryllium disease (CBD). The monocytes subsets was determined from PBMC cells and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cells from CBD, beryllium sensitized Non-smoker (BeS-NS) and healthy subjects (HS) using flow cytometry. The impact of smoking on the AMs cell phenotype was determined by using BAL cells from BeS smokers (BeS-S). In comparison with the other monocyte subpopulations, CD14dimCD16+ cells were at decreased frequency in PBMCs of both BeS-NS and CBD and showed higher HLA-DR expression, compared to HS. The AMs from CBD and BeS-NS demonstrated a CD14dimCD16+phenotype, while CD14brightCD16+ cells were found at increased frequency in AMs of BeS, compared to HS. Fresh AMs from BeS-NS and CBD demonstrated significantly greater CD16, CD40, CD86 and HLA-DR than HS and BeS-S. The expression of CD16 on AMs from both CBD and BeS-NS was downregulated significantly after 10μM BeSO4 stimulation. The phagocytic activity of AMs decreased after 10μM BeSO4 treatment in both BeS-NS and CBD, although was altered or reduced in HS and BeS-S. These results suggest that Be increases the CD14dimCD16+ subsets in the lung of CBD subjects. We speculate that Be-stimulates the compartmentalization of a more mature CD16+ macrophage phenotype and that in turn these macrophages are a source of Th1 cytokines and chemokines that perpetuate the Be immune response in CBD. The protective effect of cigarette smoking in BeS-S may be due to the low expression of co-stimulatory markers on AMs from smokers as well as the decreased phagocytic function

Comparison of the Gene Expression Profiles from Normal and Fgfrl1 Deficient Mouse Kidneys Reveals Downstream Targets of Fgfrl1 Signaling

Fgfrl1 (fibroblast growth factor receptor-like 1) is a transmembrane receptor that is essential for the development of the metanephric kidney. It is expressed in all nascent nephrogenic structures and in the ureteric bud. Fgfrl1 null mice fail to develop the metanephric kidneys. Mutant kidney rudiments show a dramatic reduction of ureteric branching and a lack of mesenchymal-to-epithelial transition. Here, we compared the expression profiles of wildtype and Fgfrl1 mutant kidneys to identify genes that act downstream of Fgfrl1 signaling during the early steps of nephron formation. We detected 56 differentially expressed transcripts with 2-fold or greater reduction, among them many genes involved in Fgf, Wnt, Bmp, Notch, and Six/Eya/Dach signaling. We validated the microarray data by qPCR and whole-mount in situ hybridization and showed the expression pattern of candidate genes in normal kidneys. Some of these genes might play an important role during early nephron formation. Our study should help to define the minimal set of genes that is required to form a functional nephron

Evaluation of a manualised speech and language therapy programme for children with social communication disorder: the SCIP feasibility study

Background: Children with Social (Pragmatic) Communication Disorder (SPCD) have long-3 term needs in using and processing social language and have a high risk of later mental health difficulties. A manualised speech and language therapy programme, the Social Communication Intervention Programme (SCIP) provides therapy content for SPCD. A feasibility study is required to derive more precise estimates of key parameters for a future trial of SCIP. Aims: To assess the feasibility of conducting a substantive randomized controlled trial of SCIP for children with SPCD. Methods: A questionnaire was distributed to paediatric speech and language therapists in England. Survey questions addressed number of eligible children, routine intervention provision and trial recruitment factors. In the second phase, a single-arm intervention feasibility study was completed. 15 speech and language practitioners identified 24 children aged 5-11 years with SPCD. Practitioners received training/supervision to deliver 20 SCIP therapy sessions to each child. At Time 1 parents of participating children provided three communication goals; expected steps in each goal were defined. After intervention, parents and practitioners independently rated each goal compared to baseline ability. Two research practitioners compared parent post-intervention commentaries with outcome scores to derive guidance about clinical significance. All practitioners recorded audio commentaries on therapy experiences. Post-intervention interviews were conducted with 6 practitioners and 6 parents. An expert panel completed a Delphi consultation on trial design. Results: Routine practice for SPCD varies widely. Children tend to be embedded in autism provision. Participation in a future trial was well-supported, provided resources are available to services. Outcomes analysis indicated all children except one made some progress on parent ratings; all children made progress on practitioner ratings. A power analysis for a future trial was carried out using current outcome measure as putative primary endpoint. Practitioners’ audio-diaries provided suggestions for training and adaption in a future trial. Outcomes and therapy methods were acceptable to practitioners and parents. Conclusions: The feasibility study evaluated a novel outcome measure of social communication skills in SPCD. A power calculation indicated a feasible framework for a trial within a realistic period of time. Recommendations for recruitment methods, adaptation of manual and training were 6 supported by practitioners and an expert panel

Illegal immigration and media exposure: evidence on individual attitudes

Illegal immigration has been the focus of much debate in receiving countries, but little is known about the drivers of individual attitudes towards illegal immigrants. To study this question, we use the CCES survey, which was carried out in 2006 in the USA. We find evidence that—in addition to standard labor market and welfare state considerations—media exposure is significantly correlated with public opinion on illegal immigration. Controlling for education, income, ideology, and other socio-demographic characteristics, individuals watching Fox News are 9 percentage points more likely than CBS viewers to oppose the legalization of undocumented immigrants. We find an effect of the same size and direction for CNN viewers, whereas individuals watching PBS are instead more likely to support legalization. Ideological self-selection into different news programs plays an important role, but cannot entirely explain the correlation between media exposure and attitudes about illegal immigration

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Performance of CMS muon reconstruction in pp collision events at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

The performance of muon reconstruction, identification, and triggering in CMS has been studied using 40 inverse picobarns of data collected in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV at the LHC in 2010. A few benchmark sets of selection criteria covering a wide range of physics analysis needs have been examined. For all considered selections, the efficiency to reconstruct and identify a muon with a transverse momentum pT larger than a few GeV is above 95% over the whole region of pseudorapidity covered by the CMS muon system, abs(eta) < 2.4, while the probability to misidentify a hadron as a muon is well below 1%. The efficiency to trigger on single muons with pT above a few GeV is higher than 90% over the full eta range, and typically substantially better. The overall momentum scale is measured to a precision of 0.2% with muons from Z decays. The transverse momentum resolution varies from 1% to 6% depending on pseudorapidity for muons with pT below 100 GeV and, using cosmic rays, it is shown to be better than 10% in the central region up to pT = 1 TeV. Observed distributions of all quantities are well reproduced by the Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Search for anomalous t t-bar production in the highly-boosted all-hadronic final state

A search is presented for a massive particle, generically referred to as a Z', decaying into a t t-bar pair. The search focuses on Z' resonances that are sufficiently massive to produce highly Lorentz-boosted top quarks, which yield collimated decay products that are partially or fully merged into single jets. The analysis uses new methods to analyze jet substructure, providing suppression of the non-top multijet backgrounds. The analysis is based on a data sample of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 inverse femtobarns. Upper limits in the range of 1 pb are set on the product of the production cross section and branching fraction for a topcolor Z' modeled for several widths, as well as for a Randall--Sundrum Kaluza--Klein gluon. In addition, the results constrain any enhancement in t t-bar production beyond expectations of the standard model for t t-bar invariant masses larger than 1 TeV.Comment: Submitted to the Journal of High Energy Physics; this version includes a minor typo correction that will be submitted as an erratu

X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources

We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30 kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101 sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres