The limit fold change model: A practical approach for selecting differentially expressed genes from microarray data

BACKGROUND: The biomedical community is developing new methods of data analysis to more efficiently process the massive data sets produced by microarray experiments. Systematic and global mathematical approaches that can be readily applied to a large number of experimental designs become fundamental to correctly handle the otherwise overwhelming data sets. RESULTS: The gene selection model presented herein is based on the observation that: (1) variance of gene expression is a function of absolute expression; (2) one can model this relationship in order to set an appropriate lower fold change limit of significance; and (3) this relationship defines a function that can be used to select differentially expressed genes. The model first evaluates fold change (FC) across the entire range of absolute expression levels for any number of experimental conditions. Genes are systematically binned, and those genes within the top X% of highest FCs for each bin are evaluated both with and without the use of replicates. A function is fitted through the top X% of each bin, thereby defining a limit fold change. All genes selected by the 5% FC model lie above measurement variability using a within standard deviation (SD(within)) confidence level of 99.9%. Real time-PCR (RT-PCR) analysis demonstrated 85.7% concordance with microarray data selected by the limit function. CONCLUSION: The FC model can confidently select differentially expressed genes as corroborated by variance data and RT-PCR. The simplicity of the overall process permits selecting model limits that best describe experimental data by extracting information on gene expression patterns across the range of expression levels. Genes selected by this process can be consistently compared between experiments and enables the user to globally extract information with a high degree of confidence

Effect of dietary phytic acid on zinc absorption in the healthy elderly, as assessed by serum concentration curve tests

Zn absorption was investigated in healthy elderly subjects aged 71-78 years and in young subjects aged 23-43 years using serum concentration curve (SCC) tests. Both groups had similar Zn and protein status. The increase in serum Zn was monitored for 180 min after ingestion of 200ml of soya milk enriched with 50mg of Zn. Three levels of phytic acid were used: 0g/200ml (totally dephytinized soya milk), 0.13 g/200ml (half dephytinized), and 0.26 g/200ml (natural phytic acid content). In a first study the effect of 0 v. 0.26 g/200 ml phytic acid was compared in 10 elderly and 10 young subjects, each subject receiving both treatments. In a second study soya milks with 0 and 0.13 g/200ml were tested in nine elderly and ten young subjects, again receiving both treatments. Mean areas under the curve of the SCC tests conducted with the 0 g/200 ml soya milk were found to be the same in both studies. Phytic acid strongly depressed Zn absorption in both studies (P ≤ 0.05), but to a greater extent at the 0.26 g/200ml level. No difference was found between the groups of young and elderly subjects. Therefore, no significant effect of aging on Zn absorption, as evaluated by the SCC test, or on the inhibitory effect of phytic acid was detecte

Changes in the transcriptional profile of transporters in the intestine along the anterior-posterior and crypt-villus axes

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this work was to characterize the expression of drug and nutrient carriers along the anterior-posterior and crypt-villus axes of the intestinal epithelium and to study the validity of utilizing whole gut tissue rather than purified epithelial cells to examine regional variations in gene expression. RESULTS: We have characterized the mRNA expression profiles of 76 % of all currently known transporters along the anterior-posterior axis of the gut. This is the first study to describe the expression profiles of the majority of all known transporters in the intestine. The expression profiles of transporters, as defined according to the Gene Ontology consortium, were measured in whole tissue of the murine duodenum, jejunum, ileum and colon using high-density microarrays. For nine transporters (Abca1, Abcc1, Abcc3, Abcg8, Slc10a2, Slc28a2, Slc2a1, Slc34a2 and Slc5a8), the mRNA profiles were further measured by RT-PCR in laser micro-dissected crypt and villus epithelial cells corresponding to the aforementioned intestinal regions. With respect to differentially regulated transporters, the colon had a distinct expression profile from small intestinal segments. The majority (59 % for p cutoff ≤ 0.05) of transporter mRNA levels were constant across the intestinal sections studied. For the transporter subclass "carrier activity", which contains the majority of known carriers for biologically active compounds, a significant change (p ≤ 0.05) along the anterior-posterior axis was observed. CONCLUSION: All nine transporters examined in laser-dissected material demonstrated good replication of the region-specific profiles revealed by microarray. Furthermore, we suggest that the distribution characteristics of Slc5a8 along the intestinal tract render it a suitable candidate carrier for monocarboxylate drugs in the posterior portion of the intestine. Our findings also predict that there is a significant difference in the absorption of carrier-mediated compounds in the different intestinal segments. The most pronounced differences can be expected between the adjoining segments ileum and colon, but the differences between the other adjoining segments are not negligible. Finally, for the examined genes, profiles measured in whole intestinal tissue extracts are representative of epithelial cell-only gene expression

Effects of increase in fish oil intake on intestinal eicosanoids and inflammation in a mouse model of colitis

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are chronic intestinal inflammatory diseases affecting about 1% of western populations. New eating behaviors might contribute to the global emergence of IBD. Although the immunoregulatory effects of omega-3 fatty acids have been well characterized in vitro, their role in IBD is controversial. METHODS: The aim of this study was to assess the impact of increased fish oil intake on colonic gene expression, eicosanoid metabolism and development of colitis in a mouse model of IBD. Rag-2 deficient mice were fed fish oil (FO) enriched in omega-3 fatty acids i.e. EPA and DHA or control diet for 4 weeks before colitis induction by adoptive transfer of naïve T cells and maintained in the same diet for 4 additional weeks. Onset of colitis was monitored by colonoscopy and further confirmed by immunological examinations. Whole genome expression profiling was made and eicosanoids were measured by HPLC-MS/MS in colonic samples. RESULTS: A significant reduction of colonic proinflammatory eicosanoids in FO fed mice compared to control was observed. However, neither alteration of colonic gene expression signature nor reduction in IBD scores was observed under FO diet. CONCLUSION: Thus, increased intake of dietary FO did not prevent experimental colitis

Consequences of Exchanging Carbohydrates for Proteins in the Cholesterol Metabolism of Mice Fed a High-fat Diet

Consumption of low-carbohydrate, high-protein, high-fat diets lead to rapid weight loss but the cardioprotective effects of these diets have been questioned. We examined the impact of high-protein and high-fat diets on cholesterol metabolism by comparing the plasma cholesterol and the expression of cholesterol biosynthesis genes in the liver of mice fed a high-fat (HF) diet that has a high (H) or a low (L) protein-to-carbohydrate (P/C) ratio. H-P/C-HF feeding, compared with L-P/C-HF feeding, decreased plasma total cholesterol and increased HDL cholesterol concentrations at 4-wk. Interestingly, the expression of genes involved in hepatic steroid biosynthesis responded to an increased dietary P/C ratio by first down-regulation (2-d) followed by later up-regulation at 4-wk, and the temporal gene expression patterns were connected to the putative activity of SREBF1 and 2. In contrast, Cyp7a1, the gene responsible for the conversion of cholesterol to bile acids, was consistently up-regulated in the H-P/C-HF liver regardless of feeding duration. Over expression of Cyp7a1 after 2-d and 4-wk H-P/C-HF feeding was connected to two unique sets of transcription regulators. At both time points, up-regulation of the Cyp7a1 gene could be explained by enhanced activations and reduced suppressions of multiple transcription regulators. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the hypocholesterolemic effect of H-P/C-HF feeding coincided with orchestrated changes of gene expressions in lipid metabolic pathways in the liver of mice. Based on these results, we hypothesize that the cholesterol lowering effect of high-protein feeding is associated with enhanced bile acid production but clinical validation is warranted. (246 words

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Effect of dietary phytic acid on zinc absorption in the healthy elderly, as assessed by serum concentration curve tests

Zn absorption was investigated in healthy elderly subjects aged 71-78 years and in young subjects aged 23-43 years using serum concentration curve (SCC) tests. Both groups had similar Zn and protein status. The increase in serum Zn was monitored for 180 min after ingestion of 200ml of soya milk enriched with 50mg of Zn. Three levels of phytic acid were used: 0g/200ml (totally dephytinized soya milk), 0.13 g/200ml (half dephytinized), and 0.26 g/200ml (natural phytic acid content). In a first study the effect of 0 v. 0.26 g/200 ml phytic acid was compared in 10 elderly and 10 young subjects, each subject receiving both treatments. In a second study soya milks with 0 and 0.13 g/200ml were tested in nine elderly and ten young subjects, again receiving both treatments. Mean areas under the curve of the SCC tests conducted with the 0 g/200 ml soya milk were found to be the same in both studies. Phytic acid strongly depressed Zn absorption in both studies (P ≤ 0.05), but to a greater extent at the 0.26 g/200ml level. No difference was found between the groups of young and elderly subjects. Therefore, no significant effect of aging on Zn absorption, as evaluated by the SCC test, or on the inhibitory effect of phytic acid was detecte