Detection of variable VHE gamma-ray emission from the extra-galactic gamma-ray binary LMC P3

Context. Recently, the high-energy (HE, 0.1-100 GeV) $\gamma$-ray emission from the object LMC P3 in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) has been discovered to be modulated with a 10.3-day period, making it the first extra-galactic $\gamma$-ray binary. Aims. This work aims at the detection of very-high-energy (VHE, >100 GeV) $\gamma$-ray emission and the search for modulation of the VHE signal with the orbital period of the binary system. Methods. LMC P3 has been observed with the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.); the acceptance-corrected exposure time is 100 h. The data set has been folded with the known orbital period of the system in order to test for variability of the emission. Energy spectra are obtained for the orbit-averaged data set, and for the orbital phase bin around the VHE maximum. Results. VHE $\gamma$-ray emission is detected with a statistical significance of 6.4 $\sigma$. The data clearly show variability which is phase-locked to the orbital period of the system. Periodicity cannot be deduced from the H.E.S.S. data set alone. The orbit-averaged luminosity in the $1-10$ TeV energy range is $(1.4 \pm 0.2) \times 10^{35}$ erg/s. A luminosity of $(5 \pm 1) \times 10^{35}$ erg/s is reached during 20% of the orbit. HE and VHE $\gamma$-ray emissions are anti-correlated. LMC P3 is the most luminous $\gamma$-ray binary known so far.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in A&

The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: A Bayesian analysis

Background: Accurate measures of the severity of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza (pH1N1) are needed to assess the likely impact of an anticipated resurgence in the autumn in the Northern Hemisphere. Severity has been difficult to measure because jurisdictions with large numbers of deaths and other severe outcomes have had too many cases to assess the total number with confidence. Also, detection of severe cases may be more likely, resulting in overestimation of the severity of an average case. We sought to estimate the probabilities that symptomatic infection would lead to hospitalization, ICU admission, and death by combining data from multiple sources. Methods and Findings: We used complementary data from two US cities: Milwaukee attempted to identify cases of medically attended infection whether or not they required hospitalization, while New York City focused on the identification of hospitalizations, intensive care admission or mechanical ventilation (hereafter, ICU), and deaths. New York data were used to estimate numerators for ICU and death, and two sources of data - medically attended cases in Milwaukee or self-reported influenza-like illness (ILI) in New York - were used to estimate ratios of symptomatic cases to hospitalizations. Combining these data with estimates of the fraction detected for each level of severity, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic patients who died (symptomatic case-fatality ratio, sCFR), required ICU (sCIR), and required hospitalization (sCHR), overall and by age category. Evidence, prior information, and associated uncertainty were analyzed in a Bayesian evidence synthesis framework. Using medically attended cases and estimates of the proportion of symptomatic cases medically attended, we estimated an sCFR of 0.048% (95% credible interval [CI] 0.026%-0.096%), sCIR of 0.239% (0.134%-0.458%), and sCHR of 1.44% (0.83%-2.64%). Using self-reported ILI, we obtained estimates approximately 7-96lower. sCFR and sCIR appear to be highest in persons aged 18 y and older, and lowest in children aged 5-17 y. sCHR appears to be lowest in persons aged 5-17; our data were too sparse to allow us to determine the group in which it was the highest. Conclusions: These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher, but with the greatest impact in children aged 0-4 and adults 18-64. These estimates of impact depend on assumptions about total incidence of infection and would be larger if incidence of symptomatic infection were higher or shifted toward adults, if viral virulence increased, or if suboptimal treatment resulted from stress on the health care system; numbers would decrease if the total proportion of the population symptomatically infected were lower than assumed.published_or_final_versio

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

VHE γ-ray discovery and multiwavelength study of the blazar 1ES 2322-409

A hotspot at a position compatible with the BL Lac object 1ES 2322-409 was serendipitously detected with H.E.S.S. during observations performed in 2004 and 2006 on the blazar PKS 2316-423. Additional data on 1ES 2322-409 were taken in 2011 and 2012, leading to a total live-time of 22.3 h. Point-like very-high-energy (VHE; E> 100 GeV) γ-ray emission is detected from a source centred on the 1ES 2322-409 position, with an excess of 116.7 events at a significance of 6.0σ. The average VHE γ-ray spectrum is well described with a power law with a photon index Γ = 3.40 ± 0.66stat ± 0.20sys and an integral flux Φ (E> 200 GeV) = (3.11± 0.71_stat± 0.62_sys)× 10^{-12} cm^{-2} s^{-1}, which corresponds to 1.1 {{ per cent}} of the Crab nebula flux above 200 GeV. Multiwavelength data obtained with Fermi LAT, Swift XRT and UVOT, RXTE PCA, ATOM, and additional data from WISE, GROND, and Catalina are also used to characterize the broad-band non-thermal emission of 1ES 2322-409. The multiwavelength behaviour indicates day-scale variability. Swift UVOT and XRT data show strong variability at longer scales. A spectral energy distribution (SED) is built from contemporaneous observations obtained around a high state identified in Swift data. A modelling of the SED is performed with a stationary homogeneous one-zone synchrotron-self-Compton leptonic model. The redshift of the source being unknown, two plausible values were tested for the modelling. A systematic scan of the model parameters space is performed, resulting in a well-constrained combination of values providing a good description of the broad-band behaviour of 1ES 2322-409

Detection of very-high-energy {\gamma}-ray emission from the colliding wind binary {\eta} Car with H.E.S.S

Aims. Colliding wind binary systems have long been suspected to be high-energy (HE; 100 MeV < E < 100 GeV) {\gamma}-ray emitters. {\eta} Car is the most prominent member of this object class and is confirmed to emit phase-locked HE {\gamma} rays from hundreds of MeV to ~100 GeV energies. This work aims to search for and characterise the very-high-energy (VHE; E >100 GeV) {\gamma}-ray emission from {\eta} Car around the last periastron passage in 2014 with the ground-based High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.). Methods. The region around {\eta} Car was observed with H.E.S.S. between orbital phase p = 0.78 - 1.10, with a closer sampling at p {\approx} 0.95 and p {\approx} 1.10 (assuming a period of 2023 days). Optimised hardware settings as well as adjustments to the data reduction, reconstruction, and signal selection were needed to suppress and take into account the strong, extended, and inhomogeneous night sky background (NSB) in the {\eta} Car field of view. Tailored run-wise Monte-Carlo simulations (RWS) were required to accurately treat the additional noise from NSB photons in the instrument response functions. Results. H.E.S.S. detected VHE {\gamma}-ray emission from the direction of {\eta} Car shortly before and after the minimum in the X-ray light-curve close to periastron. Using the point spread function provided by RWS, the reconstructed signal is point-like and the spectrum is best described by a power law. The overall flux and spectral index in VHE {\gamma} rays agree within statistical and systematic errors before and after periastron. The {\gamma}-ray spectrum extends up to at least ~400 GeV. This implies a maximum magnetic field in a leptonic scenario in the emission region of 0.5 Gauss. No indication for phase-locked flux variations is detected in the H.E.S.S. data.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, in press with A&

Sensitivity of the Cherenkov Telescope Array to a dark matter signal from the Galactic centre

We provide an updated assessment of the power of the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) to search for thermally produced dark matter at the TeV scale, via the associated gamma-ray signal from pair-annihilating dark matter particles in the region around the Galactic centre. We find that CTA will open a new window of discovery potential, significantly extending the range of robustly testable models given a standard cuspy profile of the dark matter density distribution. Importantly, even for a cored profile, the projected sensitivity of CTA will be sufficient to probe various well-motivated models of thermally produced dark matter at the TeV scale. This is due to CTA's unprecedented sensitivity, angular and energy resolutions, and the planned observational strategy. The survey of the inner Galaxy will cover a much larger region than corresponding previous observational campaigns with imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes. CTA will map with unprecedented precision the large-scale diffuse emission in high-energy gamma rays, constituting a background for dark matter searches for which we adopt state-of-the-art models based on current data. Throughout our analysis, we use up-to-date event reconstruction Monte Carlo tools developed by the CTA consortium, and pay special attention to quantifying the level of instrumental systematic uncertainties, as well as background template systematic errors, required to probe thermally produced dark matter at these energies

Observation of a sudden cessation of a very-high-energy gamma-ray flare in PKS 1510-089 with H.E.S.S. and MAGIC in May 2016

The flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) PKS 1510-089 is known for its complex multiwavelength behavior, and is one of only a few FSRQs detected at very high energy (VHE, E >100 GeV) -rays. VHE -ray observations with H.E.S.S. and MAGIC during late May and early June 2016 resulted in the detection of an unprecedented flare, which reveals for the first time VHE -ray intranight variability in this source. While a common variability timescale of 1.5 hr is found, there is a significant deviation near the end of the flare with a timescale of ∼ 20 min marking the cessation of the event. The peak flux is nearly two orders of magnitude above the low-level emission. For the first time, curvature is detected in the VHE -ray spectrum of PKS 1510-089, which is fully explained through absorption by the extragalactic background light. Optical R-band observations with ATOM reveal a counterpart of the -ray flare, even though the detailed flux evolution differs from the VHE lightcurve. Interestingly, a steep flux decrease is observed at the same time as the cessation of the VHE flare. In the high energy (HE, E >100 MeV) -ray band only a moderate flux increase is observed with Fermi-LAT, while the HE -ray spectrum significantly hardens up to a photon index of 1.6. A search for broad-line region (BLR) absorption features in the -ray spectrum indicates that the emission region is located outside of the BLR. Radio VLBI observations reveal a fast moving knot interacting with a standing jet feature around the time of the flare. As the standing feature is located ∼ 50 pc from the black hole, the emission region of the flare may have been located at a significant distance from the black hole. If this correlation is indeed true, VHE rays have been produced far down the jet where turbulent plasma crosses a standing shock.Accepted manuscrip

Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign

Abstract: In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M ⊙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87’s spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded

Hydrological modelling on atmospheric grids: using graphs of sub-grid elements to transport energy and water

Land surface models (LSMs) use the atmospheric grid as their basic spatial decomposition because their main objective is to provide the lower boundary conditions to the atmosphere. Lateral water flows at the surface on the other hand require a much higher spatial discretization as they are closely linked to topographic details. We propose here a methodology to automatically tile the atmospheric grid into hydrological coherent units which are connected through a graph. As water is transported on sub-grids of the LSM, land variables can easily be transferred to the routing network and advected if needed. This is demonstrated here for temperature. The quality of the river networks generated, as represented by the connected hydrological transfer units, are compared to the original data in order to quantify the degradation introduced by the discretization method. The conditions the sub-grid elements impose on the time step of the water transport scheme are evaluated, and a methodology is proposed to find an optimal value. Finally the scheme is applied in an off-line version of the ORCHIDEE (Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems) LSM over Europe to show that realistic river discharge and temperatures are predicted over the major catchments of the region. The simulated solutions are largely independent of the atmospheric grid used thanks to the proposed sub-grid approach.</p