Geoclimatic, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics related to dengue outbreaks in Southeastern Brazil: an annual spatial and spatiotemporal risk model over a 12-year period

Dengue fever is re-emerging worldwide, however the reasons of this new emergence are not fully understood. Our goal was to report the incidence of dengue in one of the most populous States of Brazil, and to assess the high-risk areas using a spatial and spatio-temporal annual models including geoclimatic, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. An ecological study with both, a spatial and a temporal component was carried out in Sao Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil, between January 1st, 2007 and December 31st, 2019. Crude and Bayesian empirical rates of dengue cases following by Standardized Incidence Ratios (SIR) were calculated considering the municipalities as the analytical units and using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation in a Bayesian context. A total of 2,027,142 cases of dengue were reported during the studied period. The spatial model allocated the municipalities in four groups according to the SIR values: (I) SIR<0.8; (II) SIR 0.8<1.2; (III) SIR 1.2<2.0 and SIR>2.0 identified the municipalities with higher risk for dengue outbreaks. “Hot spots” are shown in the thematic maps. Significant correlations between SIR and two climate variables, two demographic variables and one socioeconomical variable were found. No significant correlations were found in the spatio-temporal model. The incidence of dengue exhibited an inconstant and unpredictable variation every year. The highest rates of dengue are concentrated in geographical clusters with lower surface pressure, rainfall and altitude, but also in municipalities with higher degree of urbanization and better socioeconomic conditions. Nevertheless, annual consolidated variations in climatic features do not influence in the epidemic yearly pattern of dengue in southeastern Brazil

Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: A longitudinal analysis

Background: Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported by August 2021. Comparison of real-time local COVID-19 data between areas is essential for understanding transmission, measuring the effects of interventions, and predicting the course of the epidemic, but are often challenging due to different population sizes and structures. Methods: We describe the development of a new app for the real-time visualisation of COVID-19 data in Brazil at the municipality level. In the CLIC-Brazil app, daily updates of case and death data are downloaded, age standardised and used to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt). We show how such platforms can perform real-time regression analyses to identify factors associated with the rate of initial spread and early reproduction number. We also use survival methods to predict the likelihood of occurrence of a new peak of COVID-19 incidence. Findings: After an initial introduction in S\~o Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states in early March 2020, the epidemic spread to northern states and then to highly populated coastal regions and the Central-West. Municipalities with higher metrics of social development experienced earlier arrival of COVID-19 (decrease of 11·1 days 95% CI:8.9,13.2 in the time to arrival for each 10% increase in the social development index). Differences in the initial epidemic intensity (mean Rt) were largely driven by geographic location and the date of local onset. Interpretation: This study demonstrates that platforms that monitor, standardise and analyse the epidemiological data at a local level can give useful real-time insights into outbreak dynamics that can be used to better adapt responses to the current and future pandemics. Funding: This project was supported by a Medical Research Council UK (MRC-UK) -S{\~{a}}o Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award (MR/S0195/1 and FAPESP 18/14389-0

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals: A serial cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 situation in Brazil is complex due to large differences in the shape and size of regional epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial to understand future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or other respiratory pathogens in the country. METHODS: We tested 97,950 blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in 8 of Brazil's most populous cities. Residential postal codes were used to obtain representative samples. Weekly age- and sex-specific seroprevalence were estimated by correcting the crude seroprevalence by test sensitivity, specificity, and antibody waning. RESULTS: The inferred attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2020, before the Gamma variant of concern (VOC) was dominant, ranged from 19.3% (95% credible interval [CrI] 17.5-21.2%) in Curitiba to 75.0% (95% CrI 70.8-80.3%) in Manaus. Seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate increased significantly during the Gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system's collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43-3.53). CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to track epidemic maturity and demonstrate demographic and spatial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread. FUNDING: This work was supported by Itaú Unibanco 'Todos pela Saude' program; FAPESP (grants 18/14389-0, 2019/21585-0); Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 204311/Z/16/Z; the Gates Foundation (INV- 034540 and INV-034652); REDS-IV-P (grant HHSN268201100007I); the UK Medical Research Council (MR/S0195/1, MR/V038109/1); CAPES; CNPq (304714/2018-6); Fundação Faculdade de Medicina; Programa Inova Fiocruz-CE/Funcap - Edital 01/2020 Number: FIO-0167-00065.01.00/20 SPU N°06531047/2020; JBS - Fazer o bem faz bem

Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020 despite previously high levels of infection. Genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021 revealed the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern. Lineage P.1 acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor. Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54 to 79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness

Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: A longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported by August 2021. Comparison of real-time local COVID-19 data between areas is essential for understanding transmission, measuring the effects of interventions, and predicting the course of the epidemic, but are often challenging due to different population sizes and structures. METHODS: We describe the development of a new app for the real-time visualisation of COVID-19 data in Brazil at the municipality level. In the CLIC-Brazil app, daily updates of case and death data are downloaded, age standardised and used to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt ). We show how such platforms can perform real-time regression analyses to identify factors associated with the rate of initial spread and early reproduction number. We also use survival methods to predict the likelihood of occurrence of a new peak of COVID-19 incidence. FINDINGS: After an initial introduction in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states in early March 2020, the epidemic spread to northern states and then to highly populated coastal regions and the Central-West. Municipalities with higher metrics of social development experienced earlier arrival of COVID-19 (decrease of 11·1 days [95% CI:8.9,13.2] in the time to arrival for each 10% increase in the social development index). Differences in the initial epidemic intensity (mean Rt ) were largely driven by geographic location and the date of local onset. INTERPRETATION: This study demonstrates that platforms that monitor, standardise and analyse the epidemiological data at a local level can give useful real-time insights into outbreak dynamics that can be used to better adapt responses to the current and future pandemics. FUNDING: This project was supported by a Medical Research Council UK (MRC-UK) -São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award (MR/S0195/1 and FAPESP 18/14389-0)

Search for supersymmetry at √s=13 TeV in final states with jets and two same-sign leptons or three leptons with the ATLAS detector

A search for strongly produced supersymmetric particles is conducted using signatures involving multiple energetic jets and either two isolated leptons (e or μ μ) with the same electric charge or at least three isolated leptons. The search also utilises b-tagged jets, missing transverse momentum and other observables to extend its sensitivity. The analysis uses a data sample of proton–proton collisions at √s=13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015 corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb −1. No significant excess over the Standard Model expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in several simplified supersymmetric models and extend the exclusion limits from previous searches. In the context of exclusive production and simplified decay modes, gluino masses are excluded at 95% 95% confidence level up to 1.1–1.3 TeV for light neutralinos (depending on the decay channel), and bottom squark masses are also excluded up to 540 GeV. In the former scenarios, neutralino masses are also excluded up to 550–850 GeV for gluino masses around 1 TeV

Search for supersymmetry in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets, and at least one tau lepton in 20 fb−1 of √s=8 TeV proton-proton collision data with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry (SUSY) in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets, at least one hadronically decaying tau lepton and zero or one additional light leptons (electron/muon), has been performed using 20.3fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s= 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed in the various signal regions and 95% confidence level upper limits on the visible cross section for new phenomena are set. The results of the analysis are interpreted in several SUSY scenarios, significantly extending previous limits obtained in the same final states. In the framework of minimal gauge-mediated SUSY breaking models, values of the SUSY breaking scale Λ below 63 TeV are excluded, independently of tan β. Exclusion limits are also derived for an mSUGRA/CMSSM model, in both the R-parity-conserving and R-parity-violating case. A further interpretation is presented in a framework of natural gauge mediation, in which the gluino is assumed to be the only light coloured sparticle and gluino masses below 1090 GeV are excluded

Search for direct top-squark pair production in final states with two leptons in pp collisions at √s = 8TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search is presented for direct top-squark pair production in final states with two leptons (electrons or muons) of opposite charge using 20.3 fb−1 of pp collision data at √s = 8 TeV, collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider in 2012. No excess over the Standard Model expectation is found. The results are interpreted under the separate assumptions (i) that the top squark decays to a b-quark in addition to an on-shell chargino whose decay occurs via a real or virtual W boson, or (ii) that the top squark decays to a t-quark and the lightest neutralino. A top squark with a mass between 150 GeV and 445 GeV decaying to a b-quark and an on-shell chargino is excluded at 95% confidence level for a top squark mass equal to the chargino mass plus 10 GeV, in the case of a 1 GeV lightest neutralino. Top squarks with masses between 215 (90) GeV and 530 (170) GeV decaying to an on-shell (off-shell) t-quark and a neutralino are excluded at 95% confidence level for a 1 GeV neutralino

Search for top squark pair production in final states with one isolated lepton, jets, and missing transverse momentum in √s = 8 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for top squark (stop) pair production in final states with one isolated lepton, jets, and missing transverse momentum are reported. The analysis is performed with proton-proton collision data at s√ = 8 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in 2012 corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20 fb−1. The lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) is taken to be the lightest neutralino which only interacts weakly and is assumed to be stable. The stop decay modes considered are those to a top quark and the LSP as well as to a bottom quark and the lightest chargino, where the chargino decays to the LSP by emitting a W boson. A wide range of scenarios with different mass splittings between the stop, the lightest neutralino and the lightest chargino are considered, including cases where the W bosons or the top quarks are off-shell. Decay modes involving the heavier charginos and neutralinos are addressed using a set of phenomenological models of supersymmetry. No significant excess over the Standard Model prediction is observed. A stop with a mass between 210 and 640 GeV decaying directly to a top quark and a massless LSP is excluded at 95% confidence level, and in models where the mass of the lightest chargino is twice that of the LSP, stops are excluded at 95% confidence level up to a mass of 500 GeV for an LSP mass in the range of 100 to 150 GeV. Stringent exclusion limits are also derived for all other stop decay modes considered, and model-independent upper limits are set on the visible cross-section for processes beyond the Standard Model