The Realms Of Knowledge Management From An Organizational Perspective

The international scenario of industrial competitiveness has tremendously transformed during the last few decades. Organizations competing in the global economy are facing different challenges in order to survive and make progress. The rapid advancements in computer technology, emergence of the internet, World Wide Web, and telecommunication devices have profoundly affected the activities of business organizations. These trends have forced the organizations to reshape and redefine their economic and business strategies. This factor can be counted as the knowledge boom which, in today’s developed world, is more appropriately referred to as the knowledge management. Knowledge Management is one of the burning topics nowadays, which has brought significant changes in organizations in developed countries and gave new impetus for global competition and new challenges for the organization in developing countries. This paper aims at providing a ground work for organizations in developing countries.  It will help organizations provide a framework for contribution to  knowledge management aspect and also enable organizations in developing countries, especially large organizations intending to globalize their operations, to analyze their position and design a future strategy accordingly

Coexistence of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma in a renal transplant recipient: A case report.

In solid organ transplant patients, non-melanoma skin cancer remains a leading cause of mortality. The most common skin malignancies in solid organ transplant patients are squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC). In organ transplant patients, SCC is 100 times more prevalent, and BCC is 10 times more prevalent than in the general population. Many risk factors for developing such malignancies are equivalent to those in the general population. However, in the transplant population, such cancers occur at an earlier age, act more aggressively, and often appear at multiple locations. Thus, assiduousness on the patient\u27s part and healthcare providers is the highest priority. The concurrence of SCC and BCC together is rarely encountered in a post-transplant individual. We report a rare case of coexistence of SCC and BCC in the same patient. A 63-year-old man had been diagnosed with SCC and BCC simultaneously by a punch biopsy performed at two different scalp lesions of different diameters. This review describes an unusual occurrence of both skin cancers concurrently in a kidney transplant recipien

Pengaruh Motivasi Berprestasi Terhadap Unjuk Kerja Guru Madrasah Aliyah Aisyiyah Kota Binjai

Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah : (1) untuk mengetahui tentang bagaimana motivasi berprestasi; dan (2) untuk mengetahui tentang bagaimana unjuk kerja guru; (3) untuk mengetahui pengaruh motivasi berprestasi terhadap unjuk kerja guru di Madrasah Aliyah Aisyiyah kota Binjai. Populasi penelitian adalah seluruh guru di Madrasah Aliyah Aisyiyah kota Binjai dengan jumlah 25 orang, dengan sampel keseluruhan populasi atau total sampling.. Instrumen penelitian adalah angket dengan model skala Likert. Untuk mengolah data dari hasil penelitian ini dilakukan dengan metode regresi linier sederhana. Data yang diperoleh dari hasil penelitian ini dianalisis dengan menggunakan statistik analisis korelasi dan regresi yang telah memenuhi persyaratan yang dikehendaki yakni : (1) uji normalitas masing-masing data, (2) uji linieritas, dan (3) uji homogenitas data. Temuan penelitian menunjukkan : (1) Sebaran skor motivasi berprestasi (X) sebanyak 5 orang (20%) berada di bawah rata-rata kelas interval dan sebanyak 12 orang (48 %) berada pada rata-rata kelas interval dan sebanyak 8 orang (32 %) di atas rata-rata, (2) Sebaran skor Unjuk kerja guru Madrasah Aliyah Aisyiyah (Y) yang berada di bawah rata-rata kelas interval sebanyak 6 orang (24%), 12 orang (48%) berada pada rata-rata kelas interval dan sebanyak 7 orang (28%) di atas rata-rata, (3) koefisien korelasi antara variabel motivasi berprestasi (X) dengan unjuk kerja guru Madrasah Aliyah Aisyiyah (Y) sebesar 0,816 dengan demikian hubungan keduanya tergolong kuat. Sementara itu besaran koefisien determinasi (r2 ) sebesar 0,666, koefisien determinasi ini menunjukkan bahwa motivasi berprestasi memberikan pengaruh terhadap unjuk kerja guru Madrasah Aliyah Aisyiyah sebesar 0,666 x 100% = 66,6 % dan membentuk hubungan linier dan prediktif melalui garis regresi Ŷ = 65,015 + 1,920 X. Besaran prediktif ini menunjukkan bahwa apabila terjadi peningkatan satu skor motivasi berprestasi akan meningkatkan sebesar 1,920 skor pada unjuk kerja guru Madrasah Aliyah Aisyiyah kota Binjai

Circulating exosomal immuno-oncological checkpoints and cytokines are potential biomarkers to monitor tumor response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy in non-small cell lung cancer patients

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) including anti-PD-1 and anti-PD-L1 antibodies, have significantly changed the treatment outcomes of NSCLC patients with better overall survival. However, 15-40% of the patients still fail to respond to ICIs therapy. Identification of biomarkers associated with responses are mandated in order to increase the efficacy of such therapy. In this study we evaluated 27 serum-derived exosomal immuno-oncological proteins and 44 cytokines/chemokines before and after ICIs therapy in 17 NSCLC patients to identify surrogate biomarkers for treatment/monitoring patient stratification for maximum therapeutic benefit. We first confirmed the identity of the isolated exosomes to have their specific markers (CD63, CD81, HSP70 and CD91). We have demonstrated that baseline concentration of exosomal-PD-L1 (p<0.0001), exosomal-PD-L2 (p=0.0413) and exosomal-PD-1 (p=0.0131) from NSCLC patients were significantly higher than their soluble-free forms. Furthermore, the exosomal-PD-L1 was present in all the patients (100%), while only 71% of patients expressed tissue PD-L1. This indicates that exosomal-PD-L1 is a more reliable diagnostic biomarker. Interestingly, exosomal-PD-L2 expression was significantly higher (p=0.0193) in tissue PD-L1-negative patients compared to tissue PD-L1-positive patients. We have also shown that immuno-oncological proteins isolated from pre-ICIs treated patients were significantly higher in exosomes compared to their soluble-free counterparts (CD152, p=0.0008; CD80, p=0.0182; IDO, p=0.0443; Arginase, p<0.0001; Nectin-2, p<0.0001; NT5E, p<0.0001; Siglec-7, p<0.0001; Siglec-9, p=0.0335; CD28, p=0.0092; GITR, p<0.0001; MICA, p<0.0001). Finally, the changes in the expression levels of exosomal immuno-oncological proteins/cytokines and their correlation with tumor response to ICIs treatment were assessed. There was a significant downregulation of exosomal PD-L1 (p=0.0156), E-Cadherin (p=0.0312), ULBP1 (p=0.0156), ULBP3 (p=0.0391), MICA (p=0.0391), MICB (p=0.0469), Siglec7 (p=0.0078) and significant upregulation of exosomal PD-1 (p=0.0156) and IFN- γ (p=0.0156) in responding patients. Non-responding patients showed a significant increase in exosomal-PD-L1 (p=0.0078). Furthermore, responding-patients without liver-metastasis showed significant-upregulation of PD-1 (p=0.0070), and downregulation of ULBP1 (p=0.0137) and Siglec-7 (p=0.0037). Non-responding patients had significant-downregulation of ULBP3 (p=0.0317) in patient without brain-metastasis and significant-upregulation/downregulation of PD-L1 and ULBP3 (p=0.0262/0.0286) in patients with pulmonary-metastasis. We demonstrated for the first time that exosomal immuno-oncological proteins/cytokines are potential biomarkers to monitor response to ICIs therapy and can predict the clinical outcomes in NSCLC patients.This research was funded by Academic Health System, Medical Research Center, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar, grant number MRC-01-20-507 and the Article Processing Charges was funded by Academic Health System, Medical Research Center, Hamad Medical Corporation, Doha, Qatar

Circulating exosomal immuno-oncological checkpoints and cytokines are potential biomarkers to monitor tumor response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 therapy in non-small cell lung cancer patients

Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) including anti-PD-1 and anti-PD-L1 antibodies, have significantly changed the treatment outcomes of NSCLC patients with better overall survival. However, 15-40% of the patients still fail to respond to ICIs therapy. Identification of biomarkers associated with responses are mandated in order to increase the efficacy of such therapy. In this study we evaluated 27 serum-derived exosomal immuno-oncological proteins and 44 cytokines/chemokines before and after ICIs therapy in 17 NSCLC patients to identify surrogate biomarkers for treatment/monitoring patient stratification for maximum therapeutic benefit. We first confirmed the identity of the isolated exosomes to have their specific markers (CD63, CD81, HSP70 and CD91). We have demonstrated that baseline concentration of exosomal-PD-L1 (p&lt;0.0001), exosomal-PD-L2 (p=0.0413) and exosomal-PD-1 (p=0.0131) from NSCLC patients were significantly higher than their soluble-free forms. Furthermore, the exosomal-PD-L1 was present in all the patients (100%), while only 71% of patients expressed tissue PD-L1. This indicates that exosomal-PD-L1 is a more reliable diagnostic biomarker. Interestingly, exosomal-PD-L2 expression was significantly higher (p=0.0193) in tissue PD-L1-negative patients compared to tissue PD-L1-positive patients. We have also shown that immuno-oncological proteins isolated from pre-ICIs treated patients were significantly higher in exosomes compared to their soluble-free counterparts (CD152, p=0.0008; CD80, p=0.0182; IDO, p=0.0443; Arginase, p&lt;0.0001; Nectin-2, p&lt;0.0001; NT5E, p&lt;0.0001; Siglec-7, p&lt;0.0001; Siglec-9, p=0.0335; CD28, p=0.0092; GITR, p&lt;0.0001; MICA, p&lt;0.0001). Finally, the changes in the expression levels of exosomal immuno-oncological proteins/cytokines and their correlation with tumor response to ICIs treatment were assessed. There was a significant downregulation of exosomal PD-L1 (p=0.0156), E-Cadherin (p=0.0312), ULBP1 (p=0.0156), ULBP3 (p=0.0391), MICA (p=0.0391), MICB (p=0.0469), Siglec7 (p=0.0078) and significant upregulation of exosomal PD-1 (p=0.0156) and IFN- γ (p=0.0156) in responding patients. Non-responding patients showed a significant increase in exosomal-PD-L1 (p=0.0078). Furthermore, responding-patients without liver-metastasis showed significant-upregulation of PD-1 (p=0.0070), and downregulation of ULBP1 (p=0.0137) and Siglec-7 (p=0.0037). Non-responding patients had significant-downregulation of ULBP3 (p=0.0317) in patient without brain-metastasis and significant-upregulation/downregulation of PD-L1 and ULBP3 (p=0.0262/0.0286) in patients with pulmonary-metastasis. We demonstrated for the first time that exosomal immuno-oncological proteins/cytokines are potential biomarkers to monitor response to ICIs therapy and can predict the clinical outcomes in NSCLC patients

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings Globally in 2019, 1.14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1.13-1.16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7.41 trillion (7.11-7.74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27.5% [26. 5-28.5] reduction) and females (37.7% [35.4-39.9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0.99 billion (0.98-1.00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7.69 million (7.16-8.20) deaths and 200 million (185-214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20.2% [19.3-21.1] of male deaths). 6.68 million [86.9%] of 7.69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7.69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a dear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation