The global burden of injury: Incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years and time trends from the global burden of disease study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors study used the disabilityadjusted life year (DALY) to quantify the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors. This paper provides an overview of injury estimates from the 2013 update of GBD, with detailed information on incidence, mortality, DALYs and rates of change from 1990 to 2013 for 26 causes of injury, globally, by region and by country. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the extensive GBD mortality database, corrections for illdefined cause of death and the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient data sets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories, and seven follow-up studies with patient-reported long-term outcome measures. Results In 2013, 973 million (uncertainty interval (UI) 942 to 993) people sustained injuries that warranted some type of healthcare and 4.8 million (UI 4.5 to 5.1) people died from injuries. Between 1990 and 2013 the global age-standardised injury DALY rate decreased by 31% (UI 26% to 35%). The rate of decline in DALY rates was significant for 22 cause-of-injury categories, including all the major injuries. Conclusions Injuries continue to be an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed and developing world. The decline in rates for almost all injuries is so prominent that it warrants a general statement that the world is becoming a safer place to live in. However, the patterns vary widely by cause, age, sex, region and time and there are still large improvements that need to be made

Global and national Burden of diseases and injuries among children and adolescents between 1990 and 2013

Importance The literature focuses on mortality among children younger than 5 years. Comparable information on nonfatal health outcomes among these children and the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among older children and adolescents is scarce. Objective To determine levels and trends in the fatal and nonfatal burden of diseases and injuries among younger children (aged <5 years), older children (aged 5-9 years), and adolescents (aged 10-19 years) between 1990 and 2013 in 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study. Evidence Review Data from vital registration, verbal autopsy studies, maternal and child death surveillance, and other sources covering 14 244 site-years (ie, years of cause of death data by geography) from 1980 through 2013 were used to estimate cause-specific mortality. Data from 35 620 epidemiological sources were used to estimate the prevalence of the diseases and sequelae in the GBD 2013 study. Cause-specific mortality for most causes was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model strategy. For some infectious diseases (eg, HIV infection/AIDS, measles, hepatitis B) where the disease process is complex or the cause of death data were insufficient or unavailable, we used natural history models. For most nonfatal health outcomes, DisMod-MR 2.0, a Bayesian metaregression tool, was used to meta-analyze the epidemiological data to generate prevalence estimates. Findings Of the 7.7 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.4-8.1) million deaths among children and adolescents globally in 2013, 6.28 million occurred among younger children, 0.48 million among older children, and 0.97 million among adolescents. In 2013, the leading causes of death were lower respiratory tract infections among younger children (905 059 deaths; 95% UI, 810 304-998 125), diarrheal diseases among older children (38 325 deaths; 95% UI, 30 365-47 678), and road injuries among adolescents (115 186 deaths; 95% UI, 105 185-124 870). Iron deficiency anemia was the leading cause of years lived with disability among children and adolescents, affecting 619 (95% UI, 618-621) million in 2013. Large between-country variations exist in mortality from leading causes among children and adolescents. Countries with rapid declines in all-cause mortality between 1990 and 2013 also experienced large declines in most leading causes of death, whereas countries with the slowest declines had stagnant or increasing trends in the leading causes of death. In 2013, Nigeria had a 12% global share of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections and a 38% global share of deaths from malaria. India had 33% of the world’s deaths from neonatal encephalopathy. Half of the world’s diarrheal deaths among children and adolescents occurred in just 5 countries: India, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Conclusions and Relevance Understanding the levels and trends of the leading causes of death and disability among children and adolescents is critical to guide investment and inform policies. Monitoring these trends over time is also key to understanding where interventions are having an impact. Proven interventions exist to prevent or treat the leading causes of unnecessary death and disability among children and adolescents. The findings presented here show that these are underused and give guidance to policy makers in countries where more attention is needed

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Trends and projections of vehicle crash related fatalities and injuries in Northwest Gondar, Ethiopia: a time series analysis

Background: Road traffic crashes are a huge public health and development problem in Ethiopia. Its current situation requires a high level political commitment, immediate decisions and actions in order to curb the growing problem. Materials and Methods: Data on fatalities, total and partial permanent injuries, and lost workday attributable to vehicle crashes were collected from North Gondar Traffic Offices from 1996 to 2011. Holt and Brown exponential smoothing techniques were used to model the number of fatalities and other injuries due to vehicle crashes. Results: There were 2300 vehicle crashes that occurred from 1996 to 2011 causing an estimated 968 fatalities, 1665 lost workday and 1185 permanent total and partial injuries, and 1,899,950.60$losses. Only 7.6$ losses. Conclusion: The numbers of lives lost and disabilities due to vehicle crashes indicated an upward trend in the last decade showing future burden in terms of societal and economic costs threatening the lives of many individuals. Surveillance systems that could enable to monitor patterns of vehicle crashes with preventive strategies must be established

Evaluation of the nutritional quality of complementary food formulated from locally available grains and Moringa stenopetala in southern Ethiopia

Moringa stenopetala is an indigenous multipurpose tree grown in the back yard and crop lands with nutritional and medicinal value. This study aimed to produce M. stenopetala leaf powder supplementation on the macro and micronutrient nutritive values of maize–soybean–chickpea and sorghums–soybean–chickpea food formulations for use as a complementary food for infants and young children. The dried leaves of M. stenopetala and grains were ground and sieved to appropriate particle size. Proportions of grain flour and M. stenopetala leaf powder admixed in the formulations were determined using Nutri-Survey-Linear-Programming Software. Fourteen formulations were made from unprocessed and processed grains supplemented with 5% and 10% M. stenopetala leaf powder. A preferred ratio was selected based on the nutritional value (energy and protein) and sensory evaluation while using two unfortified formulations as control. Food analysis was performed with standard methods. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) with Turkey test was conducted to investigate the mean difference of nutritional values and sensory evaluation among different formulations. The crude protein and ash contents of the diets increased significantly with M. stenopetala leaf fortification and energy content. There was a significant decrease in carbohydrate content in the formulation of 10 and 12 compared to the controls as the percentage level of M. stenopetala leaf powder supplementation increased. This could be due to substitution effect of M. stenopetala as evidenced by the nutritional composition of the individual ingredients. The fat content of the formulation 10 and 12 that were selected by sensory evaluation was relatively higher (10.6%) than the control blend (9.85%) but not statistically significant, which fulfills the recommended dietary allowance by FAO/WHO. The product development study showed that the addition of M. stenopetala leaf powder to locally available food ingredients such as sorghum/maize, soybean and chickpea enhances nutrient value, such as energy, ash, protein, potassium and fat contents. Therefore, blending M. stenopetala with locally available food crops could be an option to mitigate protein–energy malnutrition (PEM) and micronutrient deficiency by improving traditionally used staple foods

High prevalence of substance use and associated factors among high school adolescents in Woreta Town, Northwest Ethiopia: multi-domain factor analysis

Background: Substance use is a major public health concern in global settings, and is very common during adolescence period leading to physical and/or mental health complications. This study assessed the prevalence of substance use and associated factors among high school adolescents in Woreta Town, Northwest Ethiopia, 2012.Methods: A school based cross -sectional study was conducted from April 7 to April 15, 2012 amongst 684 9th to 12th grade high school students in the town of Woreta. Participants were selected by stratified sampling, and data were collected using an anonymous questionnaire adapted from the 2008 Community That Care Youth Survey. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors associated with substance use.Results: A total of 651 students participated in the study with a response rate of 95.2%. The current prevalence of substance use among Woreta high school students was 47.9% and life -time prevalence was 65.4%. The current and lifetime prevalence of alcohol use was 40.9% and 59% respectively. Siblings' use of substances (AOR [95% CI]: 2.72 [1.79, 4.14]), family history of alcohol and substance use (AOR [95% CI] 2.24 [1.39 - 3.59]) and friends' use of substances ( AOR [95% CI] 2.14 [1.44 - 3.18]) were factors positively associated with substance use. On the other hand, religiosity and social skill were found to be 54% ( AOR [95% CI] 0.46, [0.31 - 0.68]) and 39% ( AOR [95% CI] 0.6 [0.40 - 0.91]) negatively associated with substance use.Conclusions: The prevalence of substance use amongst adolescents was high for the three substances namely alcohol, cigarette and khat with alcohol being the most common. Community norms favorable to substance use, family history of alcohol and substance use, siblings' substance use, poor academic performance, low perceived risk of substances and friends' use of substances had positive association with adolescent substance use while religiosity and social skills were found to have negative association with adolescent substance use. Initiate public awareness campaigns to inform adolescents and adults, particularly parents, of the risk of substance use. Developing culture friendly, gender based adolescent and family based programs and initiating public awareness are recommended to decrease substance use by adolescents

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Respiratory Symptoms Among Bahir Dar Textile Industry Workers, Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Introduction: The expansions of labor-intensive investments in a developing countries, especially in textile production create a dusty work environment for workers, and those workers are from the low socio-economic group and need special safety concern. Objective: This study was aimed at assessing the prevalence of respiratory symptoms and associated factors among textile factories workers in Bahir Dar, Amhara region, Ethiopia, 2015. Methods: Institutional based cross-sectional study design was employed among randomly selected 384 textile workers using pre-tested interviewer-administered questionnaire. We stratified workers by their working section in the textile industries. Then the proportional numbers of workers were selected from each working section of the factory by using a random number generator. The identification number of workers from each factory was used for selection. The data were checked, coded, and entered to Epi-info Version 7 and exported to the Statistical Package for Social Science Version 20 for further analysis. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to identify associated factors. Variables having a P ⩽.2 were fitted to multivariate logistic regression so as to assess the presence and strength of association with the respiratory symptom. Variables having a