Wind Energy Forecasting at Different Time Horizons with Individual and Global Models

This paper has been presented at: 14th IFIP International Conference on Artificial Intelligence Applications and InnovationsIn this work two different machine learning approaches have been studied to predict wind power for different time horizons: individual and global models. The individual approach constructs a model for each horizon while the global approach obtains a single model that can be used for all horizons. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. Each individual model is trained with data pertaining to a single horizon, thus it can be specific for that horizon, but can use fewer data for training than the global model, which is constructed with data belonging to all horizons. Support Vector Machines have been used for constructing the individual and global models. This study has been tested on energy production data obtained from the Sotavento wind farm and meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for a 5 × 5 grid around Sotavento. Also, given the large amount of variables involved, a feature selection algorithm (Sequential Forward Selection) has been used in order to improve the performance of the models. Experimental results show that the global model is more accurate than the individual ones, specially when feature selection is used.The authors acknowledge financial support granted by the Spanish Ministry of Science under contract ENE2014-56126-C2-2-R

Feasibility and safety of setting up a donor breastmilk bank in a neonatal prem unit in a resource limited setting: An observational, longitudinal cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The beneficial effects of human milk on decreasing rates of paediatric infections such as necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and sepsis have been clearly demonstrated. Donor breastmilk has been encouraged as the milk of choice when a mother's own breastmilk is not available. The objectives of this study were to assess feasibility of providing donor breastmilk to infants in a resource limited Neonatal Prem Unit (NPU). In addition we sought to determine whether donor breastmilk could be safely pasteurized and administered to infants without any adverse events.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Low birth weight infants < 1800 g and under 32 weeks gestational age were followed up in the NPU over a 3 week period; feeding data and morbidity data was collected in order to determine if there were any adverse events associated with donor breastmilk. Samples of pasteurized breastmilk were cultured to check for any bacterial contamination.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>191 infants met the inclusion criteria of whom 96 received their mother's own breastmilk. Of the 95 infants who were potentially eligible to receive donor milk, only 40 did in fact receive donor milk. There was no evidence of bacterial contamination in the samples analyzed, and no evidence of adverse events from feeding with donor breastmilk.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It is feasible to supply donor breastmilk to infants in an NPU in a resource limited setting, however staff needs to be sensitized to the importance of donor breastmilk to improve uptake rates. Secondly we showed that it is possible to supply donor breastmilk according to established guidelines with no adverse events therefore making it possible to prevent NEC and other side effects often associated with formula feeding of premature infants.</p

Implementation and evaluation of a harm-reduction model for clinical care of substance using pregnant women

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Methamphetamine (MA) use during pregnancy is associated with many pregnancy complications, including preterm birth, small for gestational age, preeclampsia, and abruption. Hawaii has lead the nation in MA use for many years, yet prior to 2007, did not have a comprehensive plan to care for pregnant substance-using women. In 2006, the Hawaii State Legislature funded a pilot perinatal addiction clinic. The Perinatal Addiction Treatment Clinic of Hawaii was built on a harm-reduction model, encompassing perinatal care, transportation, child-care, social services, family planning, motivational incentives, and addiction medicine. We present the implementation model and results from our first one hundred three infants (103) seen over 3 years of operation of the program.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Referrals came from community health centers, hospitals, addiction treatment facilities, private physician offices, homeless outreach services and self-referral through word-of-mouth and bus ads. Data to describe sample characteristics and outcome was obtained prospectively and retrospectively from chart abstraction and delivery data. Drug use data was obtained from the women's self-report and random urine toxicology during the pregnancy, as well as urine toxicology at the time of birth on mothers, and urine and meconium toxicology on the infants. Post-partum depression was measured in mothers with the Edinburgh Post-Partum depression scale. Data from Path clinic patients were compared with a representative cohort of women delivering at Kapiolani Medical Center for Women and Children during the same time frame, who were enrolled in another study of pregnancy outcomes. Ethical approval for this study was obtained through the University of Hawaii Committee for Human Studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Between April 2007 and August 2010, 213 women with a past or present history of addiction were seen, 132 were pregnant and 97 delivered during that time. 103 live-born infants were delivered. There were 3 first-trimester Spontaneous Abortions, two 28-week intrauterine fetal deaths, and two sets of twins and 4 repeat pregnancies. Over 50% of the women had lost custody of previous children due to substance use. The majority of women who delivered used methamphetamine (86%), either in the year before pregnancy or during pregnancy. Other drugs include marijuana (59.8%), cocaine (33%), opiates (9.6%), and alcohol (15.2%). Of the women served, 85% smoked cigarettes upon enrollment. Of the 97 women delivered during this period, all but 4 (96%) had negative urine toxicology at the time of delivery. Of the 103 infants, 13 (12.6%) were born preterm, equal to the state and national average, despite having many risk factors for prematurity, including poverty, poor diet, smoking and polysubstance use. Overwhelmingly, the women are parenting their children, > 90% retained custody at 8 weeks. Long-term follow-up showed that women who maintained custody chose long-acting contraceptive methods; while those who lost custody had a very high (> 50%) repeat pregnancy rate at 9 months post delivery.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Methamphetamine use during pregnancy doesn't exist is isolation. It is often combined with a multitude of other adverse circumstances, including poverty, interpersonal violence, psychiatric comorbidity, polysubstance use, nutritional deficiencies, inadequate health care and stressful life experiences. A comprehensive harm reduction model of perinatal care, which aims to ameliorate some of these difficulties for substance-using women without mandating abstinence, provides exceptional birth outcomes and can be implemented with limited resources.</p

Psychosocial interventions for supporting women to stop smoking in pregnancy

Background: Tobacco smoking remains one of the few preventable factors associated with complications in pregnancy, and has serious long-term implications for women and babies. Smoking in pregnancy is decreasing in high-income countries, but is strongly associated with poverty and is increasing in low- to middle-income countries. Objectives: To assess the effects of smoking cessation interventions during pregnancy on smoking behaviour and perinatal health outcomes. Search methods: In this sixth update, we searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (13 November 2015), checked reference lists of retrieved studies and contacted trial authors. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials, cluster-randomised trials, and quasi-randomised controlled trials of psychosocial smoking cessation interventions during pregnancy. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion and trial quality, and extracted data. Direct comparisons were conducted in RevMan, with meta-regression conducted in STATA 14. Main results: The overall quality of evidence was moderate to high, with reductions in confidence due to imprecision and heterogeneity for some outcomes. One hundred and two trials with 120 intervention arms (studies) were included, with 88 trials (involving over 28,000 women) providing data on smoking abstinence in late pregnancy. Interventions were categorised as counselling, health education, feedback, incentives, social support, exercise and dissemination. In separate comparisons, there is high-quality evidence that counselling increased smoking cessation in late pregnancy compared with usual care (30 studies; average risk ratio (RR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 1.73) and less intensive interventions (18 studies; average RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.47). There was uncertainty whether counselling increased the chance of smoking cessation when provided as one component of a broader maternal health intervention or comparing one type of counselling with another. In studies comparing counselling and usual care (largest comparison), it was unclear whether interventions prevented smoking relapse among women who had stopped smoking spontaneously in early pregnancy. However, a clear effect was seen in smoking abstinence at zero to five months postpartum (11 studies; average RR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.01) and 12 to 17 months (two studies, average RR 2.20, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.96), with a borderline effect at six to 11 months (six studies; average RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.77). In other comparisons, the effect was unclear for most secondary outcomes, but sample sizes were small. Evidence suggests a borderline effect of health education compared with usual care (five studies; average RR 1.59, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.55), but the quality was downgraded to moderate as the effect was unclear when compared with less intensive interventions (four studies; average RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.70), alternative interventions (one study; RR 1.88, 95% CI 0.19 to 18.60), or when smoking cessation health education was provided as one component of a broader maternal health intervention. There was evidence feedback increased smoking cessation when compared with usual care and provided in conjunction with other strategies, such as counselling (average RR 4.39, 95% CI 1.89 to 10.21), but the confidence in the quality of evidence was downgraded to moderate as this was based on only two studies and the effect was uncertain when feedback was compared to less intensive interventions (three studies; average RR 1.29, 95% CI 0.75 to 2.20). High-quality evidence suggests incentive-based interventions are effective when compared with an alternative (non-contingent incentive) intervention (four studies; RR 2.36, 95% CI 1.36 to 4.09). However pooled effects were not calculable for comparisons with usual care or less intensive interventions (substantial heterogeneity, I2 = 93%). High-quality evidence suggests the effect is unclear in social support interventions provided by peers (six studies; average RR 1.42, 95% CI 0.98 to 2.07), in a single trial of support provided by partners, or when social support for smoking cessation was provided as part of a broader intervention to improve maternal health. The effect was unclear in single interventions of exercise compared to usual care (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.72 to 2.01) and dissemination of counselling (RR 1.63, 95% CI 0.62 to 4.32). Importantly, high-quality evidence from pooled results demonstrated that women who received psychosocial interventions had a 17% reduction in infants born with low birthweight, a significantly higher mean birthweight (mean difference (MD) 55.60 g, 95% CI 29.82 to 81.38 g higher) and a 22% reduction in neonatal intensive care admissions. However the difference in preterm births and stillbirths was unclear. There did not appear to be adverse psychological effects from the interventions. The intensity of support women received in both the intervention and comparison groups has increased over time, with higher-intensity interventions more likely to have higher-intensity comparisons, potentially explaining why no clear differences were seen with increasing intervention intensity in meta-regression analyses. Among meta-regression analyses: studies classified as having 'unclear' implementation and unequal baseline characteristics were less effective than other studies. There was no clear difference between trials implemented by researchers (efficacy studies), and those implemented by routine pregnancy staff (effectiveness studies), however there was uncertainty in the effectiveness of counselling in four dissemination trials where the focus on the intervention was at an organisational level. The pooled effects were similar in interventions provided for women classified as having predominantly low socio-economic status, compared to other women. The effect was significant in interventions among women from ethnic minority groups; however not among indigenous women. There were similar effect sizes in trials with biochemically validated smoking abstinence and those with self-reported abstinence. It was unclear whether incorporating use of self-help manuals or telephone support increased the effectiveness of interventions. Authors' conclusions: Psychosocial interventions to support women to stop smoking in pregnancy can increase the proportion of women who stop smoking in late pregnancy and the proportion of infants born low birthweight. Counselling, feedback and incentives appear to be effective, however the characteristics and context of the interventions should be carefully considered. The effect of health education and social support is less clear. New trials have been published during the preparation of this review and will be included in the next update