Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Using response surface methodology for assessment of heating effect on reduction of aflatoxin

Considerable attempts have been made for the complete elimination of aflatoxins (AFs), as potent health hazards to both humans and animals, or reduction of their content in foodstuffs with increasing the knowledge and awareness of these toxins. In spite of the fact that the most effective intervention is considered prevention, heating has been also applied for the inactivation of AFs in contaminated foodstuffs. In the present study, the adoption of response surface methodology was evaluated for the assessment of the effect of heating on the reduction of AFs. Despite various degrees of AF decrease in the samples by treatment, a significant reduction was observed in the heated samples at a temperature of 90°C for 240 min. According to the results of the current study, a 23.70 reduction was reported in the amount of aflatoxin B1 (AFB1). Various treatment conditions demonstrated a significant difference in AFB1 decomposition (P<0.05). In addition, AFB1 degrading was reported to be depending on both time and temperature. After the statistical analysis of the obtained data, the third-order equation for the reduction of AFB1 is presented as follows (A: Time; B: Heating): AFB1 = 12.28 + 6.24A + 4.95B + 1.12AB-3.11A2 + 1.55B2. © 2021, Islamic Azad University. All rights reserved

Tracing of false negative results in phenotypic methods for identification of carbapenemase by Real-time PCR

Background: Carbapenemase production causes multi antibiotics resistant in Gram-negative bacteria. A simple rapid and accurate phenotypic test for detection of Gram-negative carbapenemase-producing bacteria is useful for the treatment of infections. The aim of this study was to track the negative results in carbapenemase phenotypic test by Real-time PCR. Materials and Methods: In this study, 161 imipenem resistant Gram-negative bacteria were surveyed. Modified Hodge Test (MHT), boronic acid (BA), EDTA and dipicolinic acid were used for detection of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) and metallo-beta-lactamase (MBLs). Different phenotypic methods and PCR confirmation followed by Real-time PCR for determination of phenotypic false-negative results were used. Results: Our results indicated that 85, 51 and 112 strains were MHT, BA and dipicolinic acid positive, respectively. No synergistic effect was observed between imipenem and EDTA. Sixty-nine strains were confirmed as carbapenemase-producers according to the results of molecular tests. All of the isolates carried the gene and expressed carbapenemase. Conclusion: Comparison between the results of phenotypic and genotypic methods showed that the phenotypic methods could be used as the primary screening and the PCR remains as the gold standard for detection of carbapenemase positive strains. © 2015 Elsevier B.V

Comparison of multiple-locus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis with pulsed-field gel electrophoresis typing of carbapenemases producing Acinetobacter baumannii isolated from burn patients

Background Acinetobacter baumannii is one of the important causes of nosocomial infection especially in burn patients. So, carbapenemase producing strains can make serious therapeutic problems. Molecular epidemiology studies play key role in decreasing the incidence of carbapenemase producing strains. Methods In this study, 50 carbapenem resistant A. baumannii isolates from burn patients were collected. Antibiotic susceptibility testing and PCR assay was performed for detection of blaVIM, blaIMP, blaOXA-23,blaOXA-48,blaNDM-1, blaSPM-1, blaOxa-51 and blaKPC genes. Molecular typing for carbapenemase producing strains were performed by PFGE and MLVA. Results According to the results of antibiotic susceptibility tests all of strains were XDR and 46 (92) harbored carbapenemase genes. PFGE and MLVA results showed the presence of 11 and 5 dominant clonal types respectively. Conclusion The results of this study were showed the presence of certain clonal groups in two different wards of hospital indicating the spread of carbapenemase producing A. baumannii. On the other hand, the results showed the more discriminating power for PFGE. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved

Maternal exposure to air pollution and umbilical asprosin concentration, a novel insulin-resistant marker

Air pollution exposure during pregnancy has been associated with abnormal glucose hemostasis in the fetus, which may result in the programming of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) development in future life. Therefore, we investigated the association of maternal exposure to particulate matters (PMs) and traffic indicators with umbilical asprosin concentration, a novel insulin-resistant inducing adipokine, in newborns. Accordingly, 759 mother-newborn pairs from Sabzevar, Iran (2018�2019) participated in our study. Maternal exposure to PM1, PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations was estimated using spatial-temporal models developed for the study area. The associations of exposure to traffic indicators (total street length in 100, 300 and 500 m buffers around home and proximity of mothers to nearest major roads) and air pollution with umbilical asprosin concentration were estimated using linear regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) of umbilical asprosin concentration was 30.4 (19.1) ng/mL. In fully adjusted models, each one IQR increase in PM10 and PM2.5 were associated with 26.43 ng/mL (95 CI: 10.97, 41.88) and 31.76 ng/mL (95 CI: 15.66, 47.86) increase in umbilical asprosin concentration, respectively. A similarity result was observed for total street length in 100 m buffer. An increase in proximity to major roads was associated with a decrease of �21.48 ng/mL (95 CI: 33.29, �9.67) in umbilical asprosin concentration. Our results suggested that maternal exposure to air pollution during pregnancy could increase the umbilical asprosin concentration. These novel findings may improve our understanding of the mechanisms whereby air pollutants impaired glucose hemostasis during the fetal period. © 2020 Elsevier Lt

Dietary pattern and telomere length in preschool children in a middle-income country

Telomere length (TL) has been associated with lifestyle and dietary pattern. However, the available evidence on this association in children is scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the association of dietary pattern and leukocyte TL (LTL) in preschool children, Sabzevar, Iran (2017). This cross-sectional study was based on 187 preschool children (aged 5 to 7) recruited from 27 kindergartens. Nutrition information including amounts of consumed dairy products, meat and processed meat products, nuts and seeds, white bread and refined grains, fruits, vegetables, simple sugars, fats and drinks was obtained through a questionnaire. Linear mixed-effects models were fitted with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) plate ID and kindergartens as random effects to estimate the association of each food group consumption with LTL, controlled for relevant covariates. Higher consumption of dairy products and sugar was associated with shorter LTL (β = �0.180, 95 confidence interval CI: �0.276, �0.085, P value <0.001 and β = �0.139, 95% CI: �0.193, �0.086, P value <0.001, respectively). An increase in consumption of fish, nuts and seeds, coloured fruits, green leafy vegetables, cruciferous vegetables and olive was significantly associated with the increase in relative LTL. The associations for the consumption of legumes, other fruits, yellow and orange vegetables, red meat, egg, white bread and refined grains, solid and liquid fats, processed meats, potato chips, carbonated drinks, tea (black) and soft drinks groups were not statistically significant. Our findings showed that there was an association between the consumption of certain food groups with LTL. © 2021 The Authors. Maternal & Child Nutrition published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd