An Item Response Theory Approach to Causal Inference in the Presence of a Pre-intervention Assessment

This research develops a form of causal inference based on Item Response Theory (IRT) to combat bias that occurs when existing causal inference methods are used under certain scenarios. When a pre-test is administered, prior to a treatment decision, bias can occur in causal inferences about the decision's effect on the outcome. This new IRT based method uses item-level information, treatment placement, and the outcome to produce estimates of each subject's ability in the chosen domain. Examining a causal inference research question in an IRT model-based framework becomes a model-based way to match subjects on estimates of their true ability. This model-based matching allows inferences to be made about a subject's performance as if they had been in the opposite treatment group. The IRT method is developed to combat existing methods' downfalls such as relying on conditional independence between pre-test scores and outcomes. Using simulation, the IRT method is compared to existing methods under two different model scenarios in terms of Type I and Type II errors. Then the method's parameter recovery is analyzed followed by accuracy of treatment effect evaluation. The IRT method is shown to out perform existing methods in an ability-based scenario. Finally, the IRT method is applied to real data assessing the impact of advanced STEM in high school on a students choice of major, and compared to existing alternative approaches

Predicting the composition of red wine blends using an array of Multicomponent peptide-based sensors

Differential sensing using synthetic receptors as mimics of the mammalian senses of taste and smell is a powerful approach for the analysis of complex mixtures. Herein, we report on the effectiveness of a cross-reactive, supramolecular, peptide-based sensing array in differentiating and predicting the composition of red wine blends. Fifteen blends of Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot and Cabernet Franc, in addition to the mono varietals, were used in this investigation. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) showed a clear differentiation of blends based on tannin concentration and composition where certain mono varietals like Cabernet Sauvignon seemed to contribute less to the overall characteristics of the blend. Partial Least Squares (PLS) Regression and cross validation were used to build a predictive model for the responses of the receptors to eleven binary blends and the three mono varietals. The optimized model was later used to predict the percentage of each mono varietal in an independent test set composted of four tri-blends with a 15% average error. A partial least square regression model using the mouth-feel and taste descriptive sensory attributes of the wine blends revealed a strong correlation of the receptors to perceived astringency, which is indicative of selective binding to polyphenols in wine

Sex impacts pain behaviour but not emotional reactivity of lambs following ring tail docking

Studies in humans have shown sex differences in response to painful events, however, little is known in relation to sex differences in sheep. Understanding sex differences would enable improved experimental design and interpretation of studies of painful procedures in sheep. To examine sex differences in response to pain, 80 lambs were tested across five cohorts of 16. The lambs were penned in groups containing two male and two female lambs with their respective mothers. Lambs were randomly allocated from within each block to one of four treatment groups" FRing–Female lamb, ring tail docked without analgesia, MRing–Male lamb, ring tail docked without analgesia, FSham–Female lamb, tail manipulated and MSham–Male lamb, tail manipulated. Following treatment, lambs were returned to their pen and were video recorded for 45 mins for behavioural observations of acute pain and posture. An hour after treatment, lambs then underwent an emotional reactivity test that consisted of three phases: Isolation, Novelty and Startle. Following treatment, Ring lambs displayed more abnormal postures (mean = 2.5 ± 0.5) compared to Sham lambs (mean = 0.05 ± 0.4, P = 0.0001). There was an effect of sex on the display of acute pain-related behaviours in lambs that were tail docked (P P = 0.99). During the Novelty and Startle phase of the emotional reactivity test, Ring lambs tended to (P = 0.084) or did (P = 0.018) show more fear related behaviours, respectively. However, no effect of sex was observed. The results of this study indicate that a pain state may alter the emotional response of lambs to novel objects and potential fearful situations. It was also demonstrated that female lambs display increased sensitivity to the acute pain caused by tail docking compared to males

Cross-sectional analysis of the humoral response after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in Sardinian multiple sclerosis patients, a follow-up study

Monitoring immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and its clinical efficacy over time in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients treated with disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) help to establish the optimal strategies to ensure adequate COVID-19 protection without compromising disease control offered by DMTs. Following our previous observations on the humoral response one month after two doses of BNT162b2 vaccine (T1) in MS patients differently treated, here we present a cross-sectional and longitudinal follow-up analysis six months following vaccination (T2, n=662) and one month following the first booster (T3, n=185). Consistent with results at T1, humoral responses were decreased in MS patients treated with fingolimod and anti-CD20 therapies compared with untreated patients also at the time points considered here (T2 and T3). Interestingly, a strong upregulation one month after the booster was observed in patients under every DMTs analyzed, including those treated with fingolimod and anti-CD20 therapies. Although patients taking these latter therapies had a higher rate of COVID-19 infection five months after the first booster, only mild symptoms that did not require hospitalization were reported for all the DMTs analyzed here. Based on these findings we anticipate that additional vaccine booster shots will likely further improve immune responses and COVID-19 protection in MS patients treated with any DMT

Targeting CD34(+) cells of the inflamed synovial endothelium by guided nanoparticles for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis

Despite the advances in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) achieved in the last few years, several patients are diagnosed late, do not respond to or have to stop therapy because of inefficacy and/or toxicity, leaving still a huge unmet need. Tissue-specific strategies have the potential to address some of these issues. The aim of the study is the development of a safe nanotechnology approach for tissue-specific delivery of drugs and diagnostic probes. CD34 + endothelial precursors were addressed in inflamed synovium using targeted biodegradable nanoparticles (tBNPs). These nanostructures were made of poly-lactic acid, poly-caprolactone, and PEG and then coated with a synovial homing peptide. Immunofluorescence analysis clearly demonstrated their capacity to selectively address CD34 + endothelial cells in synovial tissue obtained from human, mouse, and rat. Biodistribution studies in two different animal models of rheumatoid arthritis (antigen-induced arthritis/AIA and collagen-induced arthritis/CIA) confirmed the selective accumulation in inflamed joints but also evidenced the capacity of tBNP to detect early phases of the disease and the preferential liver elimination. The therapeutic effect of methotrexate (MTX)-loaded tBNPs were studied in comparison with conventional MTX doses. MTX-loaded tBNPs prevented and treated CIA and AIA at a lower dose and reduced administration frequency than MTX. Moreover, MTX-loaded tBNP showed a novel mechanism of action, in which the particles target and kill CD34 + endothelial progenitors, preventing neo-angiogenesis and, consequently, synovial inflammation. tBNPs represent a stable and safe platform to develop highly-sensitive imaging and therapeutic approaches in RA targeting specifically synovial neo-angiogenesis to reduce local inflammation

Crop pests and predators exhibit inconsistent responses to surrounding landscape composition

The idea that noncrop habitat enhances pest control and represents a win–win opportunity to conserve biodiversity and bolster yields has emerged as an agroecological paradigm. However, while noncrop habitat in landscapes surrounding farms sometimes benefits pest predators, natural enemy responses remain heterogeneous across studies and effects on pests are inconclusive. The observed heterogeneity in species responses to noncrop habitat may be biological in origin or could result from variation in how habitat and biocontrol are measured. Here, we use a pest-control database encompassing 132 studies and 6,759 sites worldwide to model natural enemy and pest abundances, predation rates, and crop damage as a function of landscape composition. Our results showed that although landscape composition explained significant variation within studies, pest and enemy abundances, predation rates, crop damage, and yields each exhibited different responses across studies, sometimes increasing and sometimes decreasing in landscapes with more noncrop habitat but overall showing no consistent trend. Thus, models that used landscape-composition variables to predict pest-control dynamics demonstrated little potential to explain variation across studies, though prediction did improve when comparing studies with similar crop and landscape features. Overall, our work shows that surrounding noncrop habitat does not consistently improve pest management, meaning habitat conservation may bolster production in some systems and depress yields in others. Future efforts to develop tools that inform farmers when habitat conservation truly represents a win–win would benefit from increased understanding of how landscape effects are modulated by local farm management and the biology of pests and their enemies

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI