Quantifying sources of methane using light alkanes in the Los Angeles basin, California

Methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and C2-C5 alkanes were measured throughout the Los Angeles (L.A.) basin in May and June 2010. We use these data to show that the emission ratios of CH4/CO and CH4/CO2 in the L.A. basin are larger than expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories, consistent with previously published work. We use experimentally determined CH4/CO and CH4/CO2 emission ratios in combination with annual State of California CO and CO2 inventories to derive a yearly emission rate of CH4 to the L.A. basin. We further use the airborne measurements to directly derive CH4 emission rates from dairy operations in Chino, and from the two largest landfills in the L.A. basin, and show these sources are accurately represented in the California Air Resources Board greenhouse gas inventory for CH4. We then use measurements of C2-C5 alkanes to quantify the relative contribution of other CH4 sources in the L.A. basin, with results differing from those of previous studies. The atmospheric data are consistent with the majority of CH4 emissions in the region coming from fugitive losses from natural gas in pipelines and urban distribution systems and/or geologic seeps, as well as landfills and dairies. The local oil and gas industry also provides a significant source of CH4 in the area. The addition of CH4 emissions from natural gas pipelines and urban distribution systems and/or geologic seeps and from the local oil and gas industry is sufficient to account for the differences between the top-down and bottom-up CH4 inventories identified in previously published work. Key PointsTop-down estimates of CH4 emissions in L.A. are greater than inventory estimatesEstimates of CH4 emissions from landfills in L.A. agree with CARB inventoryPipeline natural gas and/or seeps, and landfills are main sources of CH4 in L.A. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Genotype-Specific Evolution of Hepatitis E Virus

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is the most common cause of acute viral hepatitis globally. HEV comprises four genotypes with different geographic distributions and host ranges. We utilize this natural case-control study for investigating the evolution of zoonotic viruses compared to single-host viruses, using 244 near-full-length HEV genomes. Genome-wide estimates of the ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous evolutionary changes (dN/dS ratio) located a region of overlapping reading frames, which is subject to positive selection in genotypes 3 and 4. The open reading frames (ORFs) involved have functions related to host-pathogen interaction, so genotype-specific evolution of these regions may reflect their fitness. Bayesian inference of evolutionary rates shows that genotypes 3 and 4 have significantly higher rates than genotype 1 across all ORFs. Reconstruction of the phylogenies of zoonotic genotypes demonstrates significant intermingling of isolates between hosts. We speculate that the genotype-specific differences may result from cyclical adaptation to different hosts in genotypes 3 and 4.IMPORTANCE Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is increasingly recognized as a pathogen that affects both the developing and the developed world. While most often clinically mild, HEV can be severe or fatal in certain demographics, such as expectant mothers. Like many other viral pathogens, HEV has been classified into several distinct genotypes. We show that most of the HEV genome is evolutionarily constrained. One locus of positive selection is unusual in that it encodes two distinct protein products. We are the first to detect positive selection in this overlap region. Genotype 1, which infects humans only, appears to be evolving differently from genotypes 3 and 4, which infect multiple species, possibly because genotypes 3 and 4 are unable to achieve the same fitness due to repeated host jumps.This work was funded in part by a Medical Research Council Methodology Research Programme grant (MR/J013862/1) to SDWF, as well as by the Department of Pathology at the Unive rsity of Cambridge. SLKP and HyPhy development was supported by the US National Institutes of Health (grants GM093 939 and GM110749)

Determinants of adults' intention to vaccinate against pandemic swine flu

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Vaccination is one of the cornerstones of controlling an influenza pandemic. To optimise vaccination rates in the general population, ways of identifying determinants that influence decisions to have or not to have a vaccination need to be understood. Therefore, this study aimed to predict intention to have a swine influenza vaccination in an adult population in the UK. An extension of the Theory of Planned Behaviour provided the theoretical framework for the study. Methods: Three hundred and sixty two adults from the UK, who were not in vaccination priority groups, completed either an online (n = 306) or pen and paper (n = 56) questionnaire. Data were collected from 30th October 2009, just after swine flu vaccination became available in the UK, and concluded on 31st December 2009. The main outcome of interest was future swine flu vaccination intentions. Results: The extended Theory of Planned Behaviour predicted 60% of adults’ intention to have a swine flu vaccination with attitude, subjective norm, perceived control, anticipating feelings of regret (the impact of missing a vaccination opportunity), intention to have a seasonal vaccine this year, one perceived barrier: “I cannot be bothered to get a swine flu vaccination” and two perceived benefits: “vaccination decreases my chance of getting swine flu or its complications” and “if I get vaccinated for swine flu, I will decrease the frequency of having to consult my doctor,” being significant predictors of intention. Black British were less likely to intend to have a vaccination compared to Asian or White respondents. Conclusions: Theoretical frameworks which identify determinants that influence decisions to have a pandemic influenza vaccination are useful. The implications of this research are discussed with a view to maximising any future pandemic influenza vaccination uptake using theoretically-driven applications.This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund

Participatory Epidemiology: Use of Mobile Phones for Community-Based Health Reporting

Clark Freifeld and colleagues discuss mobile applications, including their own smartphone application, that show promise for health monitoring and information sharing

Vitamin D supplementation and breast cancer prevention : a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized clinical trials

In recent years, the scientific evidence linking vitamin D status or supplementation to breast cancer has grown notably. To investigate the role of vitamin D supplementation on breast cancer incidence, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials comparing vitamin D with placebo or no treatment. We used OVID to search MEDLINE (R), EMBASE and CENTRAL until April 2012. We screened the reference lists of included studies and used the “Related Article” feature in PubMed to identify additional articles. No language restrictions were applied. Two reviewers independently extracted data on methodological quality, participants, intervention, comparison and outcomes. Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals for breast cancer were pooled using a random-effects model. Heterogeneity was assessed using the I2 test. In sensitivity analysis, we assessed the impact of vitamin D dosage and mode of administration on treatment effects. Only two randomized controlled trials fulfilled the pre-set inclusion criteria. The pooled analysis included 5372 postmenopausal women. Overall, Risk Ratios and 95% Confident Intervals were 1.11 and 0.74–1.68. We found no evidence of heterogeneity. Neither vitamin D dosage nor mode of administration significantly affected breast cancer risk. However, treatment efficacy was somewhat greater when vitamin D was administered at the highest dosage and in combination with calcium (Risk Ratio 0.58, 95% Confident Interval 0.23–1.47 and Risk Ratio 0.93, 95% Confident Interval 0.54–1.60, respectively). In conclusions, vitamin D use seems not to be associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer development in postmenopausal women. However, the available evidence is still limited and inadequate to draw firm conclusions. Study protocol code: FARM8L2B5L

Survival trends for small intestinal cancer in England and Wales, 1971–1990: national population-based study

This population-based study examines prognostic factors and survival trends among adults (15–99 years) diagnosed with small intestinal cancer in England and Wales during 1971–1990 and followed up to 1995. During this period, the 1- and 5-year age-standardised relative survival rates for small intestinal cancers combined were 42% and 23%, respectively. Duodenal tumours, adenocarcinomas, men, patients with advanced age and the most deprived patients had the poorest prognosis. For all small bowel tumours combined, the excess risk of death fell significantly by 6–9% every 4 years over the 20-year period (adjusted excess hazard ratio (EHR) 0.91 at 1 year after diagnosis, 0.94 at 5 years). For duodenal tumours, the EHR fell by about 14% (95% CI 5–22%) every 4 years between 1979 and 1990, and a similar trend for jejunal tumours was of borderline significance. Further population-based investigations linking survival data to individual data on diagnostic methods and types of treatment are needed

Analysis of human immune responses in quasi-experimental settings: tutorial in biostatistics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Human immunology is a growing field of research in which experimental, clinical, and analytical methods of many life science disciplines are utilized. Classic epidemiological study designs, including observational longitudinal birth cohort studies, offer strong potential for gaining new knowledge and insights into immune response to pathogens in humans. However, rigorous discussion of methodological issues related to designs and statistical analysis that are appropriate for longitudinal studies is lacking.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this communication we address key questions of quality and validity of traditional and recently developed statistical tools applied to measures of immune responses. For this purpose we use data on humoral immune response (IR) associated with the first cryptosporidial diarrhea in a birth cohort of children residing in an urban slum in south India. The main objective is to detect the difference and derive inferences for a change in IR measured at two time points, before (pre) and after (post) an event of interest. We illustrate the use and interpretation of analytical and data visualization techniques including generalized linear and additive models, data-driven smoothing, and combinations of box-, scatter-, and needle-plots.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We provide step-by-step instructions for conducting a thorough and relatively simple analytical investigation, describe the challenges and pitfalls, and offer practical solutions for comprehensive examination of data. We illustrate how the assumption of time irrelevance can be handled in a study with a pre-post design. We demonstrate how one can study the dynamics of IR in humans by considering the timing of response following an event of interest and seasonal fluctuation of exposure by proper alignment of time of measurements. This alignment of calendar time of measurements and a child's age at the event of interest allows us to explore interactions between IR, seasonal exposures and age at first infection.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The use of traditional statistical techniques to analyze immunological data derived from observational human studies can result in loss of important information. Detailed analysis using well-tailored techniques allows the depiction of new features of immune response to a pathogen in longitudinal studies in humans. The proposed staged approach has prominent implications for future study designs and analyses.</p

Ethylenation of aldehydes to 3-propanal, propanol and propanoic acid derivatives

Methodology has been developed for the synthesis of 3-propanaldehydes through a five-step process in 11–67% yield from aldehydes. Aldehydes were reacted with Meldrum’s acid through a Knoevenagel condensation to give materials that upon reduction with sodium borohydride and subsequent hydrolysis decarboxylation generated the corresponding 3-propanoic acid derivatives. The -propanoic acid derivatives were reduced to give 3-propanol derivatives, which were readily oxidised to target 3-propanal derivatives