Modelling informative time points: an evolutionary process approach

Real time series sometimes exhibit various types of "irregularities": missing observations, observations collected not regularly over time for practical reasons, observation times driven by the series itself, or outlying observations. However, the vast majority of methods of time series analysis are designed for regular time series only. A particular case of irregularly spaced time series is that in which the sampling procedure over time depends also on the observed values. In such situations, there is stochastic dependence between the process being modelled and the times of the observations. In this work, we propose a model in which the sampling design depends on all past history of the observed processes. Taking into account the natural temporal order underlying available data represented by a time series, then a modelling approach based on evolutionary processes seems a natural choice. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. Numerical studies with simulated and real data sets are performed to illustrate the benefits of this model-based approach.- The authors acknowledge Foundation FCT (FundacAo para a Ciencia e Tecnologia) as members of the research project PTDC/MAT-STA/28243/2017 and Center for Research & Development in Mathematics and Applications of Aveiro University within project UID/MAT/04106/2019

A stochastic multiple mapping conditioning computational model in OpenFOAM for turbulent combustion

Computational models for combustion must account for complex and inherently interconnected physical processes including dispersion, mixing, chemical reactions, particulate nucleation and growth and, critically, the interactions of these with turbulence. The development of affordable and accurate models that are widely applicable is a work in progress. Stochastic multiple mapping conditioning (MMC) is a fast-emerging approach that has been successfully applied to non-premixed, premixed and partially premixed flames as well to the modelling of liquid and solid particulate synthesis. The method solves the conventional PDF transport equation but incorporates an additional constraint in that the mixing is localised in a reference space. This paper describes the numerical implementation of stochastic MMC in an OpenFOAM compatible code called mmcFoam. The model concepts and equations along with alternative submodels, code structure and numerical schemes are explained. A focus is placed on validation of the computational methods in particular demonstrating numerical convergence and mass consistency of the hybrid Eulerian/Lagrangian schemes. Four validation cases are selected including a combustion direct numerical simulation (DNS) case, two combustion experimental jet flame cases and a non-combusting particulate synthesis case. The results show that the total mass and mass distribution of Eulerian and Lagrangian schemes are consistent and confirm that the solutions numerically converge with increasing number of stochastic computational particles and sections for describing particulate size distribution

Impact of Carnivory on Human Development and Evolution Revealed by a New Unifying Model of Weaning in Mammals

Our large brain, long life span and high fertility are key elements of human evolutionary success and are often thought to have evolved in interplay with tool use, carnivory and hunting. However, the specific impact of carnivory on human evolution, life history and development remains controversial. Here we show in quantitative terms that dietary profile is a key factor influencing time to weaning across a wide taxonomic range of mammals, including humans. In a model encompassing a total of 67 species and genera from 12 mammalian orders, adult brain mass and two dichotomous variables reflecting species differences regarding limb biomechanics and dietary profile, accounted for 75.5%, 10.3% and 3.4% of variance in time to weaning, respectively, together capturing 89.2% of total variance. Crucially, carnivory predicted the time point of early weaning in humans with remarkable precision, yielding a prediction error of less than 5% with a sample of forty-six human natural fertility societies as reference. Hence, carnivory appears to provide both a necessary and sufficient explanation as to why humans wean so much earlier than the great apes. While early weaning is regarded as essentially differentiating the genus Homo from the great apes, its timing seems to be determined by the same limited set of factors in humans as in mammals in general, despite some 90 million years of evolution. Our analysis emphasizes the high degree of similarity of relative time scales in mammalian development and life history across 67 genera from 12 mammalian orders and shows that the impact of carnivory on time to weaning in humans is quantifiable, and critical. Since early weaning yields shorter interbirth intervals and higher rates of reproduction, with profound effects on population dynamics, our findings highlight the emergence of carnivory as a process fundamentally determining human evolution

Immunostimulatory Motifs Enhance Antiviral siRNAs Targeting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus is endemic in many regions around the world and remains a significant pandemic threat. To date H5N1 has claimed almost 300 human lives worldwide, with a mortality rate of 60% and has caused the death or culling of hundreds of millions of poultry since its initial outbreak in 1997. We have designed multi-functional RNA interference (RNAi)-based therapeutics targeting H5N1 that degrade viral mRNA via the RNAi pathway while at the same time augmenting the host antiviral response by inducing host type I interferon (IFN) production. Moreover, we have identified two factors critical for maximising the immunostimulatory properties of short interfering (si)RNAs in chicken cells (i) mode of synthesis and (ii) nucleoside sequence to augment the response to virus. The 5-bp nucleoside sequence 5′-UGUGU-3′ is a key determinant in inducing high levels of expression of IFN -α, -β, -λ and interleukin 1- β in chicken cells. Positioning of this 5′-UGUGU-3′ motif at the 5′- end of the sense strand of siRNAs, but not the 3′- end, resulted in a rapid and enhanced induction of type I IFN. An anti-H5N1 avian influenza siRNA directed against the PB1 gene (PB1-2257) tagged with 5′-UGUGU-3′ induced type I IFN earlier and to a greater extent compared to a non-tagged PB1-2257. Tested against H5N1 in vitro, the tagged PB1-2257 was more effective than non-tagged PB1-2257. These data demonstrate the ability of an immunostimulatory motif to improve the performance of an RNAi-based antiviral, a finding that may influence the design of future RNAi-based anti-influenza therapeutics

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Selection on Alleles Affecting Human Longevity and Late-Life Disease: The Example of Apolipoprotein E

It is often claimed that genes affecting health in old age, such as cardiovascular and Alzheimer diseases, are beyond the reach of natural selection. We show in a simulation study based on known genetic (apolipoprotein E) and non-genetic risk factors (gender, diet, smoking, alcohol, exercise) that, because there is a statistical distribution of ages at which these genes exert their influence on morbidity and mortality, the effects of selection are in fact non-negligible. A gradual increase with each generation of the ε2 and ε3 alleles of the gene at the expense of the ε4 allele was predicted from the model. The ε2 allele frequency was found to increase slightly more rapidly than that for ε3, although there was no statistically significant difference between the two. Our result may explain the recent evolutionary history of the epsilon 2, 3 and 4 alleles of the apolipoprotein E gene and has wider relevance for genes affecting human longevity