Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)

Epithelioma of Malherbe: new ultrasound patterns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Backround</p> <p>Calcifying epithelioma of Malherbe, or Pilomatricoma, is considered an uncommon cutaneous neoplasia, normally occurring in children as a solitary, firm, asymptomatic, hard, subcutaneous, slowly growing nodule on the face, neck, or proximal upper extremity. In literature, two Pilomatricoma ultrasound patterns are described: the totally calcified nodule and the hypoechoic nodule with internal calcific foci. High frequency ultrasound has not yet been applied for routine diagnosis of Pilomatricoma. The aim of the study was to retrospectively identify specific ultrasound features.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We retrieved 124 histologically Pilomatricoma cases: 28 patients with 32 lesions were preoperatively evaluated with ultrasound.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>22/32 have shown a solid formation, hypoechoic, with a sharp outline. Of these 22, 10 lesions were completely calcifying and 12 partially calcified. In 3/32 lesions with uncertain diagnosis, ultrasounds showed a complex/mixed pattern with pseudo-fluid areas and microspots. 7/32 lesions with US different diagnosis included 3 complex lesions, 2 cystic lesions and 2 solid nodular lesions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In addition to well-known ultrasound patterns (completely calcified and partially calcified) we identified three new, not yet described, patterns that constitute the 31% of the cases: complex, pseudocistyc and pseudotumoral.</p

Understanding Marine Mussel Adhesion

In addition to identifying the proteins that have a role in underwater adhesion by marine mussels, research efforts have focused on identifying the genes responsible for the adhesive proteins, environmental factors that may influence protein production, and strategies for producing natural adhesives similar to the native mussel adhesive proteins. The production-scale availability of recombinant mussel adhesive proteins will enable researchers to formulate adhesives that are water-impervious and ecologically safe and can bind materials ranging from glass, plastics, metals, and wood to materials, such as bone or teeth, biological organisms, and other chemicals or molecules. Unfortunately, as of yet scientists have been unable to duplicate the processes that marine mussels use to create adhesive structures. This study provides a background on adhesive proteins identified in the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, and introduces our research interests and discusses the future for continued research related to mussel adhesion

Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

© 2008 Author et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Health 7 (2008): S5, doi:10.1186/1476-069X-7-S2-S5.Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs). Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.The authors acknowledge the financial support for the NSF/NIEHS and NOAA Centers for Oceans and Human Healt

A critical review of mathematical models and data used in diabetology

The literature dealing with mathematical modelling for diabetes is abundant. During the last decades, a variety of models have been devoted to different aspects of diabetes, including glucose and insulin dynamics, management and complications prevention, cost and cost-effectiveness of strategies and epidemiology of diabetes in general. Several reviews are published regularly on mathematical models used for specific aspects of diabetes. In the present paper we propose a global overview of mathematical models dealing with many aspects of diabetes and using various tools. The review includes, side by side, models which are simple and/or comprehensive; deterministic and/or stochastic; continuous and/or discrete; using ordinary differential equations, partial differential equations, optimal control theory, integral equations, matrix analysis and computer algorithms

The Nature of Knowledge in Composition and Literary Understanding: The Question of Specificity

↵PETER SMAGORINSKY is Assistant Professor, College of Education, University of Oklahoma, 820 Van Vleet Oval, Norman, OK 73019-0. He specializes in classroom literacy.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

Methodology of calculation of construction and hydrodynamic parameters of a foam layer apparatus for mass-transfer processes

Промислова реалізація методу стабілізації газорідинного шару дозволяє значно розширити галузь застосування пінних апаратів і відкриває нові можливості інтенсифікації технологічних процесів з одночасним створенням маловідходних технологій. У статті встановлені основні параметри, що впливають на гідродинаміку пінних апаратів, розглянуті основні конструкції та режими роботи пінних апаратів. Виявлено зв'язок гідродинамічних параметрів. Розглянуто гідродинамічні закономірності пінного шару. Вказані фактори, що впливають на процес масообміну, як в газовій, так і в рідкій фазах. Проведений аналіз ряду досліджень показав, що перспективним напрямком інтенсифікації процесу масообміну є розробка апаратів з трифазним псевдозрідженим шаром зрошуваної насадки складних форм із сітчастих матеріалів. Отже, необхідне проведення спеціальних досліджень гідродинамічних режимів роботи апарату з сітчастою насадкою і визначенням параметрів, що впливають на швидкість переходу насадки з одного режиму в інший.Industrial implementation of the stabilization method of the gas-liquid layer can significantly expand the field of use of foaming apparatus and opens up new opportunities for intensifying technological processes with the simultaneous creation of low-waste technologies. The article establishes the basic parameters influencing the hydrodynamics of foam apparatus, considers the basic constructions and operating modes of foam apparatus. The connection of hydrodynamic parameters is revealed. The hydrodynamic laws of the foam layer are considered. The indicated factors affecting the process of mass transfer, both in the gas and in the liquid phases. The conducted analysis of a number of studies showed that the perspective direction of intensification of the mass transfer process is the development of apparatuses with a three-phase fluidized bed of an irrigated nozzle of complex forms with mesh materials

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe