Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Decolorization and partial mineralization of a polyazo dye by Bacillus firmus immobilized within tubular polymeric gel

The degradation of C.I. Direct red 80, a polyazo dye, was investigated using Bacillus firmus immobilized by entrapment in tubular polymeric gel. This bacterial strain was able to completely decolorize 50 mg/L of C.I. Direct red 80 under anoxic conditions within 12 h and also degrade the reaction intermediates (aromatic amines) during the subsequent 12 h under aerobic conditions. The tubular gel harboring the immobilized cells consisted of anoxic and aerobic regions integrated in a single unit which was ideal for azo dye degradation studies. Results obtained show that effective dye decolorization (97.8%), chemical oxygen demand (COD) reduction (91.7%) and total aromatic amines removal were obtained in 15 h with the immobilized bacterial cell system whereas for the free cells, a hydraulic residence time of 24 h was required for an equivalent performance in a sequential anoxic and aerobic process. Repeated-batch experiments indicate the immobilized cells could decolorize C.I. Direct red 80 and reduce medium COD in five successive batch runs with enhanced activity obtained after each consecutive run, thus suggesting its stability and potential for repeated use in wastewater treatment. UV–visible spectrophotometry and HPLC analysis were used to confirm the partial mineralization of the dye. Data from this study could be used as a reference for the development of effective industrial scale biotechnological process for the removal of dyes and their metabolites in textile wastewater

2017 HRS/EHRA/ECAS/APHRS/SOLAECE expert consensus statement on catheter and surgical ablation of atrial fibrillation: executive summary.

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Operation and performance of the ATLAS Tile Calorimeter in Run 1

The Tile Calorimeter is the hadron calorimeter covering the central region of the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Approximately 10,000 photomultipliers collect light from scintillating tiles acting as the active material sandwiched between slabs of steel absorber. This paper gives an overview of the calorimeter’s performance during the years 2008–2012 using cosmic-ray muon events and proton–proton collision data at centre-of-mass energies of 7 and 8TeV with a total integrated luminosity of nearly 30 fb−1. The signal reconstruction methods, calibration systems as well as the detector operation status are presented. The energy and time calibration methods performed excellently, resulting in good stability of the calorimeter response under varying conditions during the LHC Run 1. Finally, the Tile Calorimeter response to isolated muons and hadrons as well as to jets from proton–proton collisions is presented. The results demonstrate excellent performance in accord with specifications mentioned in the Technical Design Report

Performance of missing transverse momentum reconstruction with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The performance of the missing transverse momentum (EmissT) reconstruction with the ATLAS detector is evaluated using data collected in proton–proton collisions at the LHC at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 2015. To reconstruct EmissT, fully calibrated electrons, muons, photons, hadronically decaying τ -leptons, and jets reconstructed from calorimeter energy deposits and charged-particle tracks are used. These are combined with the soft hadronic activity measured by reconstructed charged-particle tracks not associated with the hard objects. Possible double counting of contributions from reconstructed charged-particle tracks from the inner detector, energy deposits in the calorimeter, and reconstructed muons from the muon spectrometer is avoided by applying a signal ambiguity resolution procedure which rejects already used signals when combining the various EmissT contributions. The individual terms as well as the overall reconstructed EmissT are evaluated with various performance metrics for scale (linearity), resolution, and sensitivity to the data-taking conditions. The method developed to determine the systematic uncertainties of the EmissT scale and resolution is discussed. Results are shown based on the full 2015 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb−1

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Search for squarks and gluinos in final states with jets and missing transverse momentum using 139 fb−1 of s√ = 13 TeV pp collision data with the ATLAS detector

A search for the supersymmetric partners of quarks and gluons (squarks and gluinos) in final states containing jets and missing transverse momentum, but no electrons or muons, is presented. The data used in this search were recorded by the ATLAS experiment in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of s√ = 13 TeV during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb−1. The results are interpreted in the context of various R-parity-conserving models where squarks and gluinos are produced in pairs or in association and a neutralino is the lightest supersymmetric particle. An exclusion limit at the 95% confidence level on the mass of the gluino is set at 2.30 TeV for a simplified model containing only a gluino and the lightest neutralino, assuming the latter is massless. For a simplified model involving the strong production of mass-degenerate first- and second-generation squarks, squark masses below 1.85 TeV are excluded if the lightest neutralino is massless. These limits extend substantially beyond the region of supersymmetric parameter space excluded previously by similar searches with the ATLAS detector

Measurement of Azimuthal Anisotropy of Muons from Charm and Bottom Hadrons in pp Collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

The elliptic flow of muons from the decay of charm and bottom hadrons is measured in p p collisions at √ s = 13     TeV using a data sample with an integrated luminosity of 150     pb − 1 recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The muons from heavy-flavor decay are separated from light-hadron decay muons using momentum imbalance between the tracking and muon spectrometers. The heavy-flavor decay muons are further separated into those from charm decay and those from bottom decay using the distance-of-closest-approach to the collision vertex. The measurement is performed for muons in the transverse momentum range 4–7 GeV and pseudorapidity range | η | < 2.4 . A significant nonzero elliptic anisotropy coefficient v 2 is observed for muons from charm decays, while the v 2 value for muons from bottom decays is consistent with zero within uncertainties