Multiplicative random walk Metropolis-Hastings on the real line

In this article we propose multiplication based random walk Metropolis Hastings (MH) algorithm on the real line. We call it the random dive MH (RDMH) algorithm. This algorithm, even if simple to apply, was not studied earlier in Markov chain Monte Carlo literature. The associated kernel is shown to have standard properties like irreducibility, aperiodicity and Harris recurrence under some mild assumptions. These ensure basic convergence (ergodicity) of the kernel. Further the kernel is shown to be geometric ergodic for a large class of target densities on $\mathbb{R}$. This class even contains realistic target densities for which random walk or Langevin MH are not geometrically ergodic. Three simulation studies are given to demonstrate the mixing property and superiority of RDMH to standard MH algorithms on real line. A share-price return data is also analyzed and the results are compared with those available in the literature

The JCMT Legacy Survey of the Gould Belt: Mapping 13CO and C 18O in Orion A

The Gould Belt Legacy Survey will map star-forming regions within 500 pc, using Heterodyne Array Receiver Programme (HARP), Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array 2 (SCUBA-2) and Polarimeter 2 (POL-2) on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT). This paper describes HARP observations of the J= 3 → 2 transitions of 13CO and C18O towards Orion A. The 15 arcsec resolution observations cover 5 pc of the Orion filament, including OMC 1 (including BN–KL and Orion bar), OMC 2/3 and OMC 4, and allow a comparative study of the molecular gas properties throughout the star-forming cloud. The filament shows a velocity gradient of ∼1 km s−1 pc−1 between OMC 1, 2 and 3, and high-velocity emission is detected in both isotopologues. The Orion Nebula and Bar have the largest masses and linewidths, and dominate the mass and energetics of the high-velocity material. Compact, spatially resolved emission from CH3CN, 13CH3OH, SO, HCOOCH3, CH3CHO and CH3OCHO is detected towards the Orion Hot Core. The cloud is warm, with a median excitation temperature of ∼24 K; the Orion Bar has the highest excitation temperature gas, at >80 K. The C18O excitation temperature correlates well with the dust temperature (to within 40 per cent). The C18O emission is optically thin, and the 13CO emission is marginally optically thick; despite its high mass, OMC 1 shows the lowest opacities. A virial analysis indicates that Orion A is too massive for thermal or turbulent support, but is consistent with a model of a filamentary cloud that is threaded by helical magnetic fields. The variation of physical conditions across the cloud is reflected in the physical characteristics of the dust cores. We find similar core properties between starless and protostellar cores, but variations in core properties with position in the filament. The OMC 1 cores have the highest velocity dispersions and masses, followed by OMC 2/3 and OMC 4. The differing fragmentation of these cores may explain why OMC 1 has formed clusters of high-mass stars, whereas OMC 4 produces fewer, predominantly low-mass stars

Work-life conflict and musculoskeletal disorders: a cross-sectional study of an unexplored association

BACKGROUND: The health consequences of work-family or rather work-life conflict (WLC) have been studied by numerous researchers. The work-related causes of musculoskeletal disorders (MSD) are also well explored. And stress (at work) has been found to be a consequence of WLC as well as a cause of MSD. But very little is known about a potential association between WLC and MSD and the possible mediating role of stress in this relationship. METHODS: Survey data collected in 2007 among the workforces of four large companies in Switzerland were used for this study. The study population covered 6091 employees. As the exposure variable and hypothesized risk factor for MSD, WLC was measured by using a 10-item scale based on an established 18-item scale on work-family conflict. The outcome variables used as indicators of MSD were (low) back pain and neck/shoulder pain. Stress as the assumed intervening variable was assessed by a validated single-item measure of general stress perception. Correlation coefficients (r), standardized regression coefficients (beta) and multiple adjusted odds ratios (OR) were calculated as measures of association. RESULTS: WLC was found to be quite strongly associated with MSD (beta=.21). This association turned out to be substantially confounded by physical strain at work, workload and job autonomy and was considerably reduced but far from being completely eliminated after adjusting for general stress as another identified risk factor of MSD and a proven strong correlate of WLC (r=.44). A significant and relevant association still remained (beta=.10) after having controlled for all considered covariates. This association could be fully attributed to only one direction of WLC, namely the work-to-life conflict. In subsequent analyses, a clear gradient between this WLC direction and both types of MSD was found, and proved to be consistent for both men and women. Employees who were most exposed to such work-to-life conflict were also most at risk and showed a fivefold higher prevalence rate (19%-42%) and also an up to sixfold increased relative risk (OR=3.8-6.3) of suffering greatly from these types of MSD compared with the least exposed reference group showing very low WLC in this direction. Including stress in the regression models again reduced the strength of the association significantly (OR=1.9-4.1), giving an indication for a possible indirect effect of WLC on MSD mediated by stress. CONCLUSION: Future research and workplace interventions for the prevention of MSD need to consider WLC as an important stressor, and the MSD risk factor identified in this study

The Alchemist

JOURThis is the final version of the article. It was first published by IOP Publishing for the Royal Astronomical Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/817/2/167We present a first look at the SCUBA-2 observations of three sub-regions of the Orion B molecular cloud: LDN 1622, NGC 2023/2024, and NGC 2068/2071, from the JCMT Gould Belt Legacy Survey. We identify 29, 564, and 322 dense cores in L1622, NGC 2023/2024, and NGC 2068/2071 respectively, using the SCUBA-2 850 μm map, and present their basic properties, including their peak fluxes, total fluxes, and sizes, and an estimate of the corresponding 450 μm peak fluxes and total fluxes, using the FellWalker source extraction algorithm. Assuming a constant temperature of 20 K, the starless dense cores have a mass function similar to that found in previous dense core analyses, with a Salpeter-like slope at the high-mass end. The majority of cores appear stable to gravitational collapse when considering only thermal pressure; indeed, most of the cores which have masses above the thermal Jeans mass are already associated with at least one protostar. At higher cloud column densities, above 1–2 × 1023 cm‑2, most of the mass is found within dense cores, while at lower cloud column densities, below 1 × 1023 cm‑2, this fraction drops to 10% or lower. Overall, the fraction of dense cores associated with a protostar is quite small (<8%), but becomes larger for the densest and most centrally concentrated cores. NGC 2023/2024 and NGC 2068/2071 appear to be on the path to forming a significant number of stars in the future, while L1622 has little additional mass in dense cores to form many new stars

The JCMT Plane Survey: early results from the l = 30 degree field

We present early results from the JCMT Plane Survey (JPS), which has surveyed the northern inner Galactic plane between longitudes l=7 and l=63 degrees in the 850-{\mu}m continuum with SCUBA-2, as part of the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope Legacy Survey programme. Data from the l=30 degree survey region, which contains the massive star-forming regions W43 and G29.96, are analysed after approximately 40% of the observations had been completed. The pixel-to-pixel noise is found to be 19 mJy/beam, after a smooth over the beam area, and the projected equivalent noise levels in the final survey are expected to be around 10 mJy/beam. An initial extraction of compact sources was performed using the FellWalker method resulting in the detection of 1029 sources above a 5-{\sigma} surface-brightness threshold. The completeness limits in these data are estimated to be around 0.2 Jy/beam (peak flux density) and 0.8 Jy (integrated flux density) and are therefore probably already dominated by source confusion in this relatively crowded section of the survey. The flux densities of extracted compact sources are consistent with those of matching detections in the shallower ATLASGAL survey. We analyse the virial and evolutionary state of the detected clumps in the W43 star-forming complex and find that they appear younger than the Galactic-plane average

Chromatin compaction in terminally differentiated avian blood cells: the role of linker histone H5 and non-histone protein MENT

Chromatin has a tendency to shift from a relatively decondensed (active) to condensed (inactive) state during cell differentiation due to interactions of specific architectural and/or regulatory proteins with DNA. A promotion of chromatin folding in terminally differentiated avian blood cells requires the presence of either histone H5 in erythrocytes or non-histone protein, myeloid and erythroid nuclear termination stage-specific protein (MENT), in white blood cells (lymphocytes and granulocytes). These highly abundant proteins assist in folding of nucleosome arrays and self-association of chromatin fibers into compacted chromatin structures. Here, we briefly review structural aspects and molecular mode of action by which these unrelated proteins can spread condensed chromatin to form inactivated regions in the genome

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p