Statistical modelling of collective animal movement: with an application to reindeer movement in northern Sweden

The ways in which animals move are a complex phenomena, from small scale interactions to larger migratory movement. Internal and external stimuli govern a variety of behavioural patterns whose processes are vital for species survival. Analysing these movement and behavioural processes can have significant applications for conservation and management. Although there are many statistical tools readily available for investigating animal movement, they are largely directed towards individual-level cases and do not consider the group movement present in collective species such as ungulates. This thesis aims to redress the shortcomings of statistical literature by providing a modelling framework for collective animal movement in continuous time. Our modelling approach builds upon general themes of group movement originally put forward by Langrock et al. (2014), where each individual in the group is at times attracted to an unobserved leading point. However, the behaviour of each individual can switch between ‘following the group’ and ‘moving independently’, modelled as an Ornstein Uhlenbeck process and Brownian motion respectively. The movement of the leading point is also modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process or, if we forgo the leader’s drift term, as Brownian motion. An inhomogeneous Kalman filter Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate the diffusion and switching parameters and the behavioural states of each individual at a given time point. We assess the model’s performance in a variety of simulated settings before providing a real world application using the location data of semi-domesticated reindeer (rangifer tarandus). We extend this methodology by allowing switching to depend explicitly on covariate information. We define a general auxiliary model for the inclusion of covariate data which accounts for a wide range of environmental heterogeneity. We give a simulated illustration where the animals switch behaviour sinusoidally depending on the time of day. Then, we revisit the reindeer application by including covariate data on insect harassment, which is thought to influence reindeer movement

Ruminal Motility and Bloat Potential of Wheat Pasture Stockers

Animal Scienc

Integrated Population Models: Achieving their Potential

Precise and accurate estimates of abundance and demographic rates are primary quantities of interest within wildlife conservation and management. Such quantities provide insight into population trends over time and the associated underlying ecological drivers of the systems. This information is fundamental in managing ecosystems, assessing species conservation status and developing and implementing effective conservation policy. Observational monitoring data are typically collected on wildlife populations using an array of different survey protocols, dependent on the primary questions of interest. For each of these survey designs, a range of advanced statistical techniques have been developed which are typically well understood. However, often multiple types of data may exist for the same population under study. Analyzing each data set separately implicitly discards the common information contained in the other data sets. An alternative approach that aims to optimize the shared information contained within multiple data sets is to use a “model-based data integration” approach, or more commonly referred to as an “integrated model.” This integrated modeling approach simultaneously analyzes all the available data within a single, and robust, statistical framework. This paper provides a statistical overview of ecological integrated models, with a focus on integrated population models (IPMs) which include abundance and demographic rates as quantities of interest. Four main challenges within this area are discussed, namely model specification, computational aspects, model assessment and forecasting. This should encourage researchers to explore further and develop new practical tools to ensure that full utility can be made of IPMs for future studies

Evidence for Transmission of Bluetongue Virus Serotype 26 through Direct Contact

The aim of this study was to assess the mechanisms of transmission of bluetongue virus serotype 26 (BTV-26) in goats. A previous study, which investigated the pathogenicity and infection kinetics of BTV-26 in goats, unexpectedly revealed that one control goat may have been infected through a direct contact transmission route. To investigate the transmission mechanisms of BTV-26 in more detail an experimental infection study was carried out in which three goats were infected with BTV-26, three goats were kept uninfected, but were housed in direct contact with the infected goats, and an additional four goats were kept in indirect contact separated from infected goats by metal gates. This barrier allowed the goats to have occasional face-to-face contact in the same airspace, but feeding, watering, sampling and environmental cleaning was carried out separately. The three experimentally infected goats did not show clinical signs of BTV, however high levels of viral RNA were detected and virus was isolated from their blood. At 21 dpi viral RNA was detected in, and virus was isolated from the blood of the three direct contact goats, which also seroconverted. The four indirect barrier contact goats remained uninfected throughout the duration of the experiment. In order to assess replication in a laboratory model species of Culicoides biting midge, more than 300 Culicoides sonorensis were fed a BTV-26 spiked blood meal and incubated for 7 days. The dissemination of BTV-26 in individual C. sonorensis was inferred from the quantity of virus RNA and indicated that none of the insects processed at day 7 possessed transmissible infections. This study shows that BTV-26 is easily transmitted through direct contact transmission between goats, and the strain does not seem to replicate in C. sonorensis midges using standard incubation conditions

The Transnational Mission of an Indian War Correspondent: P. R. S. Mani in Southeast Asia, 1944–1946

This article, based on new archival materials, reconstructs the experiences and observations of an Indian war correspondent from 1944 to 1946 as he covered the advance of Indian soldiers of the British-led Indian Army from northeast India, through Burma to Malaya at the war's end, then to their eventual deployment with the South East Asian Command in Java after the Japanese surrender. As it transpired, Captain P. R. S. Mani worked as an enlisted public relations officer of the British-led Indian Army but also sustained his commitment as a patriotic Indian nationalist, who gathered intelligence on the Indian diaspora in Southeast Asia and on the impact of Subhas Chandra Bose's Indian National Army. Relatively little scholarship has focused on Asian war journalism. Mani's tension-ridden role as a self-styled ‘Indian Army observer’ provides an illuminating insight into the way in which Britain's lines of communication were appropriated and subverted during wartime and beyond, and into the way his own nationalism was reshaped by his unofficial transnational activities

Avoiding bias in estimates of population size for translocation management

Mark–recapture surveys are commonly used to monitor translocated populations globally. Data gathered are then used to estimate demographic parameters, such as abundance and survival, using Jolly–Seber (JS) models. However, in translocated populations initial population size is known and failure to account for this may bias parameter estimates, which are important for informing conservation decisions during population establishment. Here, we provide methods to account for known initial population size in JS models by incorporating a separate component likelihood for translocated individuals, using a maximum‐likelihood estimation, with models that can be fitted using either R or MATLAB. We use simulated data and a case study of a threatened lizard species with low capture probability to demonstrate that unconstrained JS models may overestimate the size of translocated populations, especially in the early stages of post‐release monitoring. Our approach corrects this bias; we use our simulations to demonstrate that overestimates of population size between 78% and 130% can occur in the unconstrained JS models when the detection probability is below 0.3 compared to 1%–8.9% for our constrained model. Our case study did not show an overestimate; however accounting for the initial population size greatly reduced error in all parameter estimates and prevented boundary estimates. Adopting the corrected JS model for translocations will help managers to obtain more robust estimates of the population sizes of translocated animals, better informing future management including reinforcement decisions, and ultimately improving translocation success

A systematic map of studies testing the relationship between temperature and animal reproduction

Funding: This work was funded by the European Society for Evolution (which funds a Special Topic Network on Evolutionary Ecology of Thermal Fertility Limits to CF, AB, RRS and TARP), the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P002692/1 to TARP, AB and RRS, NE/X011550/1 to LRD and TARP), the Biotechnology and \Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/W016753/1 to AB, TARP and RRS) and a Heisenberg fellowship from the German Research Foundation (FR 2973/11-1 to CF).1. Exposure to extreme temperatures can negatively affect animal reproduction, by disrupting the ability of individuals to produce any offspring (fertility), or the number of offspring produced by fertile individuals (fecundity). This has important ecological consequences, because reproduction is the ultimate measure of population fitness: a reduction in reproductive output lowers the population growth rate and increases the extinction risk. Despite this importance, there have been no large‐scale summaries of the evidence for effect of temperature on reproduction. 2. We provide a systematic map of studies testing the relationship between temperature and animal reproduction. We systematically searched for published studies that statistically test for a direct link between temperature and animal reproduction, in terms of fertility, fecundity or indirect measures of reproductive potential (gamete and gonad traits). 3. Overall, we collated a large and rich evidence base, with 1654 papers that met our inclusion criteria, encompassing 1191 species. 4. The map revealed several important research gaps. Insects made up almost half of the dataset, but reptiles and amphibians were uncommon, as were non‐arthropod invertebrates. Fecundity was the most common reproductive trait examined, and relatively few studies measured fertility. It was uncommon for experimental studies to test exposure of different life stages, exposure to short‐term heat or cold shock, exposure to temperature fluctuations, or to independently assess male and female effects. Studies were most often published in journals focusing on entomology and pest control, ecology and evolution, aquaculture and fisheries science, and marine biology. Finally, while individuals were sampled from every continent, there was a strong sampling bias towards mid‐latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, such that the tropics and polar regions are less well sampled. 5. This map reveals a rich literature of studies testing the relationship between temperature and animal reproduction, but also uncovers substantial missing treatment of taxa, traits, and thermal regimes. This database will provide a valuable resource for future quantitative meta‐analyses, and direct future studies aiming to fill identified gaps.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Daily Sampling of an HIV-1 Patient with Slowly Progressing Disease Displays Persistence of Multiple env Subpopulations Consistent with Neutrality

The molecular evolution of HIV-1 is characterized by frequent substitutions, indels and recombination events. In addition, a HIV-1 population may adapt through frequency changes of its variants. To reveal such population dynamics we analyzed HIV-1 subpopulation frequencies in an untreated patient with stable, low plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and close to normal CD4+ T-cell levels. The patient was intensively sampled during a 32-day period as well as approximately 1.5 years before and after this period (days −664, 1, 2, 3, 11, 18, 25, 32 and 522). 77 sequences of HIV-1 env (approximately 3100 nucleotides) were obtained from plasma by limiting dilution with 7–11 sequences per time point, except day −664. Phylogenetic analysis using maximum likelihood methods showed that the sequences clustered in six distinct subpopulations. We devised a method that took into account the relatively coarse sampling of the population. Data from days 1 through 32 were consistent with constant within-patient subpopulation frequencies. However, over longer time periods, i.e. between days 1…32 and 522, there were significant changes in subpopulation frequencies, which were consistent with evolutionarily neutral fluctuations. We found no clear signal of natural selection within the subpopulations over the study period, but positive selection was evident on the long branches that connected the subpopulations, which corresponds to >3 years as the subpopulations already were established when we started the study. Thus, selective forces may have been involved when the subpopulations were established. Genetic drift within subpopulations caused by de novo substitutions could be resolved after approximately one month. Overall, we conclude that subpopulation frequencies within this patient changed significantly over a time period of 1.5 years, but that this does not imply directional or balancing selection. We show that the short-term evolution we study here is likely representative for many patients of slow and normal disease progression

The Population Genetics of dN/dS

Evolutionary pressures on proteins are often quantified by the ratio of substitution rates at non-synonymous and synonymous sites. The dN/dS ratio was originally developed for application to distantly diverged sequences, the differences among which represent substitutions that have fixed along independent lineages. Nevertheless, the dN/dS measure is often applied to sequences sampled from a single population, the differences among which represent segregating polymorphisms. Here, we study the expected dN/dS ratio for samples drawn from a single population under selection, and we find that in this context, dN/dS is relatively insensitive to the selection coefficient. Moreover, the hallmark signature of positive selection over divergent lineages, dN/dS>1, is violated within a population. For population samples, the relationship between selection and dN/dS does not follow a monotonic function, and so it may be impossible to infer selection pressures from dN/dS. These results have significant implications for the interpretation of dN/dS measurements among population-genetic samples

Search for black holes and other new phenomena in high-multiplicity final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe