Future-proofing conservation: applying systematic conservation planning to prevent extinction under climate and land use change

Humans have been reshaping the environment of Earth for thousands of years. However, the intensity of anthropogenic pressures has rapidly increased in recent decades, pushing an evergreater number of species towards extinction. The primary driver of modern extinctions is habitat loss, while climate change is projected to become the leading cause of biodiversity loss in the future. To mitigate these impacts and reverse these trends, nations have committed to halt the extinction of threatened species by mid-century, and to protect 30% of global land and sea by 2030 (known as the ‘30 by 30’ target). There is now an urgent need to understand how such targets can be achieved in a way that is deliverable, effective, and resilient to future climate and land use change. To answer this question, my thesis considers how systematic conservation planning approaches can optimise conservation interventions both in situ (such as protected area planning) and ex situ (such as conservation of threatened species in zoos). I show that both existing protected areas and current zoo collections must evolve significantly if they are to avoid being outpaced by anthropogenic environmental change. First, I model the impact of climate change on most of the world’s terrestrial vertebrate species (n = 24,598), and identify spatial and phylogenetic shifts in the distribution of threatened biodiversity globally. Using these data, I highlight spatial priorities for area-based conservation, achieving 30 by 30 in a manner that maximises the long-term conservation of threatened evolutionary history under environmental change. I then turn to ex situ conservation in zoos, finding that collections must adapt significantly if they are to conserve the taxa most threatened by climate and land use change. As zoos must house appealing species that drive visitation rates, I then investigate the traits that underpin species attractiveness to zoo visitors, with highly active, visible mammals proving the most attractive. I use these results to highlight opportunities to leverage species appeal and maximise investment in conservation. Finally, I bring this information together and apply, for the first time, conservation optimisation algorithms to zoo collection planning at global and regional scales. Such approaches can increase the protection of threatened evolutionary history by approximately an order of magnitude, both in situ and ex situ, relative to existing protected areas and zoo collections, respectively. These results pose both a challenge and an opportunity to the conservation community, highlighting both the scale of adaptation required, but also the huge potential conservation benefits that could be achieved, even as anthropogenic climate and land use change intensify

Использование растровых графических редакторов для обработки археологических материалов

В данной работе предлагается к рассмотрению компьютерная графика в качестве инструмента для создания стратиграфических чертежей и приводится краткое описание технологии, которая сегодня широко используется при составлении отчетов многих археологических экспедиций в Крыму

Достаточные условия стойкости рандомизированных блочных cистем шифрования относительно метода криптоанализа на основе коммутативных диаграмм

Получены достаточные условия отсутствия определенных нетривиальных конгруэнций многоосновных алгебр, описывающих рандомизированные блочные системы шифрования, соответствующие SPN-подобным шифрам или шифрам Фейстеля. Указанные условия исключают возможность применения к таким системам шифрования метода криптоанализа на основе коммутативных диаграмм.Отримано достатні умови відсутності певних нетривіальних конгруенцій багатоосновних універсальних алгебр, що описують рандомізовані блокові системи шифрування, які відповідають SPN-подібним шифрам або шифрам Фейстеля. Зазначені умови виключають можливість застосування до таких систем шифрування методу криптоаналізу на основі комутативних діаграм.Sufficient conditions for the non-existence of certain nontrivial congruences of many-sorted universal algebras, that describe randomized block cipher systems based on the SPN-like ciphers or on Feistel ciphers, are obtained. These conditions guarantee that such cipher systems are secure against commutative diagram attacks

В портфеле редакции

OBJECTIVE Our aim is to compare the effect of type 2 diabetes on recurrent major cardiovascular events (MCVE) for patients with symptomatic vascular disease at different locations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 6,841 patients from the single-center, prospective Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort study from Utrecht, the Netherlands, with clinically manifest vascular disease with (n = 1,155) and without (n = 5,686) type 2 diabetes were monitored between 1996 and 2013. The effect of type 2 diabetes on recurrent MCVE was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified for disease location (cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm, coronary artery disease, or polyvascular disease, defined as >= 2 vascular locations). RESULTS Five-year risks for recurrent MCVE were 9% in cerebrovascular disease, 9% in peripheral artery disease, 20% in those with an abdominal aortic aneurysm, 7% in coronary artery disease, and 21% in polyvascular disease. Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of recurrent MCVE in coronary artery disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.67; 95% CI 1.25-2.21) and seemed to increase the risk in cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.36; 95% CI 0.90-2.07), while being no risk factor in polyvascular disease (HR 1.12; 95% CI 0.83-1.50). Results for patients with peripheral artery disease (HR 1.42; 95% CI 0.79-2.56) or an abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.23-3.68) were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of recurrent MCVE in patients with coronary artery disease, but there is no convincing evidence that it is a major risk factor for subsequent MCVE in all patients with symptomatic vascular disease

Data-model comparison of soil–water δ 18 O at a temperate site in N. Spain with implications for interpreting speleothem δ 18 O

An understanding of how seasonal and longer-term d18O signals in meteoric precipitation (d18Op) are modified by percolation through soils is essential to link temporal changes in speleothem d18O to surface climatic conditions. This study focuses on modifications that occur in a relatively thick soil above a temperate cave site (La Garma, N. Spain). Monthly soil-water d18O (d18Osw) values at a depth of 60 cm through the year is only 14% of the range in d18Op, implying substantial homogenisation and attenuation of seasonal signals. A striking feature is that d18Osw values at 60 cm depth are lowest in summer and highest in winter, the opposite (anti-phase) to that observed in rainfall. Soil-water residence times of up to circa 6 months in the upper 60 cm of soil, and a matrix flow, piston-type infiltration behaviour with mixing is inferred. Evaporative effects on recovered soil-water d18O are minimal at this wet temperate site, in contrast with published results from arid and semi-arid sites. A soil-water model is presented to estimate monthly d18Osw as a function of air temperature and d18Op, incorporating effects such as variations in the amount of infiltrated water, changes in the ratio between evaporation and transpiration, mixing with antecedent soil moisture and small enrichments in 18O linked to evaporation and summer moisture deficits. Our model reproduces the observed d18Osw results, and produces d18Osw outputs in excellent agreement with d18O data for two monitored drip-water sites at La Garma cave that exhibit seasonal d18O variability. We conclude that simple evapotranspiration models that permit infiltration during months that have a positive hydrological balance only tend to under-estimate summer rainfall contributions. Overall, the study provides an improved framework for predicting d18Osw trends at temperate sites such as La Garma that have a relatively thick soil cover, as well as for understanding seasonal ranges and trends in d18O in cave drip-sites

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT