Red deer reveal spatial risks of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus infection

In press.Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) continues to cause new human cases in Iberia while its spatial distribution and ecological determinants remain unknown. The virus remains active in a silent tick-animal cycle to which animals contribute maintaining the tick populations and the virus itself. Wild ungulates, in particular red deer, are essential hosts for Hyalomma ticks in Iberia, which are the principal competent vector of CCHFV. Red deer could be an excellent model to understand the ecological determinants of CCHFV as well as to predict infection risks for humans because it is large, gregarious, abundant and the principal host for Hyalomma lusitanicum. We designed a cross-sectional study, analysed the presence of CCHFV antibodies in 1444 deer from 82 populations, and statistically modelled exposure risk with host and environmental predictors. The best-fitted statistical model was projected for peninsular Spain to map infection risks. Fifty out of 82 deer populations were seropositive, with individual population prevalence as high as 88%. The highest prevalence of exposure to CCHFV occurred in the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Climate and ungulate abundance were the most influential predictors of the risk of exposure to the virus. The highest risk regions were those where H. lusitanicum is most abundant. Eight of the nine primary human cases occurred in or bordering these regions, demonstrating that the model predicts human infection risk accurately. A recent human case of CCHF occurred in northwestern Spain, a region that the model predicted as low risk, pointing out that it needs improvement to capture all determinants of the CCHFV infection risk. In this study, we have been able to identify the main ecological determinants of CCHFV, and we have also managed to create an accurate model to assess the risk of CCHFV infection.This study has been funded by the Spanish Ministry for the Science and Innovation (MCI) through projects CGL2017-89866-R & E-RTA2015-0002-C02-02, and by the Regional Government of Castilla-La Mancha and the European Social Fund (ESF) through project SBPLY/19/180501/000321. RC-M, LC-M, SJ-R and JM-G would like to thank the MCI, ESF and the University of Castilla-La Mancha for their support through contracts PRE2018-083801, PEJ2018-003155-A, 2018/12504 and BES-2015-072206, respectively. BC was supported by FCT-Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (2020.04872.BD). DG-B would like to thank MCI and Instituto de Salud Carlos III (CD19CIII/00011) for funding him.Peer reviewe

Fungal Planet description sheets: 868-950

Novel species of fungi described in this study include those from various countries as follows: Australia, Chaetomella pseudocircinoseta and Coniella pseudodiospyri on Eucalyptus microcorys leaves, Cladophialophora eucalypti, Teratosphaeria dunnii and Vermiculariopsiella dunnii on Eucalyptus dunnii leaves, Cylindrium grande and Hypsotheca eucalyptorum on Eucalyptus grandis leaves, Elsinoe salignae on Eucalyptus saligna leaves, Marasmius lebeliae on litter of regenerating subtropical rainforest, Phialoseptomonium eucalypti (incl. Phialoseptomonium gen. nov.) on Eucalyptus grandis × camaldulensis leaves, Phlogicylindrium pawpawense on Eucalyptus tereticornis leaves, Phyllosticta longicauda as an endophyte from healthy Eustrephus latifolius leaves, Pseudosydowia eucalyptorum on Eucalyptus sp. leaves, Saitozyma wallum on Banksia aemula leaves, Teratosphaeria henryi on Corymbia henryi leaves. Brazil, Aspergillus bezerrae, Backusella azygospora, Mariannaea terricola and Talaromyces pernambucoensis from soil, Calonectria matogrossensis on Eucalyptus urophylla leaves, Calvatia brasiliensis on soil, Carcinomyces nordestinensis on Bromelia antiacantha leaves, Dendryphiella stromaticola on small branches of an unidentified plant, Nigrospora brasiliensis on Nopalea cochenillifera leaves, Penicillium alagoense as a leaf endophyte on a Miconia sp., Podosordaria nigrobrunnea on dung, Spegazzinia bromeliacearum as a leaf endophyte on Tilandsia catimbauensis, Xylobolus brasiliensis on decaying wood. Bulgaria, Kazachstania molopis from the gut of the beetle Molops piceus. Croatia, Mollisia endocrystallina from a fallen decorticated Picea abies tree trunk. Ecuador, Hygrocybe rodomaculata on soil. Hungary, Alfoldia vorosii (incl.Alfoldia gen. nov.) from Juniperus communis roots, Kiskunsagia ubrizsyi (incl. Kiskunsagia gen. nov.) from Fumana procumbens roots. India, Aureobasidium tremulum as laboratory contaminant, Leucosporidium himalayensis and Naganishia indica from windblown dust on glaciers. Italy, Neodevriesia cycadicola on Cycas sp. leaves, Pseudocercospora pseudomyrticola on Myrtus communis leaves, Ramularia pistaciae on Pistacia lentiscus leaves, Neognomoniopsis quercina (incl. Neognomoniopsis gen. nov.) on Quercus ilex leaves. Japan, Diaporthe fructicola on Passiflora edulis × P. edulis f. flavicarpa fruit, Entoloma nipponicum on leaf litter in a mixed Cryptomeria japonica and Acer spp. forest. Macedonia, Astraeus macedonicus on soil. Malaysia, Fusicladium eucalyptigenum on Eucalyptus sp. twigs, Neoacrodontiella eucalypti (incl. Neoacrodontiella gen. nov.) on Eucalyptus urophylla leaves. Mozambique, Meliola gorongosensis on dead Philenoptera violacea leaflets. Nepal, Coniochaeta dendrobiicola from Dendriobium lognicornu roots. New Zealand, Neodevriesia sexualis and Thozetella neonivea on Archontophoenix cunninghamiana leaves. Norway, Calophoma sandfjordenica from a piece of board on a rocky shoreline, Clavaria parvispora on soil, Didymella finnmarkica from a piece of Pinus sylvestris driftwood. Poland, Sugiyamaella trypani from soil. Portugal, Colletotrichum feijoicola from Acca sellowiana. Russia, Crepidotus tobolensis on Populus tremula debris, Entoloma ekaterinae, Entoloma erhardii and Suillus gastroflavus on soil, Nakazawaea ambrosiae from the galleries of Ips typographus under the bark of Picea abies. Slovenia, Pluteus ludwigii on twigs of broadleaved trees. South Africa, Anungitiomyces stellenboschiensis (incl. Anungitiomyces gen. nov.) and Niesslia stellenboschiana on Eucalyptus sp. leaves, Beltraniella pseudoportoricensis on Podocarpus falcatus leaf litter, Corynespora encephalarti on Encephalartos sp. leaves, Cytospora pavettae on Pavetta revoluta leaves, Helminthosporium erythrinicola on Erythrina humeana leaves, Helminthosporium syzygii on a Syzygium sp. barkcanker, Libertasomyces aloeticus on Aloe sp. leaves, Penicillium lunae from Musa sp. fruit, Phyllosticta lauridiae on Lauridia tetragona leaves, Pseudotruncatella bolusanthi (incl. Pseudotruncatellaceae fam. nov.) and Dactylella bolusanthi on Bolusanthus speciosus leaves. Spain, Apenidiella foetida on submerged plant debris, Inocybe grammatoides on Quercus ilex subsp. ilex forest humus, Ossicaulis salomii on soil, Phialemonium guarroi from soil. Thailand, Pantospora chromolaenae on Chromolaena odorata leaves. Ukraine, Cadophora helianthi from Helianthus annuus stems. USA, Boletus pseudopinophilus on soil under slash pine, Botryotrichum foricae, Penicillium americanum and Penicillium minnesotense from air. Vietnam, Lycoperdon vietnamense on soil. Morphological and culture characteristics are supported by DNA barcodes

Delivery modulation in silica mesoporous supports via alkyl chain pore outlet decoration

This article focuses on the study of the release rate in a family of modified silica mesoporous supports. A collection of solids containing ethyl, butyl, hexyl, octyl, decyl, octadecyl, docosyl, and triacontyl groups anchored on the pore outlets of mesoporous MCM-41 has been prepared and characterized. Controlled release from pore voids has been studied through the delivery of the dye complex tris(2,2¿-bipyridyl)ruthenium(II). Delivery rates were found to be dependent on the alkyl chain length anchored on the pore outlets of the mesoporous scaffolding. Moreover, release rates follow a Higuchi diffusion model, and Higuchi constants for the different hybrid solids have been calculated. A decrease of the Higuchi constants was observed as the alkyl chain used to tune the release profile is longer, confirming the effect that the different alkyl chains anchored into the pore mouths exerted on the delivery of the cargo. Furthermore, to better understand the relation between pore outlets decoration and release rate, studies using molecular dynamics simulations employing force-field methods have been carried out. A good agreement between the calculations and the experimental observations was observed.Financial support from the Spanish Government (projects MAT2009-14564-C04-01 and MAT2009-14564-C04-04) and the Generalitat Valencia (project PROMETEO/2009/016) is gratefully acknowledged.Aznar Gimeno, E.; Sancenón Galarza, F.; Marcos Martínez, MD.; Martínez Mañez, R.; Stroeve, P.; Cano, J.; Amoros Del Toro, P. (2012). Delivery modulation in silica mesoporous supports via alkyl chain pore outlet decoration. Langmuir. 28:2986-2996. https://doi.org/10.1021/la204438jS298629962

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Mitochondrial physiology

As the knowledge base and importance of mitochondrial physiology to evolution, health and disease expands, the necessity for harmonizing the terminology concerning mitochondrial respiratory states and rates has become increasingly apparent. The chemiosmotic theory establishes the mechanism of energy transformation and coupling in oxidative phosphorylation. The unifying concept of the protonmotive force provides the framework for developing a consistent theoretical foundation of mitochondrial physiology and bioenergetics. We follow the latest SI guidelines and those of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) on terminology in physical chemistry, extended by considerations of open systems and thermodynamics of irreversible processes. The concept-driven constructive terminology incorporates the meaning of each quantity and aligns concepts and symbols with the nomenclature of classical bioenergetics. We endeavour to provide a balanced view of mitochondrial respiratory control and a critical discussion on reporting data of mitochondrial respiration in terms of metabolic flows and fluxes. Uniform standards for evaluation of respiratory states and rates will ultimately contribute to reproducibility between laboratories and thus support the development of data repositories of mitochondrial respiratory function in species, tissues, and cells. Clarity of concept and consistency of nomenclature facilitate effective transdisciplinary communication, education, and ultimately further discovery

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2017 includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. METHODS: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator