The importance of sea ice area biases in 21st century multimodel projections of Antarctic temperature and precipitation

Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study explores the impacts of these biases on multimodel uncertainty in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble projections of 21st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation, and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 future scenario (2070–2099) and historical (1970–1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature, and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g., cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71, and −0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5C and 2.0C warming and implications for regional impacts

This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5◦C and 5 2.0◦C of warming using the HAPPI “Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Im- pacts” ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterizing and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5◦C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental 10 design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5◦C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland 15 shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5◦C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the 20 Mediterranean, western Europe and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2◦C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming five times more likely

Antarctic last interglacial isotope peak in response to sea ice retreat not ice-sheet collapse

Several studies have suggested that sea-level rise during the last interglacial implies retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The prevalent hypothesis is that the retreat coincided with the peak Antarctic temperature and stable water isotope values from 128,000 years ago (128 ka); very early in the last interglacial. Here, by analysing climate model simulations of last interglacial WAIS loss featuring water isotopes, we show instead that the isotopic response to WAIS loss is in opposition to the isotopic evidence at 128 ka. Instead, a reduction in winter sea ice area of 65±7% fully explains the 128 ka ice core evidence. Our finding of a marked retreat of the sea ice at 128 ka demonstrates the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice extent to climate warming

The Iceland Greenland Seas Project

A coordinated atmosphere-ocean research project, centered on a rare wintertime field campaign to the Iceland and Greenland Seas, seeks to determine the location and causes of dense water formation by cold-air outbreaks. The Iceland Greenland Seas Project (IGP) is a coordinated atmosphere-ocean research program investigating climate processes in the source region of the densest waters of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. During February and March 2018, a field campaign was executed over the Iceland and southern Greenland Seas that utilized a range of observing platforms to investigate critical processes in the region – including a research vessel, a research aircraft, moorings, sea gliders, floats and a meteorological buoy. A remarkable feature of the field campaign was the highly-coordinated deployment of the observing platforms, whereby the research vessel and aircraft tracks were planned in concert to allow simultaneous sampling of the atmosphere, the ocean and their interactions. This joint planning was supported by tailor-made convection-permitting weather forecasts and novel diagnostics from an ensemble prediction system. The scientific aims of the IGP are to characterize the atmospheric forcing and the ocean response of coupled processes; in particular, cold-air outbreaks in the vicinity of the marginal-ice zone and their triggering of oceanic heat loss, and the role of freshwater in the generation of dense water masses. The campaign observed the lifecycle of a long-lasting cold-air outbreak over the Iceland Sea and the development of a cold-air outbreak over the Greenland Sea. Repeated profiling revealed the immediate impact on the ocean, while a comprehensive hydrographic survey provided a rare picture of these subpolar seas in winter. A joint atmosphere-ocean approach is also being used in the analysis phase, with coupled observational analysis and coordinated numerical modelling activities underway

State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between ∼6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200–1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A.D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4° ± 1°C, and sea ice extent will decrease by ∼30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questions about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth\u27s climate and oceans

Формування та розвиток загальної теорії стійкості (середина XVIII ст. — 30-і рр. ХХ ст.)

У статті розглянуто історію вивчення стійкості (середина XVIII — початок XX ст., світовий контекст). Досліджено внесок А. Пуанкаре та О.М. Ляпунова в розвиток загальної теорії стійкості. Показано розвиток їх ідей у працях російських та українських учених.В статье рассмотрена история изучения устойчивости (середина XVIII — начало XX в., мировой контекст). Исследован вклад французского ученого А. Пуанкаре и русского ученого А.М. Ляпунова в развитие общей теории устойчивости. Показано дальнейшее развитие их идей в трудах русских и украинских ученых.The history of basic research in stability is given. Contributions from H.Poincaré, a French mathematician, mechanic and physicist, and O. Lapunov, a soviet mathematician and mechanic (working in the Kharkiv university) to development of the general theory of stability are shown. In 1892—1902, O. Lyapunov constructed an original robust mathematical apparatus to study stability of motion. Development of ideas and methods of H.Poincar of H.Poincar³e and O. Lapunov in works of later Ukrainian and Russian scientists is shown

Emerging signals of climate change from the equator to the poles: new insights into a warming world

The reality of human-induced climate change is unequivocal and exerts an ever-increasing global impact. Access to the latest scientific information on current climate change and projection of future trends is important for planning adaptation measures and for informing international efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Identification of hazards and risks may be used to assess vulnerability, determine limits to adaptation, and enhance resilience to climate change. This article highlights how recent research programs are continuing to elucidate current processes and advance projections across major climate systems and identifies remaining knowledge gaps. Key findings include projected future increases in monsoon rainfall, resulting from a changing balance between the rainfall-reducing effect of aerosols and rainfall-increasing GHGs; a strengthening of the storm track in the North Atlantic; an increase in the fraction of precipitation that falls as rain at both poles; an increase in the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, along with changes in ENSO teleconnections to North America and Europe; and an increase in the frequency of hazardous hot-humid extremes. These changes have the potential to increase risks to both human and natural systems. Nevertheless, these risks may be reduced via urgent, science-led adaptation and resilience measures and by reductions in GHGs