Are Midtwentieth Century Forced Changes in North Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity Detectable?

The impact of anthropogenic forcings on tropical North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity (PI) is evaluated in Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 models for the period 1958–2005. Eleven models are examined, but only seven models have a forced response that is distinguishable from internal variability. The use of discriminant analysis to optimize detectability does not yield a clear, common climate change signal. Of the seven models with a significant response, one has a negative linear trend while two have a positive linear trend. The trend in PI is not even consistent among reanalyses, although this difference is not statistically significant because of large uncertainties. Furthermore, estimates of PI internal variability have significantly different variances among different reanalysis products. These disagreements between models, reanalysis products, and between models and reanalyses, in conjunction with relatively large uncertainties, highlight the difficulty of detecting and attributing observed changes in North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity

Systematic Estimates of Decadal Predictability for Six CGCMs

Initial-value predictability measures the degree to which the initial state can influence predictions. In this paper, the initial-value predictability of six atmosphere–ocean general circulation models in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is quantified and contrasted by analyzing long control integrations with time invariant external conditions. Through the application of analog and multivariate linear regression methodologies, average predictability properties are estimated for forecasts initiated from every state on the control trajectories. For basinwide measures of predictability, the influence of the initial state tends to last for roughly a decade in both basins, but this limit varies widely among the models, especially in the North Atlantic. Within each basin, predictability varies regionally by as much as a factor of 10 for a given model, and the locations of highest predictability are different for each model. Model-to-model variations in predictability are also seen in the behavior of prominent intrinsic basin modes. Predictability is primarily determined by the mean of forecast distributions rather than the spread about the mean. Horizontal propagation plays a large role in the evolution of these signals and is therefore a key factor in differentiating the predictability of the various models

Ab-initio calculations of the optical properties of the Si(113)3x2ADI surface

We investigated the stable silicon (113) surface with a 3x2ADI reconstruction by ab-initio methods. The ground state properties have been obtained using the density-functional theory. We present the dispersion of the electronic band structure, where the surface bands have been distinguished from the projected bulk bands by calculating their localization in the slab. The optical spectra, here the reflectance anisotropy (RAS), have been obtained within the independent particle random phase approximation. We identified surface features in the spectra tracing them back to the responsible electronic states and, studied their localization in the slab. A comparison with available experimental data for the band structure and the RAS shows a good agreement.Comment: 10 pages, 10 figure

Reproduction of Twentieth Century Intradecadal to Multidecadal Surface Temperature Variability in Radiatively Forced Coupled Climate Models

[1] Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 simulations that included time-varying radiative forcings were ranked according to their ability to consistently reproduce twentieth century intradecadal to multidecadal (IMD) surface temperature variability at the 5° by 5° spatial scale. IMD variability was identified using the running Mann-Whitney Z method. Model rankings were given context by comparing the IMD variability in preindustrial control runs to observations and by contrasting the IMD variability among the ensemble members within each model. These experiments confirmed that the inclusion of time-varying external forcings brought simulations into closer agreement with observations. Additionally, they illustrated that the magnitude of unforced variability differed between models. This led to a supplementary metric that assessed model ability to reproduce observations while accounting for each model\u27s own degree of unforced variability. These two metrics revealed that discernable differences in skill exist between models and that none of the models reproduced observations at their theoretical optimum level. Overall, these results demonstrate a methodology for assessing coupled models relative to each other within a multimodel framework

Emergence and equilibration of jets in beta-plane turbulence: applications of Stochastic Structural Stability Theory

Stochastic Structural Stability Theory (S3T) provides analytical methods for understanding the emergence and equilibration of jets from the turbulence in planetary atmospheres based on the dynamics of the statistical mean state of the turbulence closed at second order. Predictions for formation and equilibration of turbulent jets made using S3T are critically compared with results of simulations made using the associated quasi-linear and nonlinear models. S3T predicts the observed bifurcation behavior associated with the emergence of jets, their equilibration and their breakdown as a function of parameters. Quantitative differences in bifurcation parameter values between predictions of S3T and results of nonlinear simulations are traced to modification of the eddy spectrum which results from two processes: nonlinear eddy-eddy interactions and formation of discrete non-zonal structures. Remarkably, these non-zonal structures, which substantially modify the turbulence spectrum, are found to arise from S3T instability. Formation as linear instabilities and equilibration at finite amplitude of multiple equilibria for identical parameter values in the form of jets with distinct meridional wavenumbers is verified as is the existence at equilibrium of finite amplitude non-zonal structures in the form of nonlinearly modified Rossby waves. When zonal jets and nonlinearly modified Rossby waves coexist at finite amplitude the jet structure is generally found to dominate even if it is linearly less unstable. The physical reality of the manifold of S3T jets and non-zonal structures is underscored by the existence in nonlinear simulations of jet structure at subcritical S3T parameter values which are identified with stable S3T jet modes excited by turbulent fluctuations.Comment: 18 pages, 18 figures, submitted to the Journal of the Atmospheric Science

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheric circulation is much lower. Recent advances in seasonal and annual prediction show that the signal-to-noise ratio can be too small in climate models, requiring a very large ensemble to extract the predictable signal. Here, we reassess decadal prediction skill using a much larger ensemble than previously available, and reveal significant skill for precipitation over land and atmospheric circulation, in addition to surface temperature. We further propose a more powerful approach than used previously to evaluate the benefit of initialisation with observations, improving our understanding of the sources of skill. Our results show that decadal climate is more predictable than previously thought and will aid society to prepare for, and adapt to, ongoing climate variability and change.D.M.S., A.A.S., N.J.D., L.H. and R.E. were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra and by the European Commission Horizon 2020 EUCP project (GA 776613). L.P.C. was supported by the Spanish MINECO HIATUS (CGL2015-70353-R) project. F.J.D.R. was supported by the H2020 EUCP (GA 776613) and the Spanish MINECO CLINSA (CGL2017-85791-R) projects. W.A. M. and H.P. were supported by the German Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the project MiKlip (grant 01LP1519A). The NCAR contribution was supported by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Program Office under Climate Variability and Predictability Program Grant NA13OAR4310138 and by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) Collaborative Research EaSM2 Grant OCE-1243015. The NCAR contribution is also based upon work supported by NCAR, which is a major facility sponsored by the US NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977. The Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) was generated using computational resources provided by the US National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, which is supported by the Office of Science of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231, as well as by an Accelerated Scientific Discovery grant for Cheyenne (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99HX) that was awarded by NCAR’s Computational and Information System Laboratory.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Retrospective‐cost‐based adaptive model refinement for the ionosphere and thermosphere

Mathematical models of physical phenomena are of critical importance in virtually all applications of science and technology. This paper addresses the problem of how to use data to improve the fidelity of a given model. We approach this problem using retrospective cost optimization, which uses data to recursively update an unknown subsystem interconnected to a known system. Applications of this technique are relevant to applications that depend on large‐scale models based on first‐principles physics, such as the global ionosphere–thermosphere model (GITM). Using GITM as the truth model, we demonstrate that measurements can be used to identify unknown physics. Specifically, we estimate static thermal conductivity parameters, as well as a dynamic cooling process. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 4: 446–458, 2011Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/86874/1/10127_ftp.pd

Three-dimensional reconstruction using stereoradiography for evaluating adult spinal deformity: a reproducibility study.

PURPOSE: In addition to the sagittal alignment, impact of transverse plane parameters (TPP) and rotatory subluxation on patients reported outcomes were highlighted. One of the hypotheses for genesis of degenerative scoliosis is disc degeneration with increased axial vertebral (AVR) and intervertebral rotation (AIR). Therefore, TPP analysis at early stage of the scoliosis seems of particular interest. This study aims at assessing reliability of tridimensional (3D) reconstructions of adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients. METHODS: Thirty ASD patients underwent biplanar radiographs and were divided into two groups (Cobb angle >30° or <30°). Spinal parameters and TPP (apical AVR, AIR of upper and lower level of main curve) were measured. Four operators performed 3D reconstructions twice. Intra and inter-observer reliabilities were analyzed using ISO standard 5725-2, to quantify the global standard deviation of reproducibility (S R). RESULTS: Mean Cobb angle was 31°, mean age 55 years (70% of female). Mean values of apical AVR, upper and lower level AIR were, respectively, 16° ± 15°, 6° ± 6° and 5° ± 5°. Spinopelvic parameters S R were below 4.5°. For Cobb angle <30°, S R was 7.8°, 9.6°, 4.5° and 4.9°, respectively, for AVR apex, torsion index, upper and lower AIR. Reliability was worse in the group of patients with Cobb angle above 30°. CONCLUSIONS: 3D analysis was reliable for Cobb and sagittal parameters. 3D analysis for TPP was reproducible when Cobb is below 30°. However, uncertainty is larger for Cobb above 30°. Nevertheless, 3D reconstructions could help surgeons to anticipate onset of rotatory subluxation while assessing axial rotation evolution for small deformity and choose best delay for surgical treatment