How fast is the Greenland ice sheet melting?

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scambos, T., Straneo, F., & Tedesco, M. How fast is the Greenland ice sheet melting? Arctic Antarctic and Alpine Research, 53(1), (2021): 221–222, https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2021.1946241.THE ISSUE The Greenland Ice Sheet and the glacier-covered areas of Alaska and other Arctic lands are losing ice at an accelerating rate, contributing billions of tons of water to sea level rise. WHY IT MATTERS Ice loss from the ice sheets contributes directly to sea level rise. These losses are likely to increase rapidly as warming in the Arctic continues. Surface melt and runoff is now increasing more quickly than all other factors driving Greenland’s ice loss, although faster glacier outflow remains important. Increased ice loss from Alaska’s glaciers is also due mainly to surface melting. Given these trends, and the rapid warming in the Arctic (twice the global rate of warming), the Arctic is poised to lose ice even more rapidly and raise sea level. STATE OF KNOWLEDGE Since 2000, the net loss of ice from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased five-fold, from 50 billion to about 250 billion tons per year1,2 (362 billion tons is equal to 1 mm in sea level rise). Ice losses in the Gulf of Alaska region have risen from about 40 to 70 billion tons per year3. These trends are confirmed by three independent satellite methods, using gravitational changes, elevation changes, and changes in the mass budget (the net difference between snowfall and the combination of glacier outflow and runoff)1. In total, the Arctic currently contributes approximately 350 billion tons (~1 mm) to sea level each year, primarily from Greenland, Alaska, and Arctic Canada. Recent measurements of the rate of sea level rise are 3.0 mm per year, with the additional rise coming from other glaciers and Antarctica (~0.4. mm) and expansion of the oceans due to warming (~1.7 mm)4. Slightly cooler summer seasons for Greenland in 2013 and 2014, and again in 2017 and 2018, temporarily reduced the rate of ice loss. Ocean temperatures cooled in some places along the western Greenland coast, slowing glacier outflow there5. However, strong melting in 2015, 2016 and 2019 again contributed large amounts of runoff to the ocean2. Because surface melt is closely tied to seasonal weather conditions, it is more variable than ice loss due to increased glacier outflow. Despite this variability, the overall warming trend of Arctic air and ocean has driven greatly increased melting and ice loss in Greenland and Alaska in the past two decades. As spring and summer temperatures have increased, net runoff of meltwater has grown dramatically (Figure 1). Ice loss due to faster glacier flow has remained stable overall and is unlikely to accelerate as rapidly as melting. Current increases in surface melt runoff rate are about twice that of ice loss due to increased ice flow speed1. As intense summer melt seasons like 2012, 2016, and 2019 become more common, further increases in melt runoff are inevitable.This work was supported by the Office of Polar Programs, National Science Foundation, and NSF’s Study of Environmental Arctic Change

Mass Loss of Larsen B Tributary Glaciers (Antarctic Peninsula) Unabated Since 2002

Ice mass loss continues at a high rate among the large glacier tributaries of the Larsen B Ice Shelf following its disintegration in 2002. We evaluate recent mass loss by mapping elevation changes between 2006 and 201011 using differencing of digital elevation models (DEMs). The measurement accuracy of these elevation changes is confirmed by a null test, subtracting DEMs acquired within a few weeks. The overall 2006201011 mass loss rate (9.0 2.1 Gt a-1) is similar to the 2001022006 rate (8.8 1.6 Gt a-1), derived using DEM differencing and laser altimetry. This unchanged overall loss masks a varying pattern of thinning and ice loss for individual glacier basins. On Crane Glacier, the thinning pulse, initially greatest near the calving front, is now broadening and migrating upstream. The largest losses are now observed for the HektoriaGreen glacier basin, having increased by 33 since 2006. Our method has enabled us to resolve large residual uncertainties in the Larsen B sector and confirm its state of ongoing rapid mass loss

Estimating supraglacial lake depth in West Greenland using Landsat 8 and comparison with other multispectral methods

Liquid water stored on the surface of ice sheets and glaciers impacts surface mass balance, ice dynamics, and heat transport. Multispectral remote sensing can be used to detect supraglacial lakes and estimate their depth and area. In this study, we use in situ spectral and bathymetric data to assess lake depth retrieval using the recently launched Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). We also extend our analysis to other multispectral sensors to evaluate their performance with similar methods. Digital elevation models derived from WorldView stereo imagery (pre-lake filling and post-drainage) are used to validate spectrally derived depths, combined with a lake edge determination from imagery. The optimal supraglacial lake depth retrieval is a physically based single-band model applied to two OLI bands independently (red and panchromatic) that are then averaged together. When OLI- and WorldView-derived depths are differenced, they yield a mean and standard deviation of 0.0 ± 1.6 m. This method is then applied to OLI data for the Sermeq Kujalleq (Jakobshavn Isbræ) region of Greenland to study the spatial and intra-seasonal variability of supraglacial lakes during summer 2014. We also give coefficients for estimating supraglacial lake depth using a similar method with other multispectral sensors

The Link Between Climate Warming and Break-Up of Ice Shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula

A review of in situ and remote-sensing data covering the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat: deeply embayed ice fronts; calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events; increasing flow speed; and the presence of melt ponds on the ice-shelf surface in the vicinity of the break-ups. As climate has warmed in the Antarctic Peninsula region, melt-season duration and the extent of ponding have increased. Most break-up events have occurred during longer melt seasons, suggesting that meltwater itself, not just warming, is responsible. Regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged. Melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice-shelf retreat. We use these observations to guide a model of ice-shelf flow and the effects of meltwater. Crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water. We hypothesize (building on Weertman (1973), Hughes (1983) and Van der Veen (1998)) that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat. A thermodynamic finite-element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field, and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater. The model results support the hypothesis

Foehn winds link climate-driven warming to ice shelf evolution in Antarctica

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 120 (2015): 11,037–11,057, doi:10.1002/2015JD023465.Rapid warming of the Antarctic Peninsula over the past several decades has led to extensive surface melting on its eastern side, and the disintegration of the Prince Gustav, Larsen A, and Larsen B ice shelves. The warming trend has been attributed to strengthening of circumpolar westerlies resulting from a positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which is thought to promote more frequent warm, dry, downsloping foehn winds along the lee, or eastern side, of the peninsula. We examined variability in foehn frequency and its relationship to temperature and patterns of synoptic-scale circulation using a multidecadal meteorological record from the Argentine station Matienzo, located between the Larsen A and B embayments. This record was further augmented with a network of six weather stations installed under the U.S. NSF LARsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica, project. Significant warming was observed in all seasons at Matienzo, with the largest seasonal increase occurring in austral winter (+3.71°C between 1962–1972 and 1999–2010). Frequency and duration of foehn events were found to strongly influence regional temperature variability over hourly to seasonal time scales. Surface temperature and foehn winds were also sensitive to climate variability, with both variables exhibiting strong, positive correlations with the SAM index. Concomitant positive trends in foehn frequency, temperature, and SAM are present during austral summer, with sustained foehn events consistently associated with surface melting across the ice sheet and ice shelves. These observations support the notion that increased foehn frequency played a critical role in precipitating the collapse of the Larsen B ice shelf.National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Grant Numbers: ANT-0732983, ANT-0732467, ANT-0732921; NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Grant Number: DGE-1144086; NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Grant Number: NNX12AN48H2016-05-0

Ice Velocity Mapping of Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica by Matching Surface Undulations Measured by Icesat Laser Altimetry

We present a novel method for estimating the surface horizontal velocity on ice shelves using laser altimetrydata from the Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat; 20032009). The method matches undulations measured at crossover points between successive campaigns

Evolution of supraglacial lakes on the Larsen B ice shelf in the decades before it collapsed

The Larsen B ice shelf collapsed in 2002 losing an area twice the size of Greater London to the sea (3,000 km 2), in an event associated with widespread supraglacial lake drainage. Here we use optical and radar satellite imagery to investigate the evolution of the ice shelf's lakes in the decades preceding collapse. We find (1) that lakes spread southward in the preceding decades at a rate commensurate with meltwater saturation of the shelf surface; (2) no trend in lake size, suggesting an active supraglacial drainage network which evacuated excess water off the shelf; and (3) lakes mostly refreeze in winter but the few lakes that do drain are associated with ice breakup 2–4 years later. Given the relative scale of lake drainage and shelf breakup, however, it is not clear from our data whether lake drainage is more likely a cause, or an effect, of ice shelf collapse