Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Reified languages and scripts versus real literacy values and practices: insights from research with young bilinguals in an Islamic state

The main focus of this article is on the multilingual literacy practices and values of English-educated university students (aged 14–20) in Brunei Darussalam, Southeast Asia. Multilingual literacy is used as a lens to examine the impact of globalization on the communicative practices of these young people and to investigate the specific ways in which they are engaging with the new technoscapes of the twenty-first century. The article draws on several research projects carried out between 2001 and 2007 and on case studies of 23 students. The different data sources include literacy diaries, samples of texts produced by the young people, narratives about their literacy histories and diary-based interviews. The article gives an account of the ways in which these young, cosmopolitan Bruneians positioned themselves vis-à-vis the reified language and literacy values encountered in the institutional and ‘regulated’ spaces of their lives and it provides insights into the ways in which they articulated both local and globalised identities through their digital and multilingual literacy practices, in ‘unregulated spaces’, such as on the internet or in SMS messaging with members of their peer group. The article contributes to the growing body of research on digital literacy in multilingual settings and to the debate, within the New Literacy Studies, about how the link between local and global should be conceptualised

HNRNPC haploinsufficiency affects alternative splicing of intellectual disability-associated genes and causes a neurodevelopmental disorder

Heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein C (HNRNPC) is an essential, ubiquitously abundant protein involved in mRNA processing. Genetic variants in other members of the HNRNP family have been associated with neurodevelopmental disorders. Here, we describe 13 individuals with global developmental delay, intellectual disability, behavioral abnormalities, and subtle facial dysmorphology with heterozygous HNRNPC germline variants. Five of them bear an identical in-frame deletion of nine amino acids in the extreme C terminus. To study the effect of this recurrent variant as well as HNRNPC haploinsufficiency, we used induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) and fibroblasts obtained from affected individuals. While protein localization and oligomerization were unaffected by the recurrent C-terminal deletion variant, total HNRNPC levels were decreased. Previously, reduced HNRNPC levels have been associated with changes in alternative splicing. Therefore, we performed a meta-analysis on published RNA-seq datasets of three different cell lines to identify a ubiquitous HNRNPC-dependent signature of alternative spliced exons. The identified signature was not only confirmed in fibroblasts obtained from an affected individual but also showed a significant enrichment for genes associated with intellectual disability. Hence, we assessed the effect of decreased and increased levels of HNRNPC on neuronal arborization and neuronal migration and found that either condition affects neuronal function. Taken together, our data indicate that HNRNPC haploinsufficiency affects alternative splicing of multiple intellectual disability-associated genes and that the developing brain is sensitive to aberrant levels of HNRNPC. Hence, our data strongly support the inclusion of HNRNPC to the family of HNRNP-related neurodevelopmental disorders

Measurement of the BB−^{-} →\rightarrow DD0^{0}ℓ\ell−^{-}νˉ\bar{\nu}ℓ_{\ell} Branching Fraction in 62.8 fb−1^{-1} of Belle II data

We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the semileptonic decay $B$$^{-}$ $\rightarrow$ $D$$^{0}$$\ell$$^{-}$$\bar{\nu}$$_{\ell}$ (and its charge conjugate) using 62.8 fb$^{-1}$ of $\Upsilon$(4$S$) $\rightarrow$ $B$$\bar{B}$ data recorded by the Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB asymmetric-energy $e$$^{+}$ $e$$^{-}$ collider. The neutral charm meson is searched for in the decay mode $D$$^{0}$ $\rightarrow$ $K$$^{-}$ $\pi$$^{+}$ and combined with a properly charged identified lepton (electron or muon) to reconstruct this decay. No reconstruction of the second $B$ meson in the $\Upsilon$(4$S$) event is performed. We obtain $B$($D$$^{0}$$\ell$$^{-}$$\bar{\nu}$$_{\ell}$) = (2.29 $\pm$ 0.05 $_{stat}$ $\pm$ 0.08$_{syst}$, in agreement with the world average of this decay. We also determine the ratio of the electron to muon branching fractions to be $R$($e$/$\mu$) = 1.04 $\pm$ 0.05$_{stat}$ $\pm$ 0.03$_{syst}$ and observe no deviation from lepton universality

Measurement of the BB−^{-} →\rightarrow DD0^{0}ℓ\ell−^{-}νˉ\bar{\nu}ℓ_{\ell} Branching Fraction in 62.8 fb−1^{-1} of Belle II data

We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the semileptonic decay $B$$^{-}$ $\rightarrow$ $D$$^{0}$$\ell$$^{-}$$\bar{\nu}$$_{\ell}$ (and its charge conjugate) using 62.8 fb$^{-1}$ of $\Upsilon$(4$S$) $\rightarrow$ $B$$\bar{B}$ data recorded by the Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB asymmetric-energy $e$$^{+}$ $e$$^{-}$ collider. The neutral charm meson is searched for in the decay mode $D$$^{0}$ $\rightarrow$ $K$$^{-}$ $\pi$$^{+}$ and combined with a properly charged identified lepton (electron or muon) to reconstruct this decay. No reconstruction of the second $B$ meson in the $\Upsilon$(4$S$) event is performed. We obtain $B$($D$$^{0}$$\ell$$^{-}$$\bar{\nu}$$_{\ell}$) = (2.29 $\pm$ 0.05 $_{stat}$ $\pm$ 0.08$_{syst}$, in agreement with the world average of this decay. We also determine the ratio of the electron to muon branching fractions to be $R$($e$/$\mu$) = 1.04 $\pm$ 0.05$_{stat}$ $\pm$ 0.03$_{syst}$ and observe no deviation from lepton universality

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2 (95 uncertainty interval UI 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian metaregression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings: All risks combined account for 57·2 (95 uncertainty interval UI 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks