Methyl Bromide In Preindustrial Air: Measurements From an Antarctic Ice Core

This paper presents the first ice core measurements of methyl bromide (CH3Br). Samples from a shallow Antarctic ice core (Siple Dome, West Antarctica), ranging in mean gas dates from 1671 to 1942, had a mean CH3Br mixing ratio of 5.8 ppt. These results extend the existing historical record derived from air and Antarctic firn air to about 350 years before present. Model simulations illustrate that the ice core results are consistent with estimates of the impact of anthropogenic activity ( fumigation, combustion, and biomass burning) on the atmospheric CH3Br burden, given the large current uncertainties in the modern atmospheric CH3Br budget. A preindustrial scenario assuming no fumigation, no combustion, and a 75% reduction in biomass-burning sources yields aSouthern Hemisphere mean mixing ratio of 5.8 ppt, in good agreement with the ice core results. There is a significant imbalance between the known CH3Br sources and sinks in the modern atmospheric CH3Br budget. The ice core data do not sufficiently constrain the model to determine how much of the unknown source\u27\u27 was present in the preindustrial budget. The results do indicate that most of the southern hemispheric component of this unknown source\u27\u27 is not anthropogenic

Latitudinal distribution of reactive iodine in the Eastern Pacific and its link to open ocean sources

Ship-based Multi-Axis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy measurements of iodine monoxide (IO) and atmospheric and seawater Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometer observations of methyl iodide (CH3I) were made in the Eastern Pacific marine boundary layer during April 2010 as a part of the HaloCarbon Air Sea Transect-Pacific (HaloCAST-P) scientific cruise. The presence of IO in the open ocean environment was confirmed, with a maximum differential slant column density of 5 × 1013 molecules cm−2 along the 1° elevation angle (corresponding to approximately 1 pptv) measured in the oligotrophic region of the Southeastern Pacific. Such low IO mixing ratios and their observed geographical distribution are inconsistent with satellite estimates and with previous understanding of oceanic sources of iodine. A strong correlation was observed between reactive iodine (defined as IO + I) and CH3I, suggesting common sources

Long-term carbon sink in Borneo's forests halted by drought and vulnerable to edge effects

Less than half of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions remain in the atmosphere. While carbon balance models imply large carbon uptake in tropical forests, direct on-the-ground observations are still lacking in Southeast Asia. Here, using long-term plot monitoring records of up to half a century, we find that intact forests in Borneo gained 0.43 Mg C ha‾¹ per year (95% CI 0.14—0.72, mean period 1988-2010) above-ground live biomass. These results closely match those from African and Amazonian plot networks, suggesting that the world's remaining intact tropical forests are now en masse out-of-equilibrium. Although both pan-tropical and long-term, the sink in remaining intact forests appears vulnerable to climate and land use changes. Across Borneo the 1997-1998 El Niño drought temporarily halted the carbon sink by increasing tree mortality, while fragmentation persistently offset the sink and turned many edge-affected forests into a carbon source to the atmosphere

Planck 2013 results. XXII. Constraints on inflation

We analyse the implications of the Planck data for cosmic inflation. The Planck nominal mission temperature anisotropy measurements, combined with the WMAP large-angle polarization, constrain the scalar spectral index to be ns = 0:9603 _ 0:0073, ruling out exact scale invariance at over 5_: Planck establishes an upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio of r < 0:11 (95% CL). The Planck data thus shrink the space of allowed standard inflationary models, preferring potentials with V00 < 0. Exponential potential models, the simplest hybrid inflationary models, and monomial potential models of degree n _ 2 do not provide a good fit to the data. Planck does not find statistically significant running of the scalar spectral index, obtaining dns=dln k = 0:0134 _ 0:0090. We verify these conclusions through a numerical analysis, which makes no slowroll approximation, and carry out a Bayesian parameter estimation and model-selection analysis for a number of inflationary models including monomial, natural, and hilltop potentials. For each model, we present the Planck constraints on the parameters of the potential and explore several possibilities for the post-inflationary entropy generation epoch, thus obtaining nontrivial data-driven constraints. We also present a direct reconstruction of the observable range of the inflaton potential. Unless a quartic term is allowed in the potential, we find results consistent with second-order slow-roll predictions. We also investigate whether the primordial power spectrum contains any features. We find that models with a parameterized oscillatory feature improve the fit by __2 e_ _ 10; however, Bayesian evidence does not prefer these models. We constrain several single-field inflation models with generalized Lagrangians by combining power spectrum data with Planck bounds on fNL. Planck constrains with unprecedented accuracy the amplitude and possible correlation (with the adiabatic mode) of non-decaying isocurvature fluctuations. The fractional primordial contributions of cold dark matter (CDM) isocurvature modes of the types expected in the curvaton and axion scenarios have upper bounds of 0.25% and 3.9% (95% CL), respectively. In models with arbitrarily correlated CDM or neutrino isocurvature modes, an anticorrelated isocurvature component can improve the _2 e_ by approximately 4 as a result of slightly lowering the theoretical prediction for the ` <_ 40 multipoles relative to the higher multipoles. Nonetheless, the data are consistent with adiabatic initial conditions

SPARC REport No. 7

peer reviewedThe Montreal Protocol (MP) controls the production and consumption of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4 or CTC) and other ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) for emissive uses. CCl4 is a major ODS, accounting for about 12% of the globally averaged inorganic chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere, compared to 14% for CFC-12 in 2012. In spite of the MP controls, there are large ongoing emissions of CCl4 into the atmosphere. Estimates of emissions from various techniques ought to yield similar numbers. However, the recent WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion [WMO, 2014] estimated a 2007-2012 CCl4 bottom-up emission of 1-4 Gg/year (1-4 kilotonnes/year), based on country-by-country reports to UNEP, and a global top-down emissions estimate of 57 Gg/ year, based on atmospheric measurements. This 54 Gg/year difference has not been explained. In order to assess the current knowledge on global CCl4 sources and sinks, stakeholders from industrial, governmental, and the scientific communities came together at the “Solving the Mystery of Carbon Tetrachloride” workshop, which was held from 4-6 October 2015 at Empa in Dübendorf, Switzerland. During this workshop, several new findings were brought forward by the participants on CCl4 emissions and related science. • Anthropogenic production and consumption for feedstock and process agent uses (e.g., as approved solvents) are reported to UNEP under the MP. Based on these numbers, global bottom-up emissions of 3 (0-8) Gg/year are estimated for 2007-2013 in this report. This number is also reasonably consistent with this report’s new industry-based bottom-up estimate for fugitive emissions of 2 Gg/year. • By-product emissions from chloromethanes and perchloroethylene plants are newly proposed in this report as significant CCl4 sources, with global emissions estimated from these plants to be 13 Gg/year in 2014. • This report updates the anthropogenic CCl4 emissions estimation as a maximum of ~25 Gg/year. This number is derived by combining the above fugitive and by-product emissions (2 Gg/year and 13 Gg/year, respectively) with 10 Gg/year from legacy emissions plus potential unreported inadvertent emissions from other sources. • Ongoing atmospheric CCl4 measurements within global networks have been exploited for assessing regional emissions. In addition to existing emissions estimates from China and Australia, the workshop prompted research on emissions in the U.S. and Europe. The sum of these four regional emissions is estimated as 21±7.5a Gg/year, but this is not a complete global accounting. These regional top-down emissions estimates also show that most of the CCl4 emissions originate from chemical industrial regions, and are not linked to major population centres. • The total CCl4 lifetime is critical for calculating top-down global emissions. CCl4 is destroyed in the stratosphere, oceans, and soils, complicating the total lifetime estimate. The atmospheric lifetime with respect to stratospheric loss was recently revised to 44 (36-58) years, and remains unchanged in this report. New findings from additional measurement campaigns and reanalysis of physical parameters lead to changes in the ocean lifetime from 94 years to 210 (157-313) years, and in the soil lifetime from 195 years to 375 (288-536) years. • These revised lifetimes lead to an increase of the total lifetime from 26 years in WMO [2014] to 33 (28-41) years. Consequently, CCl4 is lost at a slower rate from the atmosphere. With this new total lifetime, the global top-down emissions calculation decreases from 57 (40-74) Gg/year in WMO [2014] to 40 (25-55) Gg/year. This estimate is relatively consistent with the independent gradient top-down emissions of 30 (25-35) Gg/year, based upon differences between atmospheric measurements of CCl4 in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. In addition, this new total lifetime implies an upper limit of 3-4 Gg/year of natural emissions, based upon newly reported observations of old air in firn snow. These new CCl4 emissions estimates from the workshop make considerable progress toward closing the emissions discrepancy. The new industrial bottom-up emissions estimate (15 Gg/year total) includes emissions from chloromethanes plants (13 Gg/year) and feedstock fugitive emissions (2 Gg/year). When combined with legacy emissions and unreported inadvertent emissions, this could be up to 25 Gg/year. Top-down emissions estimates are: global 40 (25-55) Gg/year, gradient 30 (25-35) Gg/year, and regional 21 (14-28) Gg/year. While the new bottom-up value is still less than the aggregated top-down values, these estimates reconcile the CCl4 budget discrepancy when considered at the edges of their uncertainties

Meta‐Analysis of Genome‐wide Linkage Studies in BMI and Obesity

Objective: The objective was to provide an overall assessment of genetic linkage data of BMI and BMI‐defined obesity using a nonparametric genome scan meta‐analysis. Research Methods and Procedures: We identified 37 published studies containing data on over 31,000 individuals from more than >10,000 families and obtained genome‐wide logarithm of the odds (LOD) scores, non‐parametric linkage (NPL) scores, or maximum likelihood scores (MLS). BMI was analyzed in a pooled set of all studies, as a subgroup of 10 studies that used BMI‐defined obesity, and for subgroups ascertained through type 2 diabetes, hypertension, or subjects of European ancestry. Results: Bins at chromosome 13q13.2‐ q33.1, 12q23‐q24.3 achieved suggestive evidence of linkage to BMI in the pooled analysis and samples ascertained for hypertension. Nominal evidence of linkage to these regions and suggestive evidence for 11q13.3‐22.3 were also observed for BMI‐defined obesity. The FTO obesity gene locus at 16q12.2 also showed nominal evidence for linkage. However, overall distribution of summed rank p values <0.05 is not different from that expected by chance. The strongest evidence was obtained in the families ascertained for hypertension at 9q31.1‐qter and 12p11.21‐q23 (p < 0.01). Conclusion: Despite having substantial statistical power, we did not unequivocally implicate specific loci for BMI or obesity. This may be because genes influencing adiposity are of very small effect, with substantial genetic heterogeneity and variable dependence on environmental factors. However, the observation that the FTO gene maps to one of the highest ranking bins for obesity is interesting and, while not a validation of this approach, indicates that other potential loci identified in this study should be investigated further.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/93663/1/oby.2007.269.pd

CTF3 Design Report: Preliminary Phase

The design of CLIC is based on a two-beam scheme, where the short pulses of high power 30 GHz RF are extracted from a drive beam running parallel to the main beam. The 3rd generation CLIC Test Facility (CTF3) will demonstrate the generation of the drive beam with the appropriate time structure, the extraction of 30 GHz RF power from this beam, as well as acceleration of a probe beam with 30 GHz RF cavities. The project makes maximum use of existing equipment and infrastructure of the LPI complex, which became available after the closure of LEP. In the first stage of the project, the "Preliminary Phase", the existing LIL linac and the EPA ring, both modified to suit the new requirements, are used to investigate the technique of frequency multiplication by means of interleaving bunches from subsequent trains. This report describes the design of this phase

Planck 2013 results. XXVII. Doppler boosting of the CMB : Eppur si muove

Peer reviewe

Planck intermediate results XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the CDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agreement with the cosmological results from the Bayesian framework is excellent, demonstrating the robustness of the Planck results to the statistical methodology. We investigate the inclusion of neutrino masses, where more significant differences may appear due to the non-Gaussian nature of the posterior mass distribution. By applying the Feldman-Cousins prescription, we again obtain results very similar to those of the Bayesian methodology. However, the profile-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) combination (Planck+WP+highL) reveals a minimum well within the unphysical negative-mass region. We show that inclusion of the Planck CMB-lensing information regularizes this issue, and provide a robust frequentist upper limit \u3c3mv 640:26 eV (95% confidence) from the CMB+lensing+BAO data combination. \ua9 ESO 2014